Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Grand Forks, ND

581 
WWUS53 KFGF 092044
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
344 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNC007-077-089-135-092054-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-200809T2045Z/
Marshall MN-Roseau MN-Beltrami MN-Lake of the Woods MN-
344 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...
EASTERN ROSEAU...NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI AND SOUTHWESTERN LAKE OF THE
WOODS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4854 9504 4847 9608 4900 9551 4900 9516
      4904 9515 4903 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 268DEG 25KT 4900 9486 4850 9532 

$$

TG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
101 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 7 pm CDT, for
most of eastern ND, east of a Devils Lake-Langdon line, and into
Northwest and west central MN. Else, no other significant updates
needed to the forecast package.

UPDATE Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

With increased cloud cover and precip expected across the
northern half of the CWA through the late forenoon and early
afternoon, have lowered forecast high temps there just a bit. Have
also increased overall POP values along the late afternoon and
evening frontal band in keeping with updated guidance.

UPDATE Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Adjusted POPs for storms across our southern counties as well as
more storms coming in from the west. CAMs continue to struggle
with the western activity and want to fizzle convection out until
the true front comes in later today. Given how poorly they have
done not sure that will be the case. Lowered highs a bit in some
areas with increased cloud cover from this morning, may have to
come down a bit more but will keep an eye on things.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Convective timing and strength continue to be the main concerns
for the period.

Active pattern with southwesterly flow aloft continues across the
Northern Plains, with one shortwave currently rotating through SD,
while the main upper trough is still over Alberta and
Saskatchewan. The southern shortwave will lift into MN later this
morning, and CAMs have quite a bit of showers and thunderstorms
entering our southern counties. With MU CAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range, some severe is possible even with effective
bulk shear 25 kts at best. Most likely multicell storms with a few
cells pulsing up to severe. The southern thunderstorms will move
eastward out of our area by late morning.

The main upper trough will stay well to our north, but should push
a cold front into our northwestern counties by this afternoon.
Very much will depend on what happens with morning convection, and
CAMs are not catching onto some cells breaking out over western ND
currently, so trust in their solutions is not high. Do think there
will be at least some destabilization early Sunday afternoon as
temps climb into the 80s and dew points in the 70s have already
entered our southern counties. Some thunderstorm development along
the cold front will be possible, and with high CAPE values ahead
of the boundary and decent shear along it, strong to severe storms
will be possible. Most likely in some sort of line extending
across the CWA through the afternoon, with the front pushing it
out of our area by evening.

Clearing skies and drier air moving in behind the front will help
temps tonight drop into the low to mid 50s. Monday will be very
quiet with high pressure over most of the plains, and temps
slightly cooler than average in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Zonal flow sets up early in the workweek with a shortwave ridge
moving across Sask Monday night, keeping the first half of the work
week dry with afternoon highs in the 80s.  Humidity values will be
the driest on Tuesday before weak return flow sets up going into
Wednesday.  An upper level pattern shift will help SW flow aloft set
up going into the latter part of the week as an upper low begins to
wobble over nrn Alberta, bringing a more unsettled pattern to the
area Wed-Sat.  While afternoon highs generally stay in the 80s for
the latter half of the week into the weekend, dewpoints will rise
into the upper 60s to low 70s, bringing a return of humid weather to
the region as PWAT values climb to around 1.25 to 1.50 inches by
week's end.  Can expect isolated to scattered storms through the
Wed-Sun period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to fire along a cold
frontal boundary extending from northeastern ND through south-
central through the afternoon... and then track steadily eastward
across eastern ND into northwest and west central MN through the
late afternoon and early evening. Expect generally VFR conditions
outside of thunderstorms this afternoon. Light southerly winds
will turn from the northwest after cold frontal passage this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 until 7 pm CDT.
MN...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 until 7 pm CDT.

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Gust

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
426 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-100930-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
426 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible today. The first
round will impact during the early morning hours mainly south of
the I-29/Highway 10 corridor. Hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts to
60 mph will be possible. These storms will move eastward out of
the area by mid-day.

Additional thunderstorms will move in from western North Dakota
during the late morning and into the afternoon as a cold front
moves into the region. Depending on how the morning activity plays
out, there is the possibility of hail up to 1 inch, wind gusts to
75 mph, and even a brief tornado spin up as a complex of
thunderstorms moves across the area during the afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorm chances will be possible during the middle
to later part of the work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
209 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WNW GRAND FORKS       47.94N 97.17W
08/09/2020  M64 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   ASOS

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT /KGFK/.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
214 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 SW ORISKA             46.88N 97.86W
08/09/2020                   Barnes             ND   911 CALL CENTER

            FUNNEL VIEWED FROM INTERSTATE 94.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
218 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     TORNADO          12 W THIEF RIVER FALLS  48.11N 96.44W
08/09/2020                   Pennington         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AS VIEWED FROM HIGHWAY
            1, WEST OF THIEF RIVER FALLS.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
224 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     TORNADO          6 SSW ORISKA            46.85N 97.84W
08/09/2020                   Barnes             ND   STORM CHASER

            REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
242 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.09N 96.19W
08/09/2020  M77 MPH          Pennington         MN   AWOS

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AIRPORT
            /KTVF/.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
248 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 S ROSEAU             48.69N 95.76W
08/09/2020  M66 MPH          Roseau             MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT AN NDAWN STATION AT 3 METER HEIGHT.

&&

GGUST