Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
337 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Latest surface analysis places a 993mb low pressure system over
southwestern Iowa, with a warm front extending eastward through
north central Illinois, and a cold front extending southward
through western Missouri and into Little Rock, Arkansas. Storms
have begun to fire just ahead ahead of the cold front in Central
and eastern Arkansas. So far, storms have remained mainly sub-
severe, as shear is likely overwhelming the thermodynamic
environment. However, the storms are moving into our area, which
is moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE available on
tap.

A tornado watch has been issued for the majority of Arkansas,
including all of eastern Arkansas until 7PM. The main risk with
these storms appears to be damaging winds and large hail attm,
with a low end tornado threat, as low level helicity is currently
below 100 m2/s2. However, the risk for QLCS-type tornadoes will
likely increase this evening, as the low level jet picks up and
storms organize into quasi linear segments. Ample instability in
the 1500-2500 MLCAPE range combined with 0-6 km shear of 80kts,
and a coincident 100 kt 500mb jet streak, should be enough for a
strong line of storms to maintain through late this evening. The
primary risk still appears to be damaging winds with a secondary
threat of large hail and short-lived isolated tornadoes. The
threat will end after midnight as the front exits northeast
Mississippi. A few trailing post-frontal showers are possible
overnight as the main trough lifts out of the area.

Pacific high pressure will build into the Mid-South for Sunday,
leading to dry and pleasant conditions. Expect high temperatures
mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will quickly
slide by Monday as another system develops to our southwest. A
quick moving shortwave will eject across the Desert Southwest on
Monday and make its way into the Texas Panhandle late Monday
night. A surface low is expected to develop and track eastward
through northern Louisiana and Central Mississippi during the day
on Tuesday. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
across our area on Monday night and Tuesday. Due to the track of
the low, the severe threat will stay to our south and mainly along
the Gulf Coast. The system will likely be a heavy rainfall
producer for us and that's about it. The surface low is expected
to push southeast of the area by late Tuesday night, with Canadian
high pressure building into the Mid-South from the northwest.
This will lead to a few consecutive days of dry and near normal
temperatures. The next weather maker looks to arrive this weekend
as a cold front moves across the Mississippi Valley.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR CIGs are expected to prevail for most of the day today along
with strengthening southerly winds and gusts up to 25 kts. A line
of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move quickly across
the Mid-South late evening. Showers should move into JBR by 22Z
then progress eastward through the night. Temporary IFR conditions
due to heave rain is likely in association with thunderstorms
along with gusty winds with thunderstorms. Winds will diminish
overnight to less than 10kt, shifting southwest to west. Skies
will likely clear by early morning and persist through Sunday.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
220 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-292130-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
220 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A tornado watch is in effect until 7PM CDT for all of eastern
Arkansas. Additional convective watches are possible downstream
later tonight.

Severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are possible beginning early this
evening through approximately midnight for the entire Mid-South.
The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will exist mainly
along and north of the I-40 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

AC3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SE CHERRY VALLEY        35.40N  90.75W
03/28/2020                   CROSS              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE FUNNEL SPOTTED OVER BIRD EYE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
533 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JONESBORO               35.82N  90.69W
03/28/2020                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TRAIN DERAILMENT WITH POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS
            MATERIAL SPILL. GAS LEAKS SCATTERED ACROSS TOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TORNADO          CALDWELL                35.08N  90.82W
03/28/2020                   ST. FRANCIS        AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TORNADO ON GROUND IN GREENE COUNTY APPROX 6 MILES NW OF
            CALDWELL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
551 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JONESBORO               35.82N  90.69W
03/28/2020                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AT A SHOPPING MALL AND OTHER
            BUILDINGS. POSSIBLE INJURIES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
554 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TORNADO          CARDWELL                36.05N  90.29W
03/28/2020                   DUNKLIN            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TORNADO ON GROUND IN GREENE COUNTY APPROX 6 MILES NW OF
            CARDWELL MO.

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION...REMARKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JONESBORO               35.82N  90.69W
03/28/2020                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL HANGARS AND PLANES DAMAGED AT JONESBORO
            MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. SEVERE DAMAGE IN DOWNTOWN JONESBORO.
            CARS FLIPPED AND BUILDINGS DAMAGED. POSSIBLE INJURIES.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS