Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
742 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Potentially strong thunderstorms are expected today and into
the evening as a frontal boundary slides southward through the
state. It will remain unsettled Thursday into Friday, and
possibly right into the weekend. High pressure and dry air take
hold Sunday and lasts into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Earlier strong/severe storms have dropped into the lower Susq
valley and continue southward. While they have weakened, some of
the cells are still potent. They continue to move into less-
favorable air, esp at the sfc. This convection seems to be more
aloft than sfc-based. They should continue to weaken.

Eyes turn to the large storms moving over LE from Lower ONT.
These are on track to reach Warren Co around 6 AM. Will see what
the lake water/temps and dewpoints do to them. This convection
is a little faster than what model solutions have going. This
would have repercussions on the going fcst, perhaps resulting
in the storms being less potent if the heating of the day does
not have as much time to occur before the storms reach the
NC/NErn counties. However, the latest HRRR does develop a new
batch of storms back to the west of this stuff, and moves it
across in the current timing of the forecast. This is in line
with the most notable short wave trough we see in this fast WNW
flow. So, will hold the line for the time being on all timing,
but add in the mention of stronger storms arriving a little
quicker in the NW.

Storm attributes/mode appear to be supercellular at first, but
then would morph into clusters/bowing segments. Bulk shear is
50-60kts with the mid-levels holding 60kt westerly winds which,
on a uni-direction shear day like today, will efficiently mix
down and producing long-lived bow echoes. Lingering boundaries
from overnight convection will make plenty of places to generate
storms. The early-day timing across the north is a slight
detriment to severe potential.

Some sunshine and heating is expected in the SW, and the main
boundary for storms to focus upon will create locations in the
central and SWrn counties for development this aftn. The
coverage over the Lower Susq and S-Central mtns is expected to
be lower, but the atmos is still potent there. There may be
CAPEs in the 2000 range in the SE, but high cloud coverage from
upstream convection could knock that down. Shear is also around
40KTs there, lower than inn the north. It is only a couple of
times a year that Central PA is placed into a ENH risk, so we
need to be attentive to any cells that develop.

Temps will be a function of the clearing we get and how early
the storms occur in the north. Maxes should get into the 80s in
the south, but only the lower 70s along the NY border. Wind will
probably be gusting into the 20s over the SW/SC before the
storms flare up there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Storms should still be going early this evening in the southern
third of the area, but clearing should be starting across the
north. This clearing may self-destruct and turn to some fog, but
if the clearing occurs earlier in the aftn, it could dry out
well enough to keep fog patchy. Low clouds are also possible
where the wind is an upslope (Alleghenies). Storms/showers will
diminish for everyone but the SW around or shortly after
midnight. Sticky air will keep the temps from falling out of the
mid 60s for about half of the area. With some clearing, the nrn
mtns could get into the 50s.

The old boundary will likely be along the srn border Thurs
morning, the sfc wind will be light and SWrly. Upper flow
flattens to a W-E direction, and lingering moisture and daytime
heat will lead to showers and storms in the aftn. The shear will
be lacking, but CAPEs could reach 1000 or better across the
south. So, a few of the storms could go severe, but most likely,
without the shear, many will be sub-severe. SPC MRGL risk is
enough to keep a close eye on them. Maxes Thurs will be just as
warm across the north than the south, thanks to more sun up
north. The coolest place will be the Laurels where clouds and a
higher chc of showers exist.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The old front will stall near the PA-MD border on Thu, keeping
a chance of rain showers and maybe a few PM tstms through Fri.
Generally a quarter to half an inch of rain is expected across
the southern counties Thu-Fri, with locally higher amounts in
storms. Lesser amounts north.

The stationary front is progged to move offshore Fri night, with
slightly drier air moving in for Sat. Another cold front and
shortwave trough may touch off isolated showers/storms Sat, but
drier air will be a limiting factor. Cooler, drier air will move
in behind this front for Sun-Mon. We will see a warming trend
into the middle of next week as the remnants of TS Cristobal
moving up the MS valley help build an upper ridge over the
eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Multiple rounds of showers and t-storms will move across parts
of the airspace from early this morning through early tonight.
Confidence in exact timing/details is still somewhat uncertain,
but the general storm evolution seemed to be handled reasonably
well by the hires models. A cluster of storms currently moving
across Lake Erie is fcst to track northwest to southeast across
north-central PA from 13-18Z. Additional t-storms should form
along a southeastward advancing cold front and impact the south
central airspace later this afternoon into early tonight.
Outside of t-storms, expect mainly VFR conditions to prevail
during the 03/012Z TAF period. Some patchy fog is possible in
the northern tier late tonight into early Thursday.

Outlook...

Thu...Showers/t-storms likely especially srn 1/2.

Fri-Sat...Chance of showers/t-storms.

Sun...VFR/no sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Evanego
LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1038 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

PAZ012-017>019-024>026-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-041445-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-
Blair-Huntingdon-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Schuylkill-
1038 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State
College Facebook page or Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web
at weather.gov/ctp.

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-041445-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Tioga-
1038 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon.
An isolated weak, short-lived tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State
College Facebook page or Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web
at weather.gov/ctp.

PAZ033>035-041445-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
1038 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon
and early this evening. An isolated weak, short-lived tornado is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible, mainly after noon on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State
College Facebook page or Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web
at weather.gov/ctp.

PAZ027-028-036-056-057-059-063>066-041445-
Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
1038 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail
are possible, mainly after noon on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State
College Facebook page or Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web
at weather.gov/ctp.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW IRVONA            40.84N 78.59W
06/03/2020                   CLEARFIELD         PA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES.

&&

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1038 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE BELLEFONTE        40.92N 77.76W
06/03/2020                   CENTRE             PA   PUBLIC

            TREE BLOCKING ROADWAY.

&&

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W ZION                40.92N 77.69W
06/03/2020                   CENTRE             PA   PUBLIC

            TREE BLOCKING ROADWAY.

&&

RXR

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