Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

033 
WWUS53 KEAX 192339
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
639 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

MOC005-087-147-200000-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200320T0000Z/
Atchison MO-Holt MO-Nodaway MO-
639 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON...NORTHERN HOLT AND SOUTHWESTERN NODAWAY
COUNTIES...

At 639 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Craig, or near
Mound City, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mound City, Maitland, Skidmore, Craig, Graham, Big Lake, Quitman,
Fortescue and Bigelow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4040 9503 4018 9497 4000 9531 4003 9535
      4003 9540 4004 9542 4006 9542 4007 9539
      4010 9540 4012 9539 4014 9543 4040 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 208DEG 32KT 4014 9535 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Leighton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
228 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 228 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

The forecast focus is for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening with severe thunderstorms possible especially north of
Highway 36. Gusty winds tonight and colder temperatures through the
weekend.

Key Messages...

1. Severe weather threat this afternoon/evening, with supercells
possible with hail, strong winds, and a brief tornado possible. Best
chances are north of the Metro across northwest and northern
Missouri mainly north of Highway 36.

3. Strong winds behind cold front tonight with gusts up to 40 mph.

4. Much colder Friday morning through the weekend with lows in the
20s with potential for a hard freeze Friday and Saturday morning.

Discussion...

Satellite showing clouds clearing to the west of area reaching into
western portions of the forecast area, this clearing area will
advance through much of the forecast area this afternoon putting us
in a dry slot and allowing the low levels to warm and destabilize.
Expect isolated thunderstorms to fire between 3 and 5 PM along a
dryline in far eastern Kansas ahead of cold front with supercells
possible. Best chance of severe storms will be north of Highway 36
in the left exit region of 130 knot jet streak, producing hail to
golf balls, wind gusts to 65 mph, and a brief tornado or two
possible. South of this area storms should be a bit weaker as upper
level jet will be overhead which will create subsidence which may
suppress storm development, however if any storms do go severe in
this area expect hail to quarters, wind gusts to 60 mph, and a brief
tornado. Storm activity will diminish and move east before midnight.

Tonight/Friday: Tight pressure gradient with cold air advection
tonight will produce wind gusts up to 40 mph. Otherwise it will be
much cooler with highs on Friday in the upper 30s and low 40s. More
sunshine expected which will help to cheer spirits through Saturday.
Hard freeze likely Friday and Saturday morning with lows in the 20s.

Sunday a shortwave trough will bring chances of precipitation across
the area, it looks like temperatures will be cold enough Sunday
morning to produce a rain/snow mix or light snow north of the
Missouri River, however accumulations should be very light. Still
some uncertainty with temperatures Sunday morning, so stay tuned as
forecast could change in regards to precipitation type.

Finally, late Monday into Tuesday a stronger system moves into the
area which will bring more precipitation and perhaps some
thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

MVFR ceilings will clear with VFR this afternoon and gusty winds,
expect isolated thunderstorms to develop between 3pm and 7pm,
some of these storms could be severe with hail, strong winds, and
a brief tornado. However expect most of the storms to be north of
Metro area, so KSTJ may see better chances of severe storms.
Otherwise expect LLWS this evening until around midnight. A cold
front will sweep through area around midnight with gusty northwest
winds to 30 knots also MVFR cigs will move in behind cold front
and then clear by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Christensen
Aviation...Christensen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1231 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201745-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
1231 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

 Isolated to scattered storms are then expected during the afternoon
 and evening. The greatest chance for severe weather with this round
 is going to be along and north of a line from St. Joseph to
 Columbia, MO. Hail up to golf ball sized, damaging winds up to 65
 mph, and a tornado or two are possible. South and west of this
 line, it'll be harder for storms to get going. If a healthy storm
 can develop, then hail up to quarter sized, damaging winds up to 60
 mph, and a brief tornado are possible. Minor flooding is possible.
 Storms move out tonight.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Cold weather returns tonight, bringing subfreezing temperatures
 Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings. Next chance for showers and
 storms is early next week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
436 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

MOZ001-192145-
Atchison MO-
436 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL ATCHISON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Riverton, or 10 miles northwest of Tarkio, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Atchison County.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9550 4058 9535 4051 9547 4054 9558
      4059 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 222DEG 42KT 4057 9548

Leighton