Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
616 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

A few storms may form this afternoon across portions of the CWA.
If this occurs, the strongest storms will be capable of producing
small hail and wind gusts around 50 mph. These storms are then
expected to dissipate this evening as they slide southeast into
Oklahoma. Dry conditions and decreasing cloudiness is then
expected for the remainder of the night. A better chance of storms
are expected tomorrow as an upper level shortwave moves through
the area. These storms are expected to form along a frontal
boundary across west central Kansas in the afternoon then slide
southeast into central Kansas by tomorrow evening. A few of these
storms are expected to become severe with large hail, damaging
winds, and an isolated tornado being the main concern. As for
temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the low to mid
60s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Thunderstorm chances are anticipated each afternoon/evening across
portions of western Kansas through the long term period. This is
due to weak shortwaves moving down through northwest flow aloft,
ample moisture in the atmosphere, and frontal boundaries being the
focal point of convection at the surface. Temperatures will
generally reach into the upper 80s to low 90s with lows dipping
into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

A trough of low pressure at the surface will remain nearly
stationary across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas which will
result in the winds staying south southeast at 10 to 15
knots overnight. There will also be a chance for isolated
thunderstorms in the Dodge City and Hays areas through sunset.
Ceilings near these storms this evening will be in the 5000 to
9000ft AGL level based on latest BUFR soundings. VFR ceilings will
give way to clearing skies after 06z Sunday. Clouds at or above
6000ft AGL level will be on the increase after 18z Sunday as an
upper trough approaches from the west. There will even be a chance
for some scattered thunderstorms in the Hays area. Southerly
winds will continue through the day on Sunday at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  92  62  90 /  30  40  40  10
GCK  61  91  61  90 /  20  30  30  10
EHA  62  95  62  95 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  62  95  62  93 /   0  20  20  10
HYS  63  92  63  88 /  30  60  40  20
P28  65  92  66  92 /  10  30  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210715-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
202 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 /102 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across central and
eastern portions of southwest Kansas late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
hazards with isolated tornadoes a possibility.

An active pattern will continue through the week with thunderstorm
chances virtually each day.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1121 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             3 E DODGE CITY          37.76N 99.97W
06/20/2020  M1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

KSZ078>080-210515-
Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
1129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD...NORTHWESTERN
KIOWA...SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL
1215 AM CDT...

At 1129 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Windhorst, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Offerle, Windhorst and Bellefont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9976 3791 9961 3791 9957 3792 9957
      3792 9955 3778 9938 3767 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 316DEG 7KT 3783 9959

RUSSELL