Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
436 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
With a muggy air mass in place ahead of a frontal
boundary, showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening.  Some storms will be severe with strong winds and heavy
rainfall. Behind the front, much cooler and less humid conditions
are expected for the weekend.  Dry and comfortable weather will
continue for the start of next week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 422 PM EDT...Potent upper level shortwave is seen in
water vapor imagery across lower Michigan. Associated with this
feature is a surface cold front that is located across Ontario
and is heading towards western New York. Ahead of this boundary,
several bands of convection are occurring across New York and
Pennsylvania. While thunderstorms have initially been cellular
or forming clusters, they are now starting to organize into
small lines, as the increasing 0-6 km shear of around 30-40 kts
is favorable for linear development.

With a warm and humid air mass in place (dewpoints nearing 70
degrees), MLCAPE has been around 1500 J/kg across much of the
area. Several severe storms have already occurred, and a more
organized threat for severe weather is anticipated through
about 9 PM, as a line of storms over CNY continues to organize
and head eastward. Damaging winds and cloud-to-ground lightning
will continue to be the main threat, although small hail and
heavy rainfall are possible as well. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is in effect for all of eastern NY through 9 PM.

By later this evening, severe convection will be weakening due
to diurnal cooling and decreasing instability. Some showers may
linger into the overnight as the front slowly crosses the area
from west to east, but the threat for severe winds and lightning
should be ending before midnight.

Overnight lows look to fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s. It will
initially be rather muggy, but dewpoints should finally start
falling by the late night as the front finally crosses the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected over the
weekend.

The cold front will continue to depart off to the east on
Saturday morning. It looks to slow down and possibly stall as it
gets towards eastern New England. There may be some morning
showers/clouds associated with the boundary for eastern areas.
In addition, a few afternoon showers could develop over central
New York thanks to the approaching upper level trough and these
could spread into western areas by later in the day as well.
Otherwise, it will be drier with a mix of sun and clouds through
the day.

Daytime highs will be noticeably cooler in the mid 60s to mid
70s, with dewpoints falling through the 50s and eventually the
40s by late in the day.

The upper level trough will be overhead for Saturday night into
Sunday. 850 hpa temps will fall close to 0 C. After a cool night
of lows in the 40s for Saturday night, daytime highs will only
reach the mid 50s to mid 60s for Sunday, with a gusty northwest
breeze. Dewpoints will only be in the 30s, which is quite dry
for the last day of May.

On Sunday night, high pressure building into the area from the
Ohio Valley will allow for decreasing winds and clear skies.
With the dry atmosphere in place, this should set the stage for
good radiational cooling. It will be very chilly, and temps
will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s for lows. Some frost
cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks
and southern VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Guidance is in agreement with an amplified blocky longwave pattern
across the CONUS with a trough over the Northeast and a ridge over
the south-central United States to start the week. Heights are
expected to rise over the Northeast as the trough departs and
ridging tries to build in early in the week. However, the ridge is
expected to get quickly surpressed as short waves approaches
and move through mid to late in the week. At the surface, high
pressure over the eastern United States is expected to shift
offshore with a return flow developing. Cold fronts associated
with the short waves will sweep through bring chances for
showers to the area.

The first day of June will feature below normal temperature by 5 to
10 degrees with cyclonic flow across the region. Temperatures will
moderate and be seasonably warm the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWS WSR-88D Radars showing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing across New York State north and west of the
mid Hudson Valley.  Chances for scattered thunderstorms will
increase across the Albany Forecast Area during the late afternoon
into the evening. Have included tempo for thunder in TAFs as latest
convective allowing models show coverage to increase substantially
this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger
through much of the evening, as a slow moving cold front progresses
eastward. Cold front should be east of the TAF sites by mid morning
Saturday and winds will become more west to northwest tomorrow.

Winds today will be southerly around 10-15 kt with gusts of
20-25 kt, especially at KALB/KPSF. Stronger winds gusts will be
possible within any thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Winds will shift to the west tomorrow morning after the
cold front passes.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thanks to a cold front, showers and thunderstorms will move
across the region this evening, bringing a wetting rainfall to
many areas. Behind the frontal boundary, drier and cooler
weather is expected this weekend. RH values will be as low as 40
percent on Saturday and as low as 25 to 35 percent on Sunday.
West winds will be 5 to 10 mph on Saturday and northwest winds
will be 10 to 15 mph for Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening.
Some of the thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours,
with up to an inch possible. This rainfall may allow for sharp
rises on small streams and creeks, as well as ponding of water
in urban areas. However, large scale flooding is not expected,
as the heavy rainfall will be localized in nature and recent dry
conditions will alleviate widespread issues. While some larger
rivers may see minor rises, no river flooding is expected.

Dry weather is then expected for the weekend into early next
week. This will allow for any small rises to recede quickly and
river levels to remain steady into the upcoming week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
422 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-301100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
422 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for all of eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN activation is requested for all of eastern Upstate New York.
Please send any reports of flooding, damaging winds or hail to the
National Weather Service via email, social media or phone.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-301100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
422 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms this evening will be capable of producing gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. A few storms may be severe with damaging winds
and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. Please send any reports
of flooding, damaging winds or hail to the National Weather Service
via email, social media or phone.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
518 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW JOHNSTOWN         43.00N  74.38W
05/29/2020                   FULTON             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN, TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2002435

RATHBUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
520 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JOHNSTOWN               43.01N  74.38W
05/29/2020                   FULTON             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN, TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2002436

RATHBUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
526 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUMMIT                  42.58N  74.59W
05/29/2020                   SCHOHARIE          NY   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE LIMB BLOCKING STATE ROUTE 10, TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2002437

RATHBUN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
526 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

NYZ032-033-038-292230-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
526 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 526 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 12 miles northwest of Big Moose to
Steuben. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

These storms will be near...
  Northwood around 545 PM EDT.
  Ohio around 550 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Eagle Nest, Little
Rapids, Beaver River, Nobleboro, Minnehaha, Carter Station, Quaker
Beach, First Lake, Deerland and Partlow.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

LAT...LON 4402 7426 4395 7430 4392 7434 4390 7431
      4345 7450 4327 7516 4330 7515 4333 7508
      4396 7515 4404 7513 4412 7428
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 245DEG 33KT 4397 7504 4331 7531

DBT

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