Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Grand Forks, ND

707 
WWUS53 KFGF 082330
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

MNC119-082340-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-200609T0000Z/
Polk MN-
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4828 9630 4817 9652 4817 9682 4827 9689
      4842 9693 4854 9674 4854 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 226DEG 30KT 4832 9671 

$$

MNC089-090000-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-200609T0000Z/
Marshall MN-
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY...

At 630 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Argyle, or 28
miles northwest of Thief River Falls, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Florian, Radium, Old Mill State Park and
Englund.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4828 9630 4817 9652 4817 9682 4827 9689
      4842 9693 4854 9674 4854 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 226DEG 30KT 4832 9671 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Lynch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
215 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Two areas of concern for severe potential today. The first is
across the northern valley where a warm front is set up and
satellite imagery indicates an area of increased convergence
across northeast North Dakota. Convective initiation is likely by
4pm, if not before. MLCAPE ~2500 J/KG with effective shear ~60
knots will lead to rapid supercell development. Storm mode should
be discrete initially with significant hail, wind, and possibly a
tornado the main threats. Tornado potential appears relatively low
given the weak low level shear and winds south of the boundary
more southwesterly (southeasterly would be more favorable). With
that said, given a supercell in a low LCL environment can't rule
out a tornado. Anticipate storm motion similar to boundary
orientation with a cluster (or clusters) of storms propagating
across far northwest Minnesota and the main threat possibly
transitioning to more of a wind threat. Severe threat across this
area likely ends by 9pm.

Further south within the warm sector (depicted by area of cumulus
clouds across the southern valley into west central Minnesota),
severe threat will be later, and likely dependent on synoptic
forcing spreading into the region from the south. Much like
yesterday, anticipate main threat to be significant wind gusts
given stronger low level flow. This threat increases after 6pm,
and becomes more widespread after 9pm or 10pm as the stronger
forcing arrives. The severe threat across this area decreases
after 2am or 3am.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

See the mesoscale discussion concerning the severe weather
potential this afternoon/evening. Excessive rainfall threat seems
more limited compared to yesterday with less training expected.

Showers with embedded thunder likely for much of the area along
and east of the valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. Mid-level
baroclinic zone will be hung up in this area between the tropical
depression and an approaching upper trough from the northwest.
Continued feed of mid-level moisture and embedded shortwaves will
lead to periods of showers. Instability is relatively weak and
anticipate embedded thunder but not severe storms. Given all the
parameters (PWATs, Fgen, weak instability) thinking that Tuesday-
Tuesday night QPF up to an inch is reasonable, with only some
areas receiving a bit more. Impacts from this type of rainfall
(over a longer duration) should be only minor.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Much of this period appears relatively quiet and cooler with
minimal impacts as an upper ridge builds into the region. Active
weather returns by early next week, although how quickly this
happens is still uncertain and dependent on the strength of the
upper ridging.

Wednesday will be cloudy and cool with showers possible as the
upper trough behind the tropical depression swings through the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Scattered to broken cumulus developing this afternoon should be
mainly VFR, but could be close to MVFR. Thunderstorm chances
increase this afternoon, and become more widespread overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

MESOSCALE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-
049-052>054-091945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
northeast North Dakota by 4pm, and then move east into northwest
Minnesota by late afternoon, exiting by early evening. Very large
hail greater than 2 inches along with a possible tornado will be
the initial threat, with a transition to a damaging wind threat as
the activity moves into Minnesota.

Additional numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota
this evening, mainly after 6pm. Activity will become more
widespread after 9pm. Clusters of storms will bring primarily a
damaging wind threat to this area, continuing until well after
midnight.

Excessive rainfall is possible, especially for areas that have
seen high rain totals over the past couple days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers with embedded Thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday,
mainly within the Red River Valley into Minnesota. Minor impacts
from excessive rainfall may be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters will be needed today into the overnight hours.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-091945-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter spotters will not be needed today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
517 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             ARVILLA                 47.92N 97.49W
06/08/2020  M1.25 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
544 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             1 S GRAFTON             48.40N 97.40W
06/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       Walsh              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
559 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             CARIBOU                 48.98N 96.45W
06/08/2020  E1.25 INCH       KITTSON            MN   PUBLIC

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
601 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     HORACE                  46.76N 96.90W
06/07/2020  E60 MPH          CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
603 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             4 W EMERADO             47.92N 97.45W
06/08/2020  E1.75 INCH       Grand Forks        ND   PUBLIC

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
608 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             5 S ALVARADO            48.12N 97.00W
06/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       Polk               MN   PUBLIC

            ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

GGUST