Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Grand Forks, ND

837 
WWUS53 KFGF 082030
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
330 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

MNC089-NDC099-082040-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200608T2100Z/
Marshall MN-Walsh ND-
330 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND
EASTERN WALSH COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4863 9664 4854 9680 4854 9741 4855 9742
      4891 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 220DEG 36KT 4858 9715 

$$

MNC069-NDC067-082100-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200608T2100Z/
Kittson MN-Pembina ND-
330 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN KITTSON AND SOUTHEASTERN PEMBINA COUNTIES...

At 330 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Robbin, or 16
miles northeast of Grafton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Bowesmont around 335 PM CDT.
  Mattson around 340 PM CDT.
  Kennedy around 345 PM CDT.
  Hallock and Northcote around 355 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include American
Crystal Sugar.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 185 and 199.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4863 9664 4854 9680 4854 9741 4855 9742
      4891 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 220DEG 36KT 4858 9715 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
215 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Two areas of concern for severe potential today. The first is
across the northern valley where a warm front is set up and
satellite imagery indicates an area of increased convergence
across northeast North Dakota. Convective initiation is likely by
4pm, if not before. MLCAPE ~2500 J/KG with effective shear ~60
knots will lead to rapid supercell development. Storm mode should
be discrete initially with significant hail, wind, and possibly a
tornado the main threats. Tornado potential appears relatively low
given the weak low level shear and winds south of the boundary
more southwesterly (southeasterly would be more favorable). With
that said, given a supercell in a low LCL environment can't rule
out a tornado. Anticipate storm motion similar to boundary
orientation with a cluster (or clusters) of storms propagating
across far northwest Minnesota and the main threat possibly
transitioning to more of a wind threat. Severe threat across this
area likely ends by 9pm.

Further south within the warm sector (depicted by area of cumulus
clouds across the southern valley into west central Minnesota),
severe threat will be later, and likely dependent on synoptic
forcing spreading into the region from the south. Much like
yesterday, anticipate main threat to be significant wind gusts
given stronger low level flow. This threat increases after 6pm,
and becomes more widespread after 9pm or 10pm as the stronger
forcing arrives. The severe threat across this area decreases
after 2am or 3am.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

See the mesoscale discussion concerning the severe weather
potential this afternoon/evening. Excessive rainfall threat seems
more limited compared to yesterday with less training expected.

Showers with embedded thunder likely for much of the area along
and east of the valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. Mid-level
baroclinic zone will be hung up in this area between the tropical
depression and an approaching upper trough from the northwest.
Continued feed of mid-level moisture and embedded shortwaves will
lead to periods of showers. Instability is relatively weak and
anticipate embedded thunder but not severe storms. Given all the
parameters (PWATs, Fgen, weak instability) thinking that Tuesday-
Tuesday night QPF up to an inch is reasonable, with only some
areas receiving a bit more. Impacts from this type of rainfall
(over a longer duration) should be only minor.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Much of this period appears relatively quiet and cooler with
minimal impacts as an upper ridge builds into the region. Active
weather returns by early next week, although how quickly this
happens is still uncertain and dependent on the strength of the
upper ridging.

Wednesday will be cloudy and cool with showers possible as the
upper trough behind the tropical depression swings through the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Scattered to broken cumulus developing this afternoon should be
mainly VFR, but could be close to MVFR. Thunderstorm chances
increase this afternoon, and become more widespread overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

MESOSCALE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-
049-052>054-091945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
northeast North Dakota by 4pm, and then move east into northwest
Minnesota by late afternoon, exiting by early evening. Very large
hail greater than 2 inches along with a possible tornado will be
the initial threat, with a transition to a damaging wind threat as
the activity moves into Minnesota.

Additional numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota
this evening, mainly after 6pm. Activity will become more
widespread after 9pm. Clusters of storms will bring primarily a
damaging wind threat to this area, continuing until well after
midnight.

Excessive rainfall is possible, especially for areas that have
seen high rain totals over the past couple days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers with embedded Thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday,
mainly within the Red River Valley into Minnesota. Minor impacts
from excessive rainfall may be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters will be needed today into the overnight hours.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-091945-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter spotters will not be needed today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             1 WSW JOLIETTE          48.82N 97.24W
06/07/2020  E1.00 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
139 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             2 ESE NEW ROCKFORD      47.67N 99.11W
06/07/2020  E2.00 INCH       EDDY               ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF 2 INCH HAIL VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
145 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             2 ENE TWIN VALLEY       47.26N 96.22W
06/07/2020  E1.00 INCH       NORMAN             MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
255 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NDZ008-016-054-082030-
Pembina ND-Eastern Walsh County ND-Western Walsh County ND-
255 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WALSH AND SOUTHEASTERN
PEMBINA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 255 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Park River, or 18 miles west of Grafton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mandt around 305 PM CDT.
  Hoople, Crystal and Nash around 315 PM CDT.
  Auburn around 320 PM CDT.
  St. Thomas around 325 PM CDT.
  Glasston around 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4825 9774 4839 9803 4882 9751 4864 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 220DEG 36KT 4840 9780

NC