Gale Warning 536, NWS Anchorage, AK

893 
FZAK51 PAFC 041208
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050100-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 mb low 210 nm southeast of Kodiak moves 110 nm northeast of
Middleton Island at 993 mb Monday morning. The low then continues
inland and dissipates.

$$

PKZ119-050100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Near the 
coast, E wind 40 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft. 
Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050100-
Resurrection Bay-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050100-
Prince William Sound-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050100-
Port Valdez-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050100-
Valdez Narrows-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050100-
Valdez Arm-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050100-
Passage Canal-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt by late morning. 
Seas 5 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT AND MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050100-
Barren Islands East-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050100-
Chiniak Bay-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050100-
Marmot Bay-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050100-
Shelikof Strait-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt by late morning. 
Seas 4 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-050100-
Kachemak Bay-
408 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
815 AM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Similar pattern, once again, remains in place this morning with
the ridge over western North America (slowly weakening) and a
broad trough across the North Pacific. There are signs that the
pattern is beginning to shift, however, as water vapor imagery
shows the flow across the North Pacific more west to east (zonal).
For the past week or so, the pattern has been very amplified or
meridional and now things are beginning to change. The current low
that affected the region today continues to move northwestward
towards Norton Sound. Another front is currently lifting northward
through Southcentral this morning in association with the low
over the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. As a result, gusty southeasterly
Turnagain Arm winds are blowing across west Anchorage, especially
near the airport, as well as the Anchorage Hillside. Palmer is
also reporting gusty southeasterly winds out of the Knik River
Valley now that the front has lifted through. Rain showers
continue to occur throughout the southern Mainland, as shown on
current radar imagery, with the typical locations on the leeward
side of the mountains being downsloped and other locations
receiving upslope.

The Bering Sea and the Aleutian Chain remain in a relatively quiet
pattern this morning as the jet stream remains well south of the
region. Therefore, the storm track is kept east of the region. The
cold air aloft has basically all been eradicated now with mostly
stratiform cloud cover with some breaks across much of the Bering
Sea and the Aleutian Chain. Multiple upper level shortwaves
moving around the backside of the current low over the Y-K Delta
are keeping occasional showers over the Bering. Therefore, these
will be more lift driven rather than the unstable case yesterday
when cold air was flowing over the Bering and picking up
moisture.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance generally remains in good agreement on the synoptic
scale features out through 3 days. The next storm system is coming
into better agreement on the latest model runs this morning with
the typical subtle differences between models on the exact track
and exact intensity. For the most part, though, there is much
agreement as compared to previous days and we now have higher
confidence in the forecast. The EC remains the furthest east with
the storm track this morning while all the other models (GFS, NAM,
and Canadian NH) are almost in lockstep with each other.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty southeast winds will
persist through this evening before diminishing. Some rain showers
are possible this morning that may result in a cloud deck of
5000ft, therefore, only hinted at this but didn't make it a solid
cloud deck. As the next system approaches, expect a wind shift to
out of the north for Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Monday)...

The strong low dominating the Gulf over the last couple days
has weakened significantly, exited the Southcentral area, and
is slowly making its way across the Southwest today. Multiple
embedded shortwaves are rotating around the now broad upper low,
keeping rainfall along the Southcentral coast today and tonight.
As a result, the threat of flooding for the Seward area and Kenai
River near Cooper Landing will continue.

By Sunday morning, another deep low enters the southern Gulf.
Models have been struggling with the path of this system over
the last couple days, but have since come into better agreement,
placing it just east of Kodiak Island today. This is an ideal
setup for strong winds over the western Gulf and southern Cook
Inlet, including widespread gales and a period of storm force
winds on Sunday. Thus, synoptic winds were increased from the
previous forecast - with emphasis over the Gulf and coastal
waters. The majority of the impacts associated with this low
will be marine related, specifically with regard to winds.
However, the coastal regions will see heavy rainfall by Sunday
afternoon, diminishing to light rain by mid-morning on Monday.

Downsloping will not be an issue with this low, as the more
easterly track will produce a more northerly/northeasterly low
level flow over Southcentral on the north side of the low. Thus,
those areas which have been dry with the current storm will
likely see some periods of light rain on Sunday. There remains,
however, some uncertainty with the path of this low. Should this
system track further east (as at least one model shows), winds
along southern Cook Inlet and the western Gulf may end up weaker
than currently forecast. Additionally, with a more easterly track,
Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley would remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad low moving northward is bringing widespread showers to
much of Southwest Alaska. Highest totals are expected around
Bristol Bay in southwest flow as the low departs, though amounts
will remain minimal. Showers will taper off midday Saturday as
slightly drier air builds in, however slight precipitation
chances will persist under a series of upper level shortwaves.
Temperatures will gradually fall through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Showers will persist through the weekend in a general northerly
flow. High pressure will build over the western Aleutians Sunday
into Monday leading to calm conditions. Gusty winds out of bays
and passes may occur Sunday between Unalaska and Adak between
relatively strong high and low pressure.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...

Bering/Aleutians

Light northerly flow continues across the central/eastern
Bering/Aleutians on Monday. Winds flip to southerly and increase
to small craft levels for the western Aleutians late Monday due to
an approaching Kamchatka low. Early Tuesday, southeasterly flow
ramps up to gale force across the western Bering/Aleutians along
with widespread rainfall. This wind/rain spreads into the central
Bering/Aleutians by mid to late Tuesday. Early Wednesday, the
Kamchatka low migrates towards the western Bering, with westerly
small craft/low end gale force winds expected across the western
and central portions of the Bering/Aleutians, while eastern areas
see southerly winds pick up to near gale force along with
plentiful rain. By late Wednesday the low in the western Bering
weakens with winds transitioning to westerly and falling back to
small craft levels.

Gulf of Alaska

On Monday, a weakening low will be parked over Prince William
Sound early, with this storm system quickly heading interior and
diminishing by late Monday. As a result, southwesterly gale force
winds early on Monday, across the Gulf, should diminish below
small craft advisory levels by the afternoon/evening hours.
Generally light westerly flow then takes over for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast pattern remains progressive through the
work week. The next storm to impact the Gulf of Alaska will lift
from the Pacific into Sunday/Monday. This will again bring
unsettled weather to Kodiak, but will mainly spare much of
Mainland Alaska. The forecast track continues to shift east,
sparing much of Prince William Sound and Seward from the past week
of rains. A barrier jet is likely to impact the coast during that
time, as winds turn offshore by Monday. Across the Bering, a
transient ridge will slide east through Wednesday. The next Bering
low will slide across the Kamchatka Peninsula and move SE towards
Bristol Bay by Friday. This storm track leaves a very low
potential for coastal issues through this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130 139
Gale Warning 120 131 132 138
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS/BG