Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Rain will continue across the area through Thursday
afternoon/evening...Then we finally get a break. Current mosaic
radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms extending from the TX/NW
border to the Carolinas. Also there is a closes low developing along
the TX gulf coast and it will move east along the coast through
tonight. This low will pull all this moisture eastward with it
allowing a high pressure center to build south out of the central
plains behind it. This ridge is what will shut the rain off for the
weekend. The closed low center will be centered over the Northern by
18z  and push off the GA/FL/SC coast by 009z Friday. Drier air
begins to push into N GA Thu evening with things clearing out across
the entire state by Friday morning. With the main low centered
expected to stay south of our CWA the best instabilities are also
expected to stay south. We will see some isolated storms tonight and
Thursday but not expecting much in the way of strong to severe
storms. This is right in line with SPC keeping the slight risk area
across South GA through Thu night. Temps Tonight and Thu night
expected to stay mainly in the 40s. Highs expected in the 50s Thu.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Relief from the rain is on the horizon! The long term period
kicks off on Friday morning with northwest flow aloft across the
eastern U.S. with upper-level ridging and surface high pressure
settling in across the Southeast on Saturday and Sunday. This will
lead to dry conditions and temperatures (especially lows) across
the CWA around 5-10 degrees below average through the weekend.

The next chance for rain will come with a low pressure system and
attendant cold front approaching from the west on Monday
evening/overnight, though there are model discrepancies in terms
of timing. The GFS is faster in bringing rain to north Georgia
(with rain progged to reach northwest Georgia as early as Monday
night) with the main axis of rain meandering across north Georgia
into Tuesday. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is currently a good 6
hours slower in bringing the rain in. While there is still
uncertainty in terms of storm potential, will have to keep an eye
on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the GFS is hinting at marginal
instability across portions of the CWA. The chance for rain
showers will remain in the forecast on Wednesday as the cold front
sinks into Georgia.

After this cooler-than-normal weekend, temperatures will climb
back to around 5-15 degrees above average (with highs in the 60s
and 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s) for the first half of next
week.

Martin

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Rain expected to continue through this TAF set but the end is
near. Ceilings are mainly in the VFR to MVFR range but expecting
them to fall into the IFR range overnight. The low ceilings will
stay across the area through Midday Thursday and lift as the
precip comes to an end Thu evening. Winds are out of the SE but
will turn to the NW soon and stray there through sunset. Winds
will turn back to the NE by 03-05z Thu. Wind speeds expected
fairly light through 12z Thu then increase in the 10-15kt range.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          48  51  40  56 /  90  90  20   0
Atlanta         48  51  41  53 /  90  90  20   0
Blairsville     42  48  35  46 /  80  80  20   0
Cartersville    47  52  39  54 /  90  90  10   0
Columbus        51  57  43  61 / 100 100  20   0
Gainesville     46  49  40  52 /  80  90  20   0
Macon           51  55  41  60 / 100 100  20   0
Rome            47  54  39  54 /  80  80  10   0
Peachtree City  49  53  40  57 / 100 100  20   0
Vidalia         54  59  44  64 /  90 100  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for the following
zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...
Chattahoochee...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...
Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...
Heard...Henry...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...
Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...
Oconee...Paulding...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...
Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...
Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1200 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051700-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1200 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of north and central
Georgia, roughly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected to occur today with
widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches likely. Locally
higher amounts are possible. With high streamflows and already
saturated soils, runoff from this additional rain will only
exacerbate ongoing flooding issues.

An isolated strong to marginally severe storm is possible today as
a low pressure system moves east across the Southeast states. The
primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. An
isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through early Thursday
afternoon.

An isolated strong to marginally severe storm is possible again on
Thursday, mainly across southern portions of the outlook area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
458 PM EST WED MAR 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE CORDELE            31.99N  83.75W
03/04/2020                   CRISP              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            5 ACRE DAM BREACH AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR
            OLD BLACKSHEAR ROAD AND I-75 REPORTED BY EM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000245

LUSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
503 PM EST WED MAR 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FLOOD            2 SSE CORDELE           31.94N  83.77W
03/04/2020                   CRISP              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            5 HOMES THREATENED BY RISING WATERS FROM SMALL PONDS
            AND CREEK BEHIND THEM IN THE CEDAR LAKE SUBDIVISION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000246

LUSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
508 PM EST WED MAR 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FLOOD            3 NW EAST CRISP         31.99N  83.72W
03/04/2020                   CRISP              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS 10 HOMES THREATENED BY RISING WATERS FROM
            CRANE LAKE. NUMEROUS OTHER ROAD CLOSURES REPORTED AROUND
            THE COUNTY DUE TO ONGOING FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000247

LUSK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
525 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

GAZ102>108-042300-
Stewart GA-Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-Wilcox GA-Webster GA-
Pulaski GA-
525 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEWART...CRISP...DOOLY...
SUMTER...WILCOX...WEBSTER AND SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
EST...

At 523 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Cordele to near Sanford...and moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Americus, Cordele, Vienna, Lumpkin, Preston, Richland, Rochelle,
Plains, Byromville, Pineview, Pinehurst, Leslie, Pitts,
Andersonville, Lilly, De Soto, Dooling, Desoto, Weston and Cobb.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3188 8393 3191 8392 3189 8437 3197 8444
      3192 8446 3192 8491 3198 8496 3199 8507
      3222 8497 3222 8461 3213 8453 3213 8443
      3217 8443 3216 8418 3223 8418 3217 8403
      3218 8403 3223 8398 3222 8334 3185 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 250DEG 56KT 3196 8374 3196 8502

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
546 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

GAZ097-107>111-042315-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Wilcox GA-Laurens GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
546 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WHEELER...TELFAIR...
WILCOX...SOUTHERN LAURENS...DODGE AND SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM EST...

At 545 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Ocmulgee Banks to near Double Run...and moving
east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
McRae, Eastman, Abbeville, Helena, Rochelle, Milan, Rhine, Scotland,
Chauncey, Jacksonville, Union, Cedar Grove, Ocmulgee Banks, Jay Bird
Springs, China Hill, Double Run, Godwinsville, Cedar Creek, Antioch
Church and Temperance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3178 8303 3181 8309 3181 8314 3185 8318
      3185 8358 3226 8338 3227 8278 3178 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 254DEG 41KT 3218 8333 3188 8350

WIND...40MPH