Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020

Mesoscale Discussion 252

March 28, 202040 counties in Arkansas; Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 28, 2020, 2:56 PM CDT for 40 counties in Arkansas; Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 28, 2020, 2:56 PM CDT (19:56 UTC)
Expired
Mar 28, 2020, 4:30 PM CDT
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 42 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2020-03-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 172 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2020-03-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 177 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
172 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-331 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
810 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
177 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
162 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

716 
ACUS11 KWNS 281957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281956 
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-282130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 281956Z - 282130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues in tornado watch 68
with a main threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased along a cold front in
central Arkansas, but storm intensity has remained mostly limited.
The 19Z LZK sounding shows very weak mid-level lapse rates (~6 C/km)
and MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. In addition, winds below 1km are
less than 20 knots while effective shear is 80 knots beneath a 90 kt
500mb jet streak. This meager thermodynamic profile combined with a
highly sheared environment likely explains the lack of robust
updraft growth across central Arkansas despite adequate forcing for
pre-frontal development as parcel acceleration is not great enough
to balance the strong shear. Some brief QLCS tornadoes will be
possible, especially in northern Arkansas later this afternoon and
this evening as the low-level jet strengthens, but otherwise, wind
damage along the line will likely be the primary threat. Even the
wind damage will likely remain isolated, especially in the southern
half of the watch, given the weak low-level flow.

..Bentley.. 03/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33439335 34719289 35569273 36189238 36419157 36459054
            36478990 36288951 34759042 33409138 33389247 33439335

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 28, 12:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 42 more2 hr
Mar 28, 1:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Randolph88 min
Mar 28, 2:10 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Baxter, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Clay and 42 more5 hr
Mar 28, 4:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips, St. Francis61 min
Mar 28, 6:34 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Chicot, Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi and 2 more7 hr
Mar 27, 8:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Madison, Perry, Sainte Genevieve88 min
Mar 27, 8:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Barton, Bates, Benton, Boone, Callaway and 30 more87 min
Mar 27, 10:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Franklin, Gasconade and 11 more6 hr
Mar 27, 11:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Franklin, Gasconade and 9 more89 min
Mar 28, 1:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Gentry, Harrison, Holt, Mercer, Nodaway and 1 more56 min
Mar 28, 7:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Boone, Camden and 27 more85 min
Mar 28, 1:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Chariton, Clark and 18 more117 min
Mar 28, 2:45 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCAdair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Chariton, Clark and 21 more6 hr
Mar 28, 3:53 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin and 20 more5 hr
Mar 28, 5:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.