Tornado Warning 24, NWS Springfield, MO

311 
WWUS53 KSGF 150242
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
842 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

MOC209-213-150300-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-201115T0300Z/
Taney MO-Stone MO-
842 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TANEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STONE COUNTIES...
    
At 841 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Roberson Hollow, or 7 miles southeast of Kimberling
City, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Branson...                        Lake Taneycomo...
Table Rock Lake...                Table Rock State Park...
Hollister...                      Indian Point...
Table Rock...                     Kirbyville...
Blue Eye...                       Ridgedale...
Powersite...                      

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

If on or near Table Roack Lake, get away from the water and move to 
safe shelter immediately. If you can hear thunder, you are close 
enough to be struck by lightning. Severe thunderstorms can produce 
large capsizing waves, even on small bodies of water. Move into dock 
and seek safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a 
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3657 9340 3664 9336 3666 9310 3650 9310
      3650 9339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 246DEG 44KT 3655 9332 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

$$

Hatch

363 
WWUS53 KSGF 150247
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
847 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

MOC209-213-150257-
/O.CAN.KSGF.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-201115T0300Z/
Taney MO-Stone MO-
847 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TANEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STONE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.  However
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for southwestern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3657 9340 3664 9336 3666 9310 3650 9310
      3650 9339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 246DEG 47KT 3658 9322 

$$

Hatch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
544 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and tonight)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Early this afternoon, radar showed the remnants of the morning
showers pushing east through the eastern Ozarks, with some very
spotty showers as far west as the Highway 65 corridor.
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery highlighted an expansive field
of low-level stratus across most of Missouri that is only just
starting to clear out across far southwestern Missouri at the
moment. Surface observations had gusty southerly winds at the
surface of 20-35 mph, though the Joplin ASOS did record a peak
wind of 41 mph earlier today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
southeast Kansas and portions of western Missouri through 6 PM as
wind gusts may approach up to 45 mph in the advisory area.

These strong winds will continue to funnel a feed of upper 50s to
near 60 degree dewpoints into portions of extreme SE Kansas and
far southwestern Missouri later this afternoon. This moisture
along with strong deep vertical shear and an approaching cold
front from Kansas will set up a potential for thunderstorm
initiation for this evening.

Previous forecasts had highlighted the potential for scattered
thunderstorm development beginning by mid-afternoon. However,
lingering low level cloud cover throughout much of the day has
limited diurnal heating area-wide, with current highs only in the
mid 50s, though low to mid 60s are being observed over SE Kansas
and far southwest Missouri. Additionally, CAM model soundings are
holding onto a subtle capping inversion near 800 mb that doesn't
look likely to erode until after sunset (around 6 PM). Some hi-
resolution models do not have the cap eroding until possibly as
late at 7-8pm depending on when the cold front interacts with a
narrow instability plume over southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri.

Some brief supercell storm modes may develop ahead of the cold
front over southwest Missouri and persist for a few hours during
the first half of the evening (6-9pm) as the 850 mb low level jet
strengthens to around 55-60 knots ahead of the approaching cold
front and upper level trough. A more linear mode of convection
should also develop along the surface cold front across southeast
Kansas and western Missouri around this time and quickly race
southeastwards through the late evening prior to exiting the
eastern CWA by around midnight.

While all modes of severe weather will be possible, the primary
threat will be from damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. A lower end
threat for a few brief tornadoes will primarily be tied to any
supercells and enhanced bowing segments in the line of storms
during the first half of the evening, with potential diminishing
with eastward extent as storms outrun the better instability
present across southwest Missouri. A marginal threat for large
hail to the size of quarters cannot be ruled out, as well.

Severe thunderstorm risk quickly subsides behind the front late
this evening and tonight with skies quickly clearing as a drier
air mass gets ushered into the region for Sunday. Winds will
remain gusty out of the west behind the front tonight with low
temperatures tonight in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Gusty winds remain in the region on Sunday with surface high
pressure to our south and departing low pressure off well to our
northeast with a strong pressure gradient in between. Westerly
wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible during the mid morning
and afternoon, combining with afternoon relative humidities as low
as 20-35 percent to produce widespread elevated fire weather
concerns. Confidence is low regarding Red Flag Warning issuance
due to recent rainfall and ample moisture in larger fuels.
Outdoor burning is still discouraged given the gusty winds and dry
air.

Elevated fire weather conditions on a more scattered basis will
also be possible on Monday with dry air and wind gusts upwards of
20-25 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures will be about
5-10 degrees warmer than Sunday, reaching the low to mid 60s over
the majority of the area.

The weather pattern remains dry and quiet throughout all of next
week as an upper level ridge slides into the central CONUS by mid
week. Some breezier southerly winds will return on Wednesday and
Thursday, bringing warmer high temperatures near 70 degrees for
the second half of the week.

Global models hint at our next chance for precipitation in the
extended period returning later next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will move through in 1 to
2 rounds this evening. Expect amendments as timing/strength
becomes more clear. Expect a wind switch behind a cold front that
is triggering the thunderstorms, with improving conditions behind
the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-
     088-089.

KS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-152045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
234 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Some scattered strong to severe storms will be possible
 beginning after dark and continuing through the late evening
 with the approach of a strong cold front. Damaging wind gusts in
 excess of 60 mph will be the main severe weather risk. A few
 brief tornadoes will also be possible, along with hail to the
 size of quarters. Thunderstorms will end from west to east
 across the area by midnight.

 Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 30 to 45 mph will
 be possible into the early evening ahead of the approaching cold
 front. The highest winds will remain across extreme southeast
 Kansas and western Missouri where a Wind Advisory has been
 issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

 Fire weather conditions will be elevated on Sunday with a much
 drier air mass moving into the area late tonight behind the
 front. Winds will remain gusty on Sunday with some gusts of 30
 to 35 mph possible.

 Some elevated fire weather conditions will also be possible on
 Monday afternoon with some wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph and low
 relative humidities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for much
 of the area as all modes of severe storms will be possible.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Rothstein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
709 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W CARTHAGE            37.18N 94.34W
11/14/2020                   JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN INCLUDING LARGE TREES OVER MAINLY
            CENTRAL AND EASTERN JASPER COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
11/14/2020                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MEASURE 61 MPH WINDS. POWER OUTAGES IN
            CENTRAL NEOSHO.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
737 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW OSAGE BEACH       38.14N 92.63W
11/14/2020                   CAMDEN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY ROOF DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
744 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE WILLARD           37.24N 93.40W
11/14/2020  M58 MPH          GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            KSGF ASOS.

&&

TITUS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
814 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

MOZ055>057-069-150315-
Camden MO-Benton MO-Miller MO-Morgan MO-
814 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENTON...NORTHERN
MILLER...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CST...

At 814 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Stover to 11 miles west of
Laurie to 11 miles northwest of Macks Creek. Movement was northeast
at 85 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks...             Eldon...
Versailles...                     Village of Four Seasons...
Lake Ozark...                     Laurie...
Sunrise Beach...                  Tuscumbia...
Barnett...                        Gravois Mills...
Olean...                          Climax Springs...
Bagnell...                        Rocky Mount...
Etterville...                     Lakeview...
Zora...                           Knobby...
Hurricane Deck...                 Barnumton...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3843 9262 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9229
      3832 9225 3833 9219 3831 9220 3804 9306
      3806 9307 3807 9312 3820 9309 3837 9311
      3853 9275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 245DEG 72KT 3832 9306 3822 9305 3811 9307

Albano

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
821 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
11/14/2020                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 POWER POLES DOWN ON GLENSTONE NEAR
            PRIMROSE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

TITUS