Gale Warning 513, NWS Anchorage, AK

460 
FZAK61 PAFC 032342
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-041345-
342 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 984 mb low moves to 55N 151W at 986 mb Sun morning then moves 
to 60N 143W at 993 mb Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-041345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
342 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-041345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
342 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

168 
FZAK61 PAFC 041151
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-050045-
351 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 989 mb low at 55N 150W moves to 60N 143W at 993 mb Monday
morning. The low then continues inland and dissipates.

$$

PKZ351-050045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
351 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE to SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-050045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
351 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S to W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

787 
FZAK61 PAFC 042334
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-051315-
334 PM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 985 mb low at 57N 148W moves to 60N 143W at 990 mb Monday 
morning. The low then continues inland and gradually dissipates
through early Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ351-051315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
334 PM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-051315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
334 PM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

321 
FZAK61 PAFC 051124
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 AM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-060115-
324 AM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 986 mb at 59N 143W moves inland Mon afternoon. Weak low 
pressure then persists south of Prince William Sound through 
early Wednesday.

$$

PKZ351-060115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
324 AM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-060115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
324 AM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The latest low to impact the region moved over northern Kodiak
Island earlier today and is near Lake Iliamna this afternoon.
This is a more northerly track than anticipated so that has had
an effect on some of the forecasts today. This low is impressively
wrapped with the occluded front wrapped around the low three
times with the northern most one up near the Brooks Range.

In the upper levels, the low encompasses then entire state, both land
and marine areas. The trough associated with this low still
extends to around 30N with the jet stream pumping moisture along
it in to near the AlCan border. This means the main tap of
moisture is no longer over southern Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

While models seem to be in good agreement, they are struggling
some with the lows in the Gulf of Alaska. The one today tracked
noticeably farther north over Kodiak and Afognak Islands than the
track any of the models had in the last day. While there was model
consensus on the track, there was not correctness. The next low
to move into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday and Sunday night is being
moved farther eastward with each model run. The GFS and NAM now
are moving it inland near Yakutat and the EC and Canadian models
are taking it closer to Prince William Sound. All tracks are
farther east and will need to keep an eye on how this low develops
over the next few model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty southeast winds will
develop by evening then persist into Saturday and diminish by late
Saturday afternoon/evening. LLWS will remain until the
southeasterly winds move over the airport complex.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Winds remain elevated across Turnagain Arm, the Matanuska Valley
and Copper River Basin as a strong low pressure system tracks
northward over Southwest Alaska from Kodiak Island. The High Wind
Warning for Anchorage and the Portage Valley has been cancelled,
as winds looks slightly weaker than first forecast, especially
across the Anchorage Hillside. Gusty southeasterly winds,
however, are expected to continue through this afternoon, slowly
diminishing after midnight.

Rain is visible on radar across Southcentral and the southwestern
part of the state, with most of the rain confined to the coast
and the upslope side of the coastal mountain ranges. This will
continue through tomorrow, with most other areas remaining dry.
Flooding remains a concern throughout this time, with a Flood
Warning in effect for Seward and a Flood Watch in effect for Kenai
Lake and the Kenai River at Cooper Landing. Rounds of heavy
rainfall will continue through Monday for these locations and the
Gulf Coast.

On Sunday, another low pressure system will traverse the Gulf of
Alaska, heading further east than the current system. Models are
still struggling, albeit, have come into better agreement with a
northeastward progression across the Gulf. Landfall is expected
around the Cordova area sometime between Sunday night and Monday
afternoon. This will bring another round of winds and rain to the
area, with more rain forecasted for areas that were downsloped
with today's system. On Monday, expect a change of pace as winds
calm and conditions dry out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad low moving northward is bringing widespread showers to
much of Southwest Alaska. Highest totals are expected around
Bristol Bay in southwest flow as the low departs, though amounts
will remain minimal. Showers will taper off midday Saturday as
slightly drier air builds in, however slight precipitation
chances will persist under a series of upper level shortwaves.
Temperatures will gradually fall through the early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Showers will persist through the weekend in a general northerly
flow. High pressure will build over the western Aleutians Sunday
into Monday leading to calm conditions. Gusty winds out of bays
and passes may occur Sunday between Unalaska and Adak between
relatively strong high and low pressure.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...

Bering/Aleutians

Light northerly flow continues across the central/eastern
Bering/Aleutians on Monday. Winds flip to southerly and increase
to small craft levels for the western Aleutians late Monday due to
an approaching Kamchatka low. Early Tuesday, southeasterly flow
ramps up to gale force across the western Bering/Aleutians along
with widespread rainfall. This wind/rain spreads into central
Bering/Aleutians by mid to late Tuesday. Early Wednesday, the
Kamchatka low migrates towards the western Bering, with westerly
small craft/low end gale force winds expected across the western
and central portions of the Bering/Aleutians, while eastern areas
see southerly winds pick up to near gale force along with
plentiful rain. By late Wednesday the low in the western Bering
weakens with winds transitioning to westerly and falling back to
small craft levels.

Gulf of Alaska

On Monday a weakening low will be parked over Prince William
Sound early, with this storm system quickly heading interior and
diminishing by late Monday. As a result, southwesterly gale force
winds early on Monday across the Gulf should diminish below small
craft advisory levels by the afternoon/evening hours. Generally
light westerly flow then takes over for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast pattern remains progressive through the
workweek. The next storm to impact the Gulf of Alaska will lift
from the Pacific into Sunday/Monday. This will again bring
unsettled weather to Kodiak, but will mainly spare much of
mainland Alaska. The forecast track continues to shift east,
sparing much of Prince William Sound and Seward from the past week
of rains. A barrier jet is likely to impact the coast during that
time, as winds turn offshore by Monday. Across the Bering, a
transient ridge will slide east through Wednesday. The next Bering
low will slide across the Kamchatka Peninsula and move SE towards
Bristol Bay by Friday. This storm track leaves a very low
potential for coastal issues through this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale warning 119 125 130 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS/BG