Gale Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

801 
FZAK61 PAFC 091226
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 AM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-100200-
326 AM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front associated with a 981 mb low at 54N 153W enters the 
southern Gulf by Thu afternoon. This low exits the southeastern 
Gulf at 985 mb by Fri morning. A 982 mb low develops along the 
front at 55N 144W by Thu afternoon then exits the southeast Gulf 
at 995 mb by Fri afternoon. A 1008 mb low develops at 57N 156W 
Fri afternoon then moves to 57N 151W at 1010 mb by Sat morning.

$$

PKZ351-100200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
326 AM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-100200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
326 AM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

132 
FZAK61 PAFC 100054
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-101400-
354 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front dissipates over the North Gulf Coast for Fri afternoon. 
High pressure moves across the Gulf by Sat morning. A 1008 mb low
forms at 57N 157W on Fri night and exits the Southeast Gulf at 
1005 mb Sat afternoon. Its front stretches across the Gulf through
Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-101400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
354 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming E up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ352-101400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
354 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
While there has been little overall change in the upper and lower
level pattern over the Southern Mainland over the past 24 hours,
there are subtle changes occurring that will have later impacts
across the region. First, the deep arctic upper level low centered
over the Tanana Valley/Alaska Range the last 5 or so days is now
beginning to shift southeast as a closed ridge over the North
Slope of Alaska is forcing more of a due northerly flow aloft,
which is effectively "kicking" out this upper low. The low level
flow along the coast remains offshore, and this will just increase
as this upper level arctic low shifts southeast across the North
Gulf Coast today and tonight. Otherwise, Southcentral remains
firmly under the control of bitterly cold temperatures as all
locations remain below average. Fog is also continuing to plague
parts of Cook Inlet, including Anchorage, where substantial rime
ice is beginning to coat trees and other surfaces.

Out west, quiet and cold weather continues to dominate as cold
offshore northeast winds increase in response to a warm front
moving northeast across the southwest Bering Sea/Aleutian Chain.
This cold offshore flow is supporting another bout of cold wind
chills as values are dropping to 40-50 below this morning across
parts of Southwest Alaska. Finally, over the Bering Sea, a pattern
change is underway as yet another gale force warm front is moving
into the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in excellent agreement with the large scale synoptic
pattern heading into the weekend. They are also coming into better
agreement with the rapidly deepening low moving into the Gulf of
Alaska as a triple point along a front Thursday and Thursday
night. The trend in the models is to shift this low southward,
which makes sense given the very impressive cold arctic air
currently over the Gulf. Snow is still likely for Kodiak, although
amounts will be much less than what some models showed over the
last two days. Over the Bering, models are in remarkably good
agreement with the current low over the area, as well as the next
storm force low moving in Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR to LIFR visibilities and/or ceilings are expected to
continue into Thursday. There may be breaks where the fog and
stratus move out and it clears out for long periods of time.
Forecast confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Gap winds due to cold air over the mainland and tight pressure
gradients along the Gulf coast will continue until the high
arctic pressure inland can break down. Strongest winds will
continue for Passage Canal, Resurrection Bay, Valdez coastal
waters, Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta. A Wind Chill
Advisory is in effect for Thompson Pass as wind chills may drop to
45 below zero through noon Friday.

The next area of low pressure Thursday is on track to propagate
further south than originally anticipated. Kodiak Island will
still see some snow accumulation with a preceding front, but it's
looking like less accumulation with the low. Thus, have lowered
total snow accumulations for Thursday.

Due to the farther south track of the aforementioned low (as well
as other features transiting the region), temperatures across
Southcentral are not expected to warm up as fast as previously
advertised. Temperatures look to remain mostly sub-zero into the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Arctic remains firmly entrenched at the moment, though fronts
moving in from the Bering Sea over the next few days will lead to
a gradual warming of temperatures. In the meantime, wind chill
advisories remain in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol
Bay through this afternoon. An approaching warm front will then
lead to rising temperatures this afternoon while winds strengthen
ahead of the front. As the front arrives tonight into Thursday,
coastal areas are likely to see snow, with warmer areas along the
Alaska Peninsula resulting in a transition from snow to rain. The
next system will move into the region on Friday afternoon, which
will track farther inland across Greater Bristol Bay and the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley through Saturday morning. Precipitation across
the mainland will bring another round of snowfall, while areas
farther south across the Alaska Peninsula could see a mix of rain
and snow. Temperatures will continue to rise throughout the week,
bringing most of Southwest into the positive (above zero) values
by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A front stretched from the central Aleutians to the western
Bering this morning will strengthen as it lifts northward through
the afternoon. This front will bring max gale force winds, with
possible gusts to storm force wind speeds. This system will exit
into the northern Bering through Thursday, diminishing winds to
small craft advisory level across much of the Bering. The next
North Pacific low will cross over the central Aleutians Thursday
afternoon, which will bring another round of warming temperatures,
rain, and an areas of storm force winds to the region. These
conditions will remain across much of the forecast area through
Saturday as the associated low center moves north of Shemya.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...
A storm in the western Bering Sea has a front that drapes across
the Bering Sea to the Alaska Peninsula on Friday. This storm will
track from St Lawrence Island to Nunivak Island Sunday. The main
impact is gale and storm force winds associated with this storm.
Gales in advance of the front with Gale and storm force wind south
of the low as it traverses across the Bering Sea offshore zones.
The gale and storm force wind should drop off south of the low
through the day Sunday.

A strong storm is exiting the southeast Gulf of Alaska Friday.
North to northwest wind wrapping around the backside of this low
should be below gale force Friday. Wind in the Gulf of Alaska and
along the coast of Gulf of Alaska will remain below gale force
Friday through Sunday with the exception of the Copper River
Delta. The Delta may still have gale force wind blowing out of it
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Friday through Tuesday)...
The models are on track with a pattern shift toward this weekend.
A large surface and upper level low will move across the Bering
Sea to the northeast Bering Sea by Sunday. The low then weakens to
a trough aloft as it rapidly moves across northern Alaska through
Monday. This will result in dramatic warming across southwest
Alaska through the weekend as temperatures rise to the 20s to near
30 above. South central Alaska will also see temperatures warm
through the weekend to the teens and 20s. The exception is in the
Copper River Basin where the cold air appears to be firmly
entrenched, and the coldest air will move over the area. Some of
the model guidance is forecasting low temperatures to as low as
-60 F for Gulkana Saturday and Sunday night. This is significantly
colder than what has been in most of the model solutions up to
this point. If this big of a temperature difference does form
between the Copper River Basin and Gulf of Alaska, we could see
very strong gap wind through the Chugach Mountains that would impact
Prince William Sound and the Copper River Delta.

A surface low will form along the front of this Bering low near
Kodiak Island or the Gulf of Alaska Thursday. Here the models
have not come into good agreement and the difference in the
location of the low, while small, has a significant difference in
the sensible weather, in particular for Kodiak Island. If the low
is further south and east, Kodiak could get little if any snow or
a mix of rain and snow, or if the low is closer to Kodiak, there
could be 4 to 10 inches of snow. This will bear watching through
the week.

Another upper trough follows behind this trough Monday and will
extend south across the Alaska Peninsula into the north Pacific. A
surface low will likely form in the base of this trough south of
Kodiak Island Monday night or Tuesday morning. This will primarily
impact the Gulf of Alaska offshore region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121. Wind Chill Advisory 131.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 121 126 127 129 139 140
								      160 179 180 185.
         Gale Warning 121 127 129 130 132 150 160 170 173 174
                      175 176 177 178 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...SA