Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
422 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...Tropical Depression
Cristobal will continue to weaken and move northward into Arkansas
by this evening. This will maintain a continued heavy rain threat
as a deep tropical airmass with precipitable water values well
over 2 inches remains over the area. While the heaviest rainfall
will shift north and west of the area by this afternoon, locally
heavy rainfall will remain possible in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through this afternoon. In addition, there
is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms with isolated tornadoes
over northwest portions of the area where vertical wind profiles
will remain supportive of a few supercells this afternoon where
the boundary layer is able to destabilize between convective rain
bands. Winds will gradually decrease through the day but remain
gusty out of the south and a Wind Advisory continues today. The
strong southerly flow will maintain coastal flooding particularly
in areas around Mobile Bay where a Coastal Flood Warning is in
effect with a Coastal Flood Advisory east of there into the
western Florida panhandle. Dangerous surf and a high risk of rip
currents will also continue at the coast through today.

Cristobal is expected to be well inland, over the Arkansas/Missouri
area, this evening and become absorbed into an upper trof
advancing eastward across the Plains. Drier air will begin slowly
filtering into the area in its wake so rainfall intensity/totals
should decrease although PoPs will remain relatively high as the
region's weather will be influenced by an upper level trough
approaching the area and afternoon instability on Tuesday. A
moderate southerly fetch and large swells will keep a high risk of
rip currents going on Tuesday.

High today will be in the low to mid 80s with mid and upper 80s
on Tuesday. Lows will be in the low 70s inland to mid and upper 70s
along the coast. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Wednesday night/...An upper
trough and associated cold front will approach the area Tuesday and
moves across the area on Wednesday. Plenty of deep layer moisture
will continue ahead of the front and when combined with daytime
heating will lead to the development of scattered to locally
numerous showers and thunderstorms. An isolated strong to severe
storm is possible ahead of the front on Wednesday and SPC has
outlined the area in a Marginal Risk. A much drier airmass moves
into the area Wednesday night in the wake of the front.

A High Risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday. /13

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...An upper level ridge
begins building over the region Thursday in the wake of a frontal
boundary that is expected to have moved through the region at the
end of the short term or very beginning of the extended period.
After a few lingering showers and storms over the eastern part of
the forecast area on Thursday, the building ridge will provide a dry
northerly flow and a quiet, rain free weather pattern through the
weekend and into the early part of next week. Afternoon temperatures
will climb from the upper 80s across the entire area on Thursday to
the upper 80s and lower 90s across the entire area Friday through
Monday as the ridge builds. Overnight lows will range from the low
to mid 60s inland to the lower 70s near and along the coast. /12

&&

.MARINE...Strong southerly flow will gradually subside through
Tuesday as the remains of Cristobal moves well inland and
weakens. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the
latest advisory on Cristobal. A light to moderate onshore flow
prevails Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold front moves southward
across the Gulf Wednesday night with a moderate offshore flow
following in its wake. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ALZ051>053-261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>053-261-
     262.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for ALZ265-266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-
     266.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263-264.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

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