Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
742 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 741 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Significant instability remains over eastern North Dakota and
extends into parts of northwest Minnesota with values of ML CAPE
ranging between 1500 and 3500 J/Kg. This instability combined with
deep layer shear of 40 to 60 knots this environment remains
capable of supporting supercells.

The outflow boundary that was previously located in the Red River
Valley has dissipated which will decrease the tornado threat
somewhat. Low level SRH remains maximized in far northwest
Minnesota where some wall clouds were reported earlier and in
southeast North Dakota near the South Dakota border where a
tornado was confirmed. There will remain a window while the over
the next hour to two where tornadoes remain possible. The threat
for significant tornadoes has decreased across eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota. With the unstable environment and
deep layer shear large hail, high winds, a tornado or two remain
possible this evening. Later tonight storms are expected to grow
upscale into more of a linear storm mode. At this point the
primary severe risk will transition to wind.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Warm front has remained this evening from the Cavalier ND area to
near Thief River Falls then toward Park Rapids. Storms when
reaching this warm front encountering better dynamics to become
severe. SigTor remains higher along the Manitoba border near the
front, but trends will indicate that the TOR threat will start to
diminish by 02z. Watching the 500 mb wave moving NNE thru central
SD and into south central ND with better upper level forcing with
it. General band of t-storms with this feature and numerous severe
storms along it from south of Jamestown to near Pierre SD. TOR
reported near Ashley ND as area around there did see uptick in
SigTor parameters. General thoughts are that as the wave lifts
NNE will see increased t-storm action into E ND and likely form a
line as it does and move NE thru most of the area overnight.
Severe threat will be mainly hail and wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

For this evening...see the mesoscale discussion above. Mesoscale
discussion does not address excessive rainfall threat, but it is
something to keep in mind.  Storms will develop and move
across the same area this evening. Given very high PWATS ~1.6
inches precipitation rates will be efficient. HREF indicates areas
along the boundary will likely receive at least 2 inches of rain,
with the potential for up to 7-10 inches in localized areas.
Although we've been dry the past few weeks, this would still
likely lead to impacts.

For Monday...main concern will be severe potential east of the
valley where warm sector remains. Favorable environment will be in
place given moderate instability and strong deep layer shear. Most
guidance at least suggests scattered storms during the evening
hours, with main ingredient lacking being strong forcing.

Monday night into Tuesday night...still some uncertainty, but
guidance is trending wetter for the eastern half of our forecast
area. Mid-level baroclinic zone with strong Fgen will lead to
periods of showers, with main question exactly how far west will
showers occur. This is hinges on the track of the tropical
depression. Will need to monitor as preceding rainfall events with
an additional 1-4 inches of rain would lead to some flooding
impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

West to northwest flow prevails on Wednesday, with H5 ridging to the
west and troughing to the east. An upper low, situated off the coast
of the Pacific Northwest, will work slowly eastward through the end
of the week, with ridging sliding eastward ahead of it. Synoptic
patterns within ensemble guidance suggest a continued active pattern
for Wednesday and Thursday, with quiet and drier weather likely
Friday and into the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday: Rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday, mainly for northwestern and
west-central MN. A slow-moving upper trough will move southeastward
along the flow pattern, prolonging our rain chances for the eastern
most counties within the CWA into Thursday. Instability looks low,
thus widespread severe weather is not supported at this time. High
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be a bit cooler, in the
mid-60s to mid-70s.

Friday through Sunday: Warmer but primarily dry weather is expected
as temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s with low humidity.
H5 ridging prevails during this time frame with subsidence
contributing to the diminished rain and thunderstorm chances. PW is
expected to be less than normal during this time frame as well.
Impacts during the Friday through Sunday time frame could include an
increased fire weather concern, but overall should remain relatively
quiet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

VFR conditions at the TAF sites, except when thunderstorms are
nearby when brief IFR/MVFR conditions will occur. T-storm threat
at most sites continues past 06z then diminishes by 12z. Main
t-storm threat Monday late aftn/eve will be in MN, affecting
Bemidji.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

MESOSCALE...NC
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081430-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the region.
A couple tornadoes are possible, including the possibility for a
strong and especially dangerous tornado. In addition, any storm has
the potential to produce very large and destructive hail greater
than 2 inches, and destructive wind gusts greater than 75 mph.
Storms will initially be scattered, eventually evolving into
clusters of storms. The threat will remain isolated and then
increase in coverage after 6pm. Excessive rainfall is also possible
if storms move across the same location multiple times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe storms will again be possible Monday within
Minnesota with hail up to an inch and winds around 60mph. General
thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday, with excessive
rainfall possibly leading to flash flooding Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
913 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             5 E NEW ROCKFORD        47.68N 99.03W
06/07/2020  E1.75 INCH       Eddy               ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
929 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E LOGAN CENTER        47.80N 97.80W
06/07/2020  E68 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED BY THE NDAWN NEAR LOGAN CENTER.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE MAYVILLE           47.55N 97.25W
06/07/2020                   Traill             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT FARMSTEAD. PUBLIC REPORT OF POSSIBLE
            TORNADO.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E LOGAN CENTER        47.80N 97.80W
06/07/2020  E80.00 MPH       Grand Forks        ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED BY THE NDAWN NEAR LOGAN CENTER AT 10
            METERS.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW BRAMPTON          45.98N 97.81W
06/07/2020  M59 MPH          Sargent            ND   MESONET

            PEAK WINDS MEASURED BY AN NDAWN STATION.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W COOPERSTOWN         47.44N 98.19W
06/07/2020  M59 MPH          Griggs             ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED BY AN NDAWN STATION.

&&

GGUST