Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
312 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Convective timing and strength continue to be the main concerns
for the period.

Active pattern with southwesterly flow aloft continues across the
Northern Plains, with one shortwave currently rotating through SD,
while the main upper trough is still over Alberta and
Saskatchewan. The southern shortwave will lift into MN later this
morning, and CAMs have quite a bit of showers and thunderstorms
entering our southern counties. With MU CAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range, some severe is possible even with effective
bulk shear 25 kts at best. Most likely multicell storms with a few
cells pulsing up to severe. The southern thunderstorms will move
eastward out of our area by late morning.

The main upper trough will stay well to our north, but should push
a cold front into our northwestern counties by this afternoon.
Very much will depend on what happens with morning convection, and
CAMs are not catching onto some cells breaking out over western ND
currently, so trust in their solutions is not high. Do think there
will be at least some destabilization early Sunday afternoon as
temps climb into the 80s and dew points in the 70s have already
entered our southern counties. Some thunderstorm development along
the cold front will be possible, and with high CAPE values ahead
of the boundary and decent shear along it, strong to severe storms
will be possible. Most likely in some sort of line extending
across the CWA through the afternoon, with the front pushing it
out of our area by evening.

Clearing skies and drier air moving in behind the front will help
temps tonight drop into the low to mid 50s. Monday will be very
quiet with high pressure over most of the plains, and temps
slightly cooler than average in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Zonal flow sets up early in the workweek with a shortwave ridge
moving across Sask Monday night, keeping the first half of the work
week dry with afternoon highs in the 80s.  Humidity values will be
the driest on Tuesday before weak return flow sets up going into
Wednesday.  An upper level pattern shift will help SW flow aloft set
up going into the latter part of the week as an upper low begins to
wobble over nrn Alberta, bringing a more unsettled pattern to the
area Wed-Sat.  While afternoon highs generally stay in the 80s for
the latter half of the week into the weekend, dewpoints will rise
into the upper 60s to low 70s, bringing a return of humid weather to
the region as PWAT values climb to around 1.25 to 1.50 inches by
week's end.  Can expect isolated to scattered storms through the
Wed-Sun period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Clear skies and calm winds have supported patchy fog development
in north central MN and vis restrictions will be possible at
times at KBJI early in the TAF period (generally MVFR though IFR
can't be ruled out). Showers/thunderstorms are still possible
across southeast ND and northwest MN after 09Z through around 12Z
and impacts at KFAR and KBJI will be possible with this first
round. After this moves east there is still uncertainty in how the
next few rounds of thunderstorms will evolve ahead of a cold
front that will move through eastern ND and northwest MN by 00Z. I
kept mention out again with the daytime Sunday period due to this
uncertainty. Expect winds to increase to the 10-12kt range ahead
of the frontal zone with gusts 20-25kt (shifting from the south to
northwest behind this front).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
426 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-100930-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
426 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible today. The first
round will impact during the early morning hours mainly south of
the I-29/Highway 10 corridor. Hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts to
60 mph will be possible. These storms will move eastward out of
the area by mid-day.

Additional thunderstorms will move in from western North Dakota
during the late morning and into the afternoon as a cold front
moves into the region. Depending on how the morning activity plays
out, there is the possibility of hail up to 1 inch, wind gusts to
75 mph, and even a brief tornado spin up as a complex of
thunderstorms moves across the area during the afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional thunderstorm chances will be possible during the middle
to later part of the work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
429 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

NDZ049-052-053-091030-
Sargent ND-Richland ND-Ransom ND-
429 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RANSOM...
SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND AND EASTERN SARGENT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM
CDT...

At 429 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Geneseo, or 38 miles southwest of Wahpeton, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cayuga around 435 AM CDT.
  Geneseo around 440 AM CDT.
  Lidgerwood around 445 AM CDT.
  Hamlin around 450 AM CDT.
  Wyndmere around 510 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9755 4643 9733 4634 9683 4593 9721
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 205DEG 26KT 4601 9732

SPEICHER