Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Springfield, MO

937 
WWUS53 KSGF 150014
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

MOC057-097-109-145-167-150045-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-201115T0045Z/
Newton MO-Polk MO-Lawrence MO-Jasper MO-Dade MO-
614 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST
FOR NEWTON...CENTRAL POLK...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN
JASPER AND DADE COUNTIES...

At 614 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles southwest of Urbana to near Greenfield,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Joplin...            Carthage...
Neosho...                         Bolivar...
Stockton Lake...                  Seneca...
Granby...                         Duquesne...
Greenfield...                     Sarcoxie...
Duenweg...                        Lockwood...
Diamond...                        Loma Linda...
Miller...                         Leawood...
Silver Creek...                   Shoal Creek Drive...
Everton...                        Saginaw...

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 4 and 5, and between mile markers
7 and 36.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 16 and 41.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for southwestern
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 9462 3698 9461 3757 9371 3759 9356
      3774 9326 3780 9319 3767 9317 3742 9353
      3743 9362 3735 9362 3676 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 245DEG 44KT 3776 9334 3736 9386 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Albano

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
544 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and tonight)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Early this afternoon, radar showed the remnants of the morning
showers pushing east through the eastern Ozarks, with some very
spotty showers as far west as the Highway 65 corridor.
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery highlighted an expansive field
of low-level stratus across most of Missouri that is only just
starting to clear out across far southwestern Missouri at the
moment. Surface observations had gusty southerly winds at the
surface of 20-35 mph, though the Joplin ASOS did record a peak
wind of 41 mph earlier today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
southeast Kansas and portions of western Missouri through 6 PM as
wind gusts may approach up to 45 mph in the advisory area.

These strong winds will continue to funnel a feed of upper 50s to
near 60 degree dewpoints into portions of extreme SE Kansas and
far southwestern Missouri later this afternoon. This moisture
along with strong deep vertical shear and an approaching cold
front from Kansas will set up a potential for thunderstorm
initiation for this evening.

Previous forecasts had highlighted the potential for scattered
thunderstorm development beginning by mid-afternoon. However,
lingering low level cloud cover throughout much of the day has
limited diurnal heating area-wide, with current highs only in the
mid 50s, though low to mid 60s are being observed over SE Kansas
and far southwest Missouri. Additionally, CAM model soundings are
holding onto a subtle capping inversion near 800 mb that doesn't
look likely to erode until after sunset (around 6 PM). Some hi-
resolution models do not have the cap eroding until possibly as
late at 7-8pm depending on when the cold front interacts with a
narrow instability plume over southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri.

Some brief supercell storm modes may develop ahead of the cold
front over southwest Missouri and persist for a few hours during
the first half of the evening (6-9pm) as the 850 mb low level jet
strengthens to around 55-60 knots ahead of the approaching cold
front and upper level trough. A more linear mode of convection
should also develop along the surface cold front across southeast
Kansas and western Missouri around this time and quickly race
southeastwards through the late evening prior to exiting the
eastern CWA by around midnight.

While all modes of severe weather will be possible, the primary
threat will be from damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. A lower end
threat for a few brief tornadoes will primarily be tied to any
supercells and enhanced bowing segments in the line of storms
during the first half of the evening, with potential diminishing
with eastward extent as storms outrun the better instability
present across southwest Missouri. A marginal threat for large
hail to the size of quarters cannot be ruled out, as well.

Severe thunderstorm risk quickly subsides behind the front late
this evening and tonight with skies quickly clearing as a drier
air mass gets ushered into the region for Sunday. Winds will
remain gusty out of the west behind the front tonight with low
temperatures tonight in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Gusty winds remain in the region on Sunday with surface high
pressure to our south and departing low pressure off well to our
northeast with a strong pressure gradient in between. Westerly
wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible during the mid morning
and afternoon, combining with afternoon relative humidities as low
as 20-35 percent to produce widespread elevated fire weather
concerns. Confidence is low regarding Red Flag Warning issuance
due to recent rainfall and ample moisture in larger fuels.
Outdoor burning is still discouraged given the gusty winds and dry
air.

Elevated fire weather conditions on a more scattered basis will
also be possible on Monday with dry air and wind gusts upwards of
20-25 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures will be about
5-10 degrees warmer than Sunday, reaching the low to mid 60s over
the majority of the area.

The weather pattern remains dry and quiet throughout all of next
week as an upper level ridge slides into the central CONUS by mid
week. Some breezier southerly winds will return on Wednesday and
Thursday, bringing warmer high temperatures near 70 degrees for
the second half of the week.

Global models hint at our next chance for precipitation in the
extended period returning later next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will move through in 1 to
2 rounds this evening. Expect amendments as timing/strength
becomes more clear. Expect a wind switch behind a cold front that
is triggering the thunderstorms, with improving conditions behind
the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-
     088-089.

KS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
234 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-152045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
234 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Some scattered strong to severe storms will be possible
 beginning after dark and continuing through the late evening
 with the approach of a strong cold front. Damaging wind gusts in
 excess of 60 mph will be the main severe weather risk. A few
 brief tornadoes will also be possible, along with hail to the
 size of quarters. Thunderstorms will end from west to east
 across the area by midnight.

 Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 30 to 45 mph will
 be possible into the early evening ahead of the approaching cold
 front. The highest winds will remain across extreme southeast
 Kansas and western Missouri where a Wind Advisory has been
 issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

 Fire weather conditions will be elevated on Sunday with a much
 drier air mass moving into the area late tonight behind the
 front. Winds will remain gusty on Sunday with some gusts of 30
 to 35 mph possible.

 Some elevated fire weather conditions will also be possible on
 Monday afternoon with some wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph and low
 relative humidities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for much
 of the area as all modes of severe storms will be possible.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Rothstein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
509 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

KSZ101-MOZ077-088-150000-
Cherokee KS-Barton MO-Jasper MO-
509 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...SOUTH
CENTRAL BARTON AND WESTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

At 508 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Treece, or near Baxter Springs, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Joplin...                Carthage...
Webb City...                      Carl Junction...
Baxter Springs...                 Galena...
Oronogo...                        Carterville...
Jasper...                         Airport Drive...
Lowell...                         Alba...
Purcell...                        Nashville...
Carytown...                       Asbury...
Neck City...                      Treece...
Brooklyn Heights...               Waco...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 44 and 54.

LAT...LON 3745 9441 3725 9422 3706 9460 3706 9461
      3705 9462 3699 9472 3700 9491 3706 9497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 238DEG 43KT 3704 9480

Albano