Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1248 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

500 mb short wave moving thru the Red River valley attm with
continued convection over SE ND and thru the RRV into NW MN.
Overall intensities are lower but still some wind threats. As this
short wave moves through by 12z the activity will greatly
diminish. The tornado watch was replaced by a severe t-storm watch
valid to 2 am / 07z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

For this evening...see the mesoscale discussion above. Mesoscale
discussion does not address excessive rainfall threat, but it is
something to keep in mind.  Storms will develop and move
across the same area this evening. Given very high PWATS ~1.6
inches precipitation rates will be efficient. HREF indicates areas
along the boundary will likely receive at least 2 inches of rain,
with the potential for up to 7-10 inches in localized areas.
Although we've been dry the past few weeks, this would still
likely lead to impacts.

For Monday...main concern will be severe potential east of the
valley where warm sector remains. Favorable environment will be in
place given moderate instability and strong deep layer shear. Most
guidance at least suggests scattered storms during the evening
hours, with main ingredient lacking being strong forcing.

Monday night into Tuesday night...still some uncertainty, but
guidance is trending wetter for the eastern half of our forecast
area. Mid-level baroclinic zone with strong Fgen will lead to
periods of showers, with main question exactly how far west will
showers occur. This is hinges on the track of the tropical
depression. Will need to monitor as preceding rainfall events with
an additional 1-4 inches of rain would lead to some flooding
impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

West to northwest flow prevails on Wednesday, with H5 ridging to the
west and troughing to the east. An upper low, situated off the coast
of the Pacific Northwest, will work slowly eastward through the end
of the week, with ridging sliding eastward ahead of it. Synoptic
patterns within ensemble guidance suggest a continued active pattern
for Wednesday and Thursday, with quiet and drier weather likely
Friday and into the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday: Rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday, mainly for northwestern and
west-central MN. A slow-moving upper trough will move southeastward
along the flow pattern, prolonging our rain chances for the eastern
most counties within the CWA into Thursday. Instability looks low,
thus widespread severe weather is not supported at this time. High
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be a bit cooler, in the
mid-60s to mid-70s.

Friday through Sunday: Warmer but primarily dry weather is expected
as temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s with low humidity.
H5 ridging prevails during this time frame with subsidence
contributing to the diminished rain and thunderstorm chances. PW is
expected to be less than normal during this time frame as well.
Impacts during the Friday through Sunday time frame could include an
increased fire weather concern, but overall should remain relatively
quiet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Cloud wise, mostly VFR thru 14z Mon. Some pockets of MVFR cigs may
form due to rainfall. Near storms brief IFR or MVFR with rain and
thunder but most of that is now between Fargo and Bemidji thru
09z. Balance of the day Monday will see south winds pick up once
again in the RRV and MN with scattered clouds, which will lead to
a thunderstorm chance in the evening for parts of the MN fcst
area.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081430-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the region.
A couple tornadoes are possible, including the possibility for a
strong and especially dangerous tornado. In addition, any storm has
the potential to produce very large and destructive hail greater
than 2 inches, and destructive wind gusts greater than 75 mph.
Storms will initially be scattered, eventually evolving into
clusters of storms. The threat will remain isolated and then
increase in coverage after 6pm. Excessive rainfall is also possible
if storms move across the same location multiple times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe storms will again be possible Monday within
Minnesota with hail up to an inch and winds around 60mph. General
thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday, with excessive
rainfall possibly leading to flash flooding Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1228 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 NE GARDNER            47.22N 96.86W
06/08/2020  M58.00 MPH       Cass               ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 E PERLEY              47.18N 96.67W
06/08/2020  M65.00 MPH       Norman             MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT AN NDAWN STATION.

&&

GGUST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1237 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

MNZ001>003-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-080615-
Red Lake MN-North Beltrami MN-East Becker MN-Pennington MN-
South Clearwater MN-Hubbard MN-North Clearwater MN-West Becker MN-
Clay MN-Mahnomen MN-West Polk MN-Norman MN-East Polk MN-
South Beltrami MN-
1237 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN RED LAKE...EASTERN
CLAY...NORTHWESTERN HUBBARD...NORMAN...SOUTHEASTERN POLK...
SOUTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...MAHNOMEN...NORTHERN BECKER...EASTERN
PENNINGTON AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1237 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Beltrami to near Waukon to near Muskoda.
Movement was northeast at 80 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hawley, Fosston, Bagley, Mahnomen, Fertile, Twin Valley and Lake
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4714 9513 4670 9660 4724 9646 4754 9670
      4817 9563 4817 9559 4822 9555 4793 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 232DEG 68KT 4754 9655 4733 9616 4682 9637

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 AM     TSTM WND GST     PROSPER                 46.96N 97.02W
06/08/2020  M79 MPH          CASS               ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED BY A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GGUST

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