Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
340 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be quickly forming
late this afternoon into this evening across the northern half
of the state and will drift into southern PA early this evening
as a frontal boundary pushes through the state. It will remain
unsettled Thursday into Friday, and possibly right into the
weekend. High pressure and dry air take hold Sunday and lasts
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
The nose of MU capes exceeding 2000 J/KG is nosing into the NW
mtns attm and the airmass is recovering quickly after this
morning's widespread showers and strong to svr tsra.

Showers and scattered strong TSRA were firing rapidly within
this region of increasing instability. 0-1km were EHI's were
between 1-2 M2/S2 across much of our central and western zones,
with 0-1km bulk shear between 20-25 KTS. LCL heights were also
only 750-1000M over roughly the NW half of the CWA.

The blossoming area of convection will sink right through the
current SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area for svr and strengthen over
the next several hours. By 00Z Thu, the broken line of strong
to SVR convection will be across the southern 1-2 layers of PA
counties, and sink south of the Mason/Dixon line around dark.

Temps have rebounded into the low-mid 80s across all but the
northern tier with sfc dewpoints mainly in the mid to upper
60s.

Westerly winds will continue to gust into the teens and 20s
over the SW/SC ahead of the expanding area of TSRA fueling SR
inflow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Storms should still be going early this evening in the southern
third of the area. Clearing will spread south across the region
late tonight, but may self-destruct and turn to some fog.

Low clouds are also possible where the wind is an upslope
(Alleghenies). Storms/showers will diminish for everyone but
they could hang on until around or shortly after midnight across
the Laurels. Sticky air will keep the temps from falling out of
the mid 60s for about half of the area, though some clearing
will allow the nrn mtns to dip into the 50s.

The old boundary will likely be along the srn border Thurs
morning, the sfc wind will be light and SWrly. Upper flow
flattens to a W-E direction, and lingering moisture and daytime
heat will lead to showers and storms in the aftn. The shear will
be lacking, but CAPEs could reach 1000 or better across the
south. So, a few of the storms could go severe, but most likely,
without the shear, many will be sub-severe. SPC MRGL risk is
enough to keep a close eye on them. Maxes Thurs will be just as
warm across the north than the south, thanks to more sun up
north. The coolest place will be the Laurels where clouds and a
higher chc of showers exist.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The old front will stall near the PA-MD border on Thu, keeping
a chance of rain showers and maybe a few PM tstms through Fri.
Generally a quarter to half an inch of rain is expected across
the southern counties Thu-Fri, with locally higher amounts in
storms. Lesser amounts north.

The stationary front is progged to move offshore Fri night, with
slightly drier air moving in for Sat. Another cold front and
shortwave trough may touch off isolated showers/storms Sat, but
drier air will be a limiting factor. Cooler, drier air will move
in behind this front for Sun-Mon. We will see a warming trend
into the middle of next week as the remnants of TS Cristobal
moving up the MS valley help build an upper ridge over the
eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A second round of scattered showers and t-storms will develop
across parts of the airspace late this afternoon through early
tonight. Outside of t-storms, expect mainly VFR conditions to
prevail during the 03/012Z TAF period. Some patchy fog is
possible in the northern tier late tonight into early Thursday.

Outlook...

Thu...Showers/t-storms likely especially srn 1/2.

Fri-Sat...Chance of showers/t-storms.

Sun...VFR/no sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Lambert
LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1250 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

PAZ012-018-019-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-041700-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
1250 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with localized damaging wind
gusts 60 mph or greater and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter
are possible late this afternoon and evening. An isolated weak,
short- lived tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-037-041700-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Tioga-
1250 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible late this
afternoon and early this evening. An isolated weak, short-lived
tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ033>035-041700-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
1250 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon
and this evening. An isolated weak and short-lived tornado is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible, mainly after noon on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ024>028-036-056-057-059-063>066-041700-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1250 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible late this
afternoon and evening. An isolated weak, short-lived tornado is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible, mainly after noon on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
126 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E SMETHPORT           41.81N 78.42W
06/03/2020                   MCKEAN             PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN EAST OF SMETHPORT.

&&

ART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
134 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SMETHPORT               41.80N 78.44W
06/03/2020                   MCKEAN             PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN AROUND
            SMETHPORT SCHOOL BUILDINGS.

&&

ART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE SMETHPORT         41.82N 78.38W
06/03/2020                   MCKEAN             PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALONG BAKER ROAD.

&&

ART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
255 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

PAZ010-011-031930-
Cameron PA-Elk PA-
255 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ELK AND CAMERON
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Truman, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Benezette around 305 PM EDT.
  Hicks Run around 310 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Driftwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4137 7799 4125 7807 4122 7810 4123 7828
      4141 7858 4156 7845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 302DEG 37KT 4144 7843

Jurewicz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
353 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

PAZ006-011-012-032030-
Potter PA-Northern Clinton PA-Cameron PA-
353 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF POTTER...CAMERON...AND
CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Stevenson Dam, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tamarack around 400 PM EDT.
  Westport around 405 PM EDT.
  Renovo and South Renovo around 410 PM EDT.
  Hyner around 415 PM EDT.
  Glen Union around 420 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 7743 4125 7740 4113 7751 4111 7759
      4141 7818 4157 7802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 310DEG 45KT 4143 7802

Jurewicz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
401 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

PAZ019-045-049-032045-
Southern Clinton PA-Union PA-Southern Centre PA-
401 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRE...UNION...AND
CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 401 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Mackeyville, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rebersburg around 410 PM EDT.
  Carroll and Woodward around 420 PM EDT.
  Laurelton Center, R.B. Winter State Park and Weikert around 425 PM
  EDT.
  Sand Bridge State Park around 430 PM EDT.
  Mifflinburg and Forest Hill around 435 PM EDT.
  Penns Creek and Vicksburg around 440 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Loganton, New Berlin,
Hartleton, McCall Dam State Park and Lock Haven University.

This includes the following COVID-19 Test Sites...
UPMC Susquehanna Lock Haven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4089 7685 4089 7694 4087 7700 4086 7702
      4087 7706 4083 7727 4104 7761 4113 7752
      4117 7745 4090 7684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 305DEG 35KT 4107 7747

Jurewicz