Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
639 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Tropical storm conditions continue over TAF sites
with winds expected to gradually subside overnight from east to
west as Tropical Storm Cristobal gradually lifts north over
Louisiana. TAF sites are expected to remain primarily in the MVFR
category except in the heavier bands of rainfall where conditions
will deteriorate into IFR to even LIFR tonight. Conditions are
expected to slowly improve tomorrow with flying conditions by
late Monday morning through afternoon being generally a mix of
MVFR and VFR with scattered to numerous showers and southerly
winds of 10 to 15 knots gusting to 25 knots. /08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Tropical Storm Cristobal
expected to start taking a more north to northwestward track and
move from the Southeast Louisiana coast and propagate slowly
northwestward this evening. This will maintain high rain chances
through Monday as bands of rain move over the area and expand
inland. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected primarily over
portions of SE Mississippi and SW Alabama.

Below is a summary of the impacts associated with Cristobal across
our area through Monday:

- A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for extreme southeast
  MS, extreme southwest AL and the northwest FL coast, where
  tropical storm force winds and/or gusts have occurred this
  afternoon and are expected to continue to continue tonight
  especially with the stronger rainbands.

- Dangerous surf heights with 9-12 foot breakers will continue
  through 7 pm CDT Monday, while a HIGH risk of deadly rip
  currents continues along area beaches through Tuesday night.
  Coastal flooding of 1-3 feet above ground level can be expected
  along low lying areas along the coast, bays, and sounds during
  periods of high tide during the late morning/early afternoon
  hours today and Monday.

- Heavy rainfall will be likely and flooding is possible through
  Monday morning, especially across southeast MS, and extreme
  southwest AL, where 4-8 inches of rain with isolated totals
  around 12 inches possible. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches with
  locally higher totals are possible across northwest FL. A Flash
  Flood Watch remains in effect across southeast MS, southwestern
  AL, and the northwest FL panhandle.

- A wind advisory has been issued for some inland counties of SW AL
  and NW FL panhandle until Monday morning. across the Gulf
  towards the coast of Louisiana. A strong southeasterly to
  southerly flow is expected tonight as Cristobal moves into
  Louisiana.

- There continues a threat for a few tornadoes mainly this
  afternoon and tonight across southeast MS, portions of southwest
  AL, and the northwest FL panhandle. Tornado watch 266 remains in
  effect for the Alabama counties of Mobile and Baldwin as well as
  George and Stone counties in Mississippi into this afternoon./08

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Cristobal is
expected to be well inland, over the Arkansas/Missouri area,
Monday evening and become absorbed into an upper trof advancing
eastward across the Plains. Drier air will begin slowly filtering
into the area in its wake so rainfall intensity/totals should
decrease although PoPs will remain relatively high as the region's
weather will be influenced by an upper level trough and afternoon
instability on Tuesday and a cold front pushing through the area
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

A moderate southerly fetch and large swells will keep a high risk
of rip currents going through Wednesday morning. Conditions are
expected to warrant a high surf warning and coastal flood advisory
through 7 pm CDT Monday. Lows Monday night through Wednesday
night will generally range from the lower 70s inland to the mid
70s near the coast. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will range from
the mid to upper 80s. /08

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...An upper ridge builds
over the region Thursday providing a dry northerly flow and quiet
weather into the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will climb into
the upper 80s to low 90s. While overnight lows will range from the low
to mid 60s inland to upper 60s to mid 70s near and along the
coast. /08

MARINE...Tropical storm force winds and building seas will
continue this evening as Tropical Storm Cristobal advances
northwestward across Louisiana. The strong onshore flow then
gradually subsides through Tuesday as Cristobal moves well inland
and weakens. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the
latest advisory on Cristobal. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ALZ051>053-
     261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for ALZ051>053-059-262.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ261-263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for ALZ265-266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ263>266.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for FLZ201-203-205.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Monday for GMZ636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     STORM SURGE      PENSACOLA               30.43N 87.19W
06/07/2020                   ESCAMBIA           FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REPORTED ON BAYOU
            TEXAR AND BAYOU GRANDE BEHIND NAS PENSACOLA.
            PEAK WATER LEVEL AT THE PENSACOLA TIDAL
            GAUGE WAS 2.58 FT MHHW AT 1 PM.

0618 PM     STORM SURGE      3 SSW ALABAMA PORT      30.32N 88.14W
06/07/2020                   MOBILE             AL   PUBLIC

            THE CAUSEWAY ON HWY 193 NORTH OF THE DAUPHIN
            ISLAND BRIDGE IS FLOODED AND CLOSED. PEAK
            WATER VALUE AT THE DAUPHIN ISLAND TIDAL
            GAUGE WAS 2.78 FT MHHW AT 242 PM.

0400 PM     STORM SURGE      2 NE HOLLINGERS ISLAND  30.57N 88.09W
06/07/2020                   MOBILE             AL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            FLOODING AT THE FOOT OF THE DOG RIVER BRIDGE
            ON DAUPHIN ISLAND PARKWAY. PEAK WATER LEVEL
            AT THE DOG RIVER BRIDGE TIDAL GAUGE WAS 2.88
            FT MHHW AT 4PM.

1254 PM     STORM SURGE      MON LOUIS               30.45N 88.11W
06/07/2020                   MOBILE             AL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            FLOODING ALONG THE FOWL RIVER INCLUDING
            FLOODING AT PELICAN REEF MARINA AND GATES OF
            FOWL RIVER MARINA. MAXIMUM READING AT THE
            EAST FOWL RIVER TIDAL GAUGE WAS 3.1 FT MHHW
            AT 1254PM.

0556 PM     STORM SURGE      2 E PINTO ISLAND        30.68N 87.99W
06/07/2020                   BALDWIN            AL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            EASTBOUND LANES OF THE US HWY 90 CAUSEWAY
            ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. WATER ALSO ON
            PARTS OF THE WESTBOUND LANES. PEAK WATER
            LEVEL AT THE COAST GUARD SECTOR MOBILE TIDAL
            GAUGE WAS 3.15 FT MHHW.

&&