Storm Warning 110, NWS Anchorage, AK

776 
FZAK51 PAFC 032341
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041245-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 984 mb low moves to 180 nm south of Kodiak at 986 mb Sun 
morning then moves to 100 nm southeast of Cordova at 993 mb Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-041245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE after midnight. Near the
coast, E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 15
ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041245-
Resurrection Bay-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Higher winds 
and seas S of Caines Head. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041245-
Prince William Sound-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041245-
Port Valdez-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041245-
Valdez Narrows-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041245-
Valdez Arm-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041245-
Passage Canal-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041245-
Barren Islands East-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE wind 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041245-
Chiniak Bay-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041245-
Marmot Bay-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041245-
Shelikof Strait-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight. Patchy fog.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-041245-
Kachemak Bay-
341 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The latest low to impact the region moved over northern Kodiak
Island earlier today and is near Lake Iliamna this afternoon.
This is a more northerly track than anticipated so that has had
an effect on some of the forecasts today. This low is impressively
wrapped with the occluded front wrapped around the low three
times with the northern most one up near the Brooks Range.

In the upper levels, the low encompasses then entire state, both land
and marine areas. The trough associated with this low still
extends to around 30N with the jet stream pumping moisture along
it in to near the AlCan border. This means the main tap of
moisture is no longer over southern Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

While models seem to be in good agreement, they are struggling
some with the lows in the Gulf of Alaska. The one today tracked
noticeably farther north over Kodiak and Afognak Islands than the
track any of the models had in the last day. While there was model
consensus on the track, there was not correctness. The next low
to move into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday and Sunday night is being
moved farther eastward with each model run. The GFS and NAM now
are moving it inland near Yakutat and the EC and Canadian models
are taking it closer to Prince William Sound. All tracks are
farther east and will need to keep an eye on how this low develops
over the next few model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty southeast winds will
develop by evening then persist into Saturday and diminish by late
Saturday afternoon/evening. LLWS will remain until the
southeasterly winds move over the airport complex.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Winds remain elevated across Turnagain Arm, the Matanuska Valley
and Copper River Basin as a strong low pressure system tracks
northward over Southwest Alaska from Kodiak Island. The High Wind
Warning for Anchorage and the Portage Valley has been cancelled,
as winds looks slightly weaker than first forecast, especially
across the Anchorage Hillside. Gusty southeasterly winds,
however, are expected to continue through this afternoon, slowly
diminishing after midnight.

Rain is visible on radar across Southcentral and the southwestern
part of the state, with most of the rain confined to the coast
and the upslope side of the coastal mountain ranges. This will
continue through tomorrow, with most other areas remaining dry.
Flooding remains a concern throughout this time, with a Flood
Warning in effect for Seward and a Flood Watch in effect for Kenai
Lake and the Kenai River at Cooper Landing. Rounds of heavy
rainfall will continue through Monday for these locations and the
Gulf Coast.

On Sunday, another low pressure system will traverse the Gulf of
Alaska, heading further east than the current system. Models are
still struggling, albeit, have come into better agreement with a
northeastward progression across the Gulf. Landfall is expected
around the Cordova area sometime between Sunday night and Monday
afternoon. This will bring another round of winds and rain to the
area, with more rain forecasted for areas that were downsloped
with today's system. On Monday, expect a change of pace as winds
calm and conditions dry out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad low moving northward is bringing widespread showers to
much of Southwest Alaska. Highest totals are expected around
Bristol Bay in southwest flow as the low departs, though amounts
will remain minimal. Showers will taper off midday Saturday as
slightly drier air builds in, however slight precipitation
chances will persist under a series of upper level shortwaves.
Temperatures will gradually fall through the early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Showers will persist through the weekend in a general northerly
flow. High pressure will build over the western Aleutians Sunday
into Monday leading to calm conditions. Gusty winds out of bays
and passes may occur Sunday between Unalaska and Adak between
relatively strong high and low pressure.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...

Bering/Aleutians

Light northerly flow continues across the central/eastern
Bering/Aleutians on Monday. Winds flip to southerly and increase
to small craft levels for the western Aleutians late Monday due to
an approaching Kamchatka low. Early Tuesday, southeasterly flow
ramps up to gale force across the western Bering/Aleutians along
with widespread rainfall. This wind/rain spreads into central
Bering/Aleutians by mid to late Tuesday. Early Wednesday, the
Kamchatka low migrates towards the western Bering, with westerly
small craft/low end gale force winds expected across the western
and central portions of the Bering/Aleutians, while eastern areas
see southerly winds pick up to near gale force along with
plentiful rain. By late Wednesday the low in the western Bering
weakens with winds transitioning to westerly and falling back to
small craft levels.

Gulf of Alaska

On Monday a weakening low will be parked over Prince William
Sound early, with this storm system quickly heading interior and
diminishing by late Monday. As a result, southwesterly gale force
winds early on Monday across the Gulf should diminish below small
craft advisory levels by the afternoon/evening hours. Generally
light westerly flow then takes over for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast pattern remains progressive through the
workweek. The next storm to impact the Gulf of Alaska will lift
from the Pacific into Sunday/Monday. This will again bring
unsettled weather to Kodiak, but will mainly spare much of
mainland Alaska. The forecast track continues to shift east,
sparing much of Prince William Sound and Seward from the past week
of rains. A barrier jet is likely to impact the coast during that
time, as winds turn offshore by Monday. Across the Bering, a
transient ridge will slide east through Wednesday. The next Bering
low will slide across the Kamchatka Peninsula and move SE towards
Bristol Bay by Friday. This storm track leaves a very low
potential for coastal issues through this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale warning 119 125 130 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS/BG