Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
406 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Ongoing severe weather, so discussion is brief. Cold frontal
system now moving across northwest MN and southeastern ND with
stronger deep layer shear across northwest MN and deeper
instabilities in far southeast ND into west central MN. System is
progressive and expected to exit the FA through 7pm CDT. Expect
northwesterly winds behind the front with a steadily clearing and
drying airmass settling over the area tonight through Monday.

Overnight lows should settle into the 50s, with Monday daytime
highs reaching into the middle to upper 70s, under fair skies and
gusty westerly blayer winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Zonal flow sets up early in the workweek with a shortwave ridge
moving across Sask Monday night, keeping the first half of the work
week dry with afternoon highs in the 80s.  Humidity values will be
the driest on Tuesday before weak return flow sets up going into
Wednesday.  An upper level pattern shift will help SW flow aloft set
up going into the latter part of the week as an upper low begins to
wobble over nrn Alberta, bringing a more unsettled pattern to the
area Wed-Sat.  While afternoon highs generally stay in the 80s for
the latter half of the week into the weekend, dewpoints will rise
into the upper 60s to low 70s, bringing a return of humid weather to
the region as PWAT values climb to around 1.25 to 1.50 inches by
week's end.  Can expect isolated to scattered storms through the
Wed-Sat period. Sunday should see drying and clearing conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue along a
cold frontal boundary extending from the Lake of the Woods down
through the Fargo-Moorhead area to near Aberdeen. This system
should track eastward out the FA through early evening eastern
with KBJI and KFAR still seeing some impacts. Else, expect VFR
conditions west of the frontal boundary, through early evening,
then widespread VFR conditions overnight into MOnday... with winds
turning from the west-northwest.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 until 7pm CDT.
MN...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 until 7pm CDT.

SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...JR/Gust
AVIATION...Gust

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
426 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-100930-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
426 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible today. The first
round will impact during the early morning hours mainly south of
the I-29/Highway 10 corridor. Hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts to
60 mph will be possible. These storms will move eastward out of
the area by mid-day.

Additional thunderstorms will move in from western North Dakota
during the late morning and into the afternoon as a cold front
moves into the region. Depending on how the morning activity plays
out, there is the possibility of hail up to 1 inch, wind gusts to
75 mph, and even a brief tornado spin up as a complex of
thunderstorms moves across the area during the afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorm chances will be possible during the middle
to later part of the work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
242 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.09N 96.19W
08/09/2020  M77 MPH          Pennington         MN   AWOS

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AIRPORT
            /KTVF/.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
248 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 S ROSEAU             48.69N 95.76W
08/09/2020  M66 MPH          Roseau             MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT AN NDAWN STATION AT 3 METER HEIGHT.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NW BLANCHARD          47.39N 97.28W
08/09/2020                   Traill             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO FUNNELS VIEWED FROM TWO STORMS NORTHWEST OF
            BLANCHARD. BOTH WERE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF THE WAY DOWN.
            ORIGINAL REPORT VIA 911 CALL CENTER. PHOTO POSTED TO
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 WNW HALSTAD           47.38N 96.94W
08/09/2020                   Traill             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUDS WITH SMALL FUNNEL LOWERING. VIEWED
            TO NORTH FROM HIGHWAY 200. PHOTO AND REPORT POSTED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
347 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NNE MAVIE             48.27N 95.90W
08/09/2020  M59 MPH          Marshall           MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE AGASSIZ RAWS STATION.

&&

GGUST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
424 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

NDZ052-092200-
Sargent ND-
424 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SARGENT COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cogswell, or 59 miles west of Wahpeton, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cogswell around 430 PM CDT.
  Brampton around 435 PM CDT.
  Forman around 455 PM CDT.
  Rutland and Havana around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4595 9801 4616 9801 4617 9800 4620 9800
      4618 9744 4595 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 274DEG 14KT 4606 9782

DJR