Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
652 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
With a muggy air mass in place ahead of a frontal
boundary, showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening.  Some storms will be severe with strong winds and heavy
rainfall. Behind the front, much cooler and less humid conditions
are expected for the weekend.  Dry and comfortable weather will
continue for the start of next week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 652 PM EDT...Potent upper level shortwave is seen in
water vapor imagery across lower Michigan. Associated with this
feature is a surface cold front that is moving across far
western New York. Ahead of this boundary, several bands of
convection have been occurring across all of Upstate New York.
While thunderstorms have initially been cellular or forming
clusters, they have recently been organizing into small lines,
as the increasing 0-6 km shear of around 30-40 kts has been
favorable for linear development.

With a warm and humid air mass in place (dewpoints nearing 70
degrees), MLCAPE has been around 1500 J/kg across much of the
area. Lines of severe storms have been ongoing this evening,
especially across the Lake George-Glens Falls-Saratoga Springs
areas. Damaging winds have been the main threat with the storms
as they move west to east across the region. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch continues for all of eastern Upstate NY and southern VT
until 9 PM.

By later this evening, severe convection will be weakening due
to diurnal cooling and decreasing instability. Some showers may
linger into the overnight as the front slowly crosses the area
from west to east, but the threat for severe winds and lightning
should be ending before midnight.

Overnight lows look to fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s. It will
initially be rather muggy, but dewpoints should finally start
falling by the late night as the front finally crosses the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected over the
weekend.

The cold front will continue to depart off to the east on
Saturday morning. It looks to slow down and possibly stall as it
gets towards eastern New England. There may be some morning
showers/clouds associated with the boundary for eastern areas.
In addition, a few afternoon showers could develop over central
New York thanks to the approaching upper level trough and these
could spread into western areas by later in the day as well.
Otherwise, it will be drier with a mix of sun and clouds through
the day.

Daytime highs will be noticeably cooler in the mid 60s to mid
70s, with dewpoints falling through the 50s and eventually the
40s by late in the day.

The upper level trough will be overhead for Saturday night into
Sunday. 850 hpa temps will fall close to 0 C. After a cool night
of lows in the 40s for Saturday night, daytime highs will only
reach the mid 50s to mid 60s for Sunday, with a gusty northwest
breeze. Dewpoints will only be in the 30s, which is quite dry
for the last day of May.

On Sunday night, high pressure building into the area from the
Ohio Valley will allow for decreasing winds and clear skies.
With the dry atmosphere in place, this should set the stage for
good radiational cooling. It will be very chilly, and temps
will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s for lows. Some frost
cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks
and southern VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Guidance is in agreement with an amplified blocky longwave pattern
across the CONUS with a trough over the Northeast and a ridge over
the south-central United States to start the week. Heights are
expected to rise over the Northeast as the trough departs and
ridging tries to build in early in the week. However, the ridge is
expected to get quickly surpressed as short waves approaches
and move through mid to late in the week. At the surface, high
pressure over the eastern United States is expected to shift
offshore with a return flow developing. Cold fronts associated
with the short waves will sweep through bring chances for
showers to the area.

The first day of June will feature below normal temperature by 5 to
10 degrees with cyclonic flow across the region. Temperatures will
moderate and be seasonably warm the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWS WSR-88D Radars showing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing across New York State north and west of the
mid Hudson Valley.  Chances for scattered thunderstorms will
increase across the Albany Forecast Area during the late afternoon
into the evening. Have included tempo for thunder in TAFs as latest
convective allowing models show coverage to increase substantially
this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger
through much of the evening, as a slow moving cold front progresses
eastward. Cold front should be east of the TAF sites by mid morning
Saturday and winds will become more west to northwest tomorrow.

Winds today will be southerly around 10-15 kt with gusts of
20-25 kt, especially at KALB/KPSF. Stronger winds gusts will be
possible within any thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Winds will shift to the west tomorrow morning after the
cold front passes.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thanks to a cold front, showers and thunderstorms will move
across the region this evening, bringing a wetting rainfall to
many areas. Behind the frontal boundary, drier and cooler
weather is expected this weekend. RH values will be as low as 40
percent on Saturday and as low as 25 to 35 percent on Sunday.
West winds will be 5 to 10 mph on Saturday and northwest winds
will be 10 to 15 mph for Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening.
Some of the thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours,
with up to an inch possible. This rainfall may allow for sharp
rises on small streams and creeks, as well as ponding of water
in urban areas. However, large scale flooding is not expected,
as the heavy rainfall will be localized in nature and recent dry
conditions will alleviate widespread issues. While some larger
rivers may see minor rises, no river flooding is expected.

Dry weather is then expected for the weekend into early next
week. This will allow for any small rises to recede quickly and
river levels to remain steady into the upcoming week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
646 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-VTZ013>015-301100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
646 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern New York and southern
Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN activation is requested for all of eastern Upstate New York
and southern Vermont. Please send any reports of flooding, damaging
winds or hail to the National Weather Service via email, social media
or phone.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-301100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-
646 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms this evening will be capable of producing gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. A few storms may be severe with damaging winds
and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. Please send any reports
of flooding, damaging winds or hail to the National Weather Service
via email, social media or phone.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
737 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

CTZ001-013-NYZ065-066-300000-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Eastern Dutchess-Western
Dutchess-
737 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES...

At 736 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Pawling, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Milford, Pawling, Kent, New Preston, Woodbury Center, Wingdale,
Gaylordsville, Hopewell Junction, Woodbury, Bethlehem,
Washington, Roxbury, Stormville, and Hotchkissville.

LAT...LON 4149 7337 4151 7339 4149 7344 4152 7344
      4163 7350 4165 7349 4167 7351 4166 7352
      4153 7353 4151 7373 4161 7381 4183 7333
      4156 7312 4156 7316 4151 7316 4151 7332
      4149 7333 4147 7331 4147 7333
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 238DEG 44KT 4158 7366

MSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
738 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

NYZ032-033-038-300030-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
738 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND
CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 737 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Trenton Falls,
or 10 miles northeast of Utica, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Northwood around 745 PM EDT.
  Ohio around 750 PM EDT.
  Lake Pleasant and Moffitt Beach Campground around 825 PM EDT.
  Speculator around 830 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Gilmantown, Nobleboro,
Perkins Clearing, Farrel Corner, Clockmill Corners, Russia, Piseco,
Wilmurt Corners, Morehouseville and Hoffmeister.

LAT...LON 4330 7515 4330 7512 4332 7510 4333 7508
      4339 7508 4371 7459 4344 7429 4328 7470
      4329 7471 4328 7471 4311 7515 4312 7516
      4322 7507 4324 7507 4323 7510 4326 7516
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 236DEG 43KT 4323 7514

DBT