Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
126 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...Significant Severe Weather Episode This Afternoon/Evening...

WFO DDC is preparing for severe weather operations early this
afternoon. Nearly full insolation has heated a very moist boundary
layer through midday, with mesoanalysis of up to 6000 J/kg SBCAPE
in SW KS. Shear has modestly improved, with effective bulk shear
to near 35 kts. As NWly flow aloft increases this afternoon, and
an embedded shortwave/associated forcing for ascent arrives,
explosive thunderstorm development is expected. Convection will
fire quickly across the northern zones by 3 pm. Have coordinated
with SPC on the upgrade to moderate risk probability. HRRR has
shown strong consistency with storms quickly organizing into a
severe squall line, and then marching out of the SE zones around
10 pm. Damaging winds are likely with this squall line, with gusts
of 60-70 mph common. Some gusts to near hurricane force may occur,
given a linear configuration and tremendous CAPE axis. Large hail
will be focused across the initial northern storms. That said,
will be watching for discrete supercell development on the tail
end of the squall line (tail end Charlie) or just ahead of the
squall line. If a discrete supercell can be maintained through 5-7
pm, then giant hail and a tornado risk would occur. There is some
CAM consensus that this threat would focus on the Dodge-Garden-
Liberal triangle vicinity 5-7 pm. MCS will clear the SE zones by
midnight, with all zones dry after midnight. There is some
potential for another round of convection amid the continued NW
flow aloft Monday afternoon/evening, but much of the atmosphere
will be strongly worked over through tonight. As such, any
thunderstorms Monday PM will likely favor the Oklahoma border
region, where reasonable instability will have the best
opportunity to reload.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Weak disturbances will continue to move down through the northwest
flow aloft through at least the late part of the week. This will
bring a chance of storms across portions of western Kansas in the
late afternoon to evening hours. Otherwise expect partly cloudy
skies and winds generally from a southerly direction. As for
temperatures, highs will start out in the mid 80s Tuesday with low
to mid 90s for the remainder of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon east of GCK and LBL
creating periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities. These storms
will then slide southeast as the evening progresses. Winds this
afternoon will generally be from the south to southeast gusting
above 20 knots at times. Winds then decrease this evening into the
overnight with the exception of near the storms where higher gusts
will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  62  88  60 /  70  60  20  30
GCK  94  61  88  59 /  60  30  20  30
EHA  96  62  92  61 /  10  10  40  50
LBL  97  63  91  61 /  20  20  30  50
HYS  93  62  86  59 /  70  50  20  20
P28  94  66  90  63 /  30  90  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
520 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
520 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 /420 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in northwest Kansas this
afternoon and quickly move and spread to the south and east.
Storms will initially start out discrete and then quickly evolve
into a squall line. Hail could be 2 inches or greater, wind gusts
could get to 70 mph or greater, flash flooding is possible, and an
isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Another round of storms is expected to move out of eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Monday evening. The threat would
mainly be gusty winds.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 3 PM for areas along and
east of highway 83.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
309 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ031-212100-
Ellis KS-
309 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Codell, or 12 miles north of Emmeram, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Ellis
County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3898 9904 3900 9958 3913 9959 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 253DEG 21KT 3913 9911

HOVORKA