Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...Significant Severe Weather Episode This Afternoon/Evening...

WFO DDC is preparing for severe weather operations early this
afternoon. Nearly full insolation has heated a very moist boundary
layer through midday, with mesoanalysis of up to 6000 J/kg SBCAPE
in SW KS. Shear has modestly improved, with effective bulk shear
to near 35 kts. As NWly flow aloft increases this afternoon, and
an embedded shortwave/associated forcing for ascent arrives,
explosive thunderstorm development is expected. Convection will
fire quickly across the northern zones by 3 pm. Have coordinated
with SPC on the upgrade to moderate risk probability. HRRR has
shown strong consistency with storms quickly organizing into a
severe squall line, and then marching out of the SE zones around
10 pm. Damaging winds are likely with this squall line, with gusts
of 60-70 mph common. Some gusts to near hurricane force may occur,
given a linear configuration and tremendous CAPE axis. Large hail
will be focused across the initial northern storms. That said,
will be watching for discrete supercell development on the tail
end of the squall line (tail end Charlie) or just ahead of the
squall line. If a discrete supercell can be maintained through 5-7
pm, then giant hail and a tornado risk would occur. There is some
CAM consensus that this threat would focus on the Dodge-Garden-
Liberal triangle vicinity 5-7 pm. MCS will clear the SE zones by
midnight, with all zones dry after midnight. There is some
potential for another round of convection amid the continued NW
flow aloft Monday afternoon/evening, but much of the atmosphere
will be strongly worked over through tonight. As such, any
thunderstorms Monday PM will likely favor the Oklahoma border
region, where reasonable instability will have the best
opportunity to reload.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Weak disturbances will continue to move down through the northwest
flow aloft through at least the late part of the week. This will
bring a chance of storms across portions of western Kansas in the
late afternoon to evening hours. Otherwise expect partly cloudy
skies and winds generally from a southerly direction. As for
temperatures, highs will start out in the mid 80s Tuesday with low
to mid 90s for the remainder of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross in the Dodge
City and Liberal areas through 02z Monday. Wind gusts in excess
of 30 knots and reduced visibilities due to heavy rain will be
possible for the next hour or two with these storms near these two
locations. Ceilings will be as low as 3000ft AGL. Behind these
storms ceilings will improve and an easterly wind will develop at
10 knots or less. Between 10z and 14z Monday some patchy fog and
areas of ceilings in the 500ft to 1000ft AGL level will be
possible across southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  88  60  85 /  50  20  30  10
GCK  61  88  60  85 /  80  20  30  20
EHA  62  92  61  84 /  20  40  50  30
LBL  63  91  61  86 /  30  30  50  10
HYS  61  86  59  84 /  80  20  20  10
P28  66  90  63  87 /  90  30  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
520 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
520 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 /420 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in northwest Kansas this
afternoon and quickly move and spread to the south and east.
Storms will initially start out discrete and then quickly evolve
into a squall line. Hail could be 2 inches or greater, wind gusts
could get to 70 mph or greater, flash flooding is possible, and an
isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Another round of storms is expected to move out of eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Monday evening. The threat would
mainly be gusty winds.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 3 PM for areas along and
east of highway 83.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
606 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             1 W MONTEZUMA           37.60N 100.45W
06/21/2020  E1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
626 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             SUBLETTE                37.48N 100.85W
06/21/2020  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN AT SUBLETTE
            GAS STATION.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
648 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             KISMET                  37.20N 100.70W
06/21/2020  E1.00 INCH       SEWARD             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
649 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW SAINT JOHN         38.01N 98.78W
06/21/2020  E59 MPH          STAFFORD           KS   MESONET

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
651 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW PRESTON           37.78N 98.63W
06/21/2020  E60 MPH          PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
654 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CULLISON            37.63N 98.94W
06/21/2020                   PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAMPER WAS BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 54.

&&

RB