Brisk Wind Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

907 
FZAK52 PAFC 100053
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101345-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 965 mb low 365 nm south of Shemya moves to 275 nm north of Attu
at 948 mb Fri night and continues to 500 nm north of Attu at 963 
mb by Sat afternoon. Its front pushes across the Aleutians and 
Bering into the Alaska Peninsula through Sat afternoon. A 1004 mb 
north Pacific low moves with the front to 60 nm Southwest of Dutch
Harbor at 1006 mb for Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas building to 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 20 kt
becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101345-
Bristol Bay-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.  Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W after midnight.  Snow.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ165-101345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E...SE wind 15 kt shifting
to SW. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
Rain and widespread snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
building to 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101345-
Unalaska Bay-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas building to 16 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas building to 26 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
29 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101345-
Adak to Kiska-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft Bering side...25 ft Pacific 
side. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101345-
Kiska to Attu-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming NW 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind to 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 6 ft. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Widespread snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight.  Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt.
.MON...W wind 15 kt.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-101345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

741 
FZAK52 PAFC 101220
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110100-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 mb 120 nm east of Shemya moves to 295 nm north of Shemya Sat
morning at 950 mb then to 320 nm west of Gambell at 971 mb by Sun
morning. Its front pushes across the Aleutians and Bering into 
the Alaska Peninsula through Sat afternoon. A 1006 mb North 
Pacific low moves to 75 nm south of Dutch Harbor at 1007 mb Sat 
afternoon then to 30 nm south of Chignik at 1013 mb by Sun 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-110100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, 
SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, W wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110100-
Bristol Bay-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas in 
ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas in ice 
free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, SW wind 15 kt 
becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110100-
Unalaska Bay-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 29 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110100-
Adak to Kiska-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas  23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110100-
Kiska to Attu-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-110100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
320 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of
Saint Matthew Island. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Freezing spray north of Saint
Matthew Island. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Freezing spray north of Saint Matthew Island in the
morning. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A deep 500 mb closed low over the southeastern Alaskan mainland
is allowing for weak flow in the upper-levels over the Copper
River Basin. Upper-level flow remains stronger across Bristol Bay
and the Gulf of Alaska as 500 mb height gradients remain steepest
in this region. Upper- level ridging is moving across the Bering
towards the Kuskokwim Delta today. An occluded front is moving
across the ALeutians into the southern Bering Sea. Water vapor
imagery shows a well defined area of low pressure near 49N 177E
moving northeastward toward the western Aleutians/Bering.
Middleton radar shows snow showers associated with a weak polar
low moving southeastward in the central Gulf. Observations across
Thompson Pass, the Lowe River Valley, Port of Valdez and Prince
William Sound show gusty conditions from the localized funneling
of northeasterly winds associated with the aforementioned off-
shore polar low. Gusty conditions are also observed throughout the
greater Seward area including Resurrection Bay due to the
localized funneling of northerly winds. A large thermal gradient
exists across the AKPEN as southerly flow brings above freezing
temperatures across the Aleutians and western AKPEN. Observations
across the AKPEN from late this morning ranged between -18F at
King Salmon to 37F in Cold Bay. The warmest temperatures are
located in the western Aleutians with Adak and Atka.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement at this time with respect to the
overall synoptic pattern. All models have similar solutions over
the next 84hrs with respect to the low pressure system southwest
of the Aleutians. Guidance also remains consistent with the
predominant storm track remaining far to the south as high
pressure remains in place across the Alaska mainland. The NAMNest
was favored for the wind forecast across the Copper Delta, Mat-Su
Valley and Prince William Sound as this model resolved the current
mesoscale conditions the better than the rest of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog will be in and out overnight again. Increasing
northerly winds tomorrow give the hope that there will be less fog
around by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold air continues to pile up in the Copper River Basin. While
there are minimal disturbances in the upper levels, this cold air
will continue to "drain" through the usual gaps and passes along
the northern Gulf coast. This will allow for continued gusts
through the Valdez coastal waters, Thompson Pass, and the Copper
River Delta. Gusty northerly winds will also persist through
Passage Canal and Resurrection Bay. By Thursday night, the
Matanuska Valley will likely see gusty northeasterly winds through
the usual gaps as the pressure gradient strengthens. With
increased winds and cold temperatures still in place, a Wind Chill
Advisory remains in effect for Thompson Pass where wind chills
may drop to 50 below zero at times through noon on Friday.

The next low moving across the Gulf Thursday still looks to be
tracking farther south, and minimal changes to the forecast were
made regarding this feature. However as the pressure gradient
tightens along the northern Gulf coast on Friday, gap flow is
expected to increase again, especially through the Valdez coastal
waters and Copper River Delta through Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A pair of lows moving through the western Bering, will help bring
warmer air to southwest Alaska over the next few days. This will
occur as each system sends an attendant front in the occlusion
process (essentially when the cold front catches up to the warm
front, and the two fronts merge, before weakening). The first such
front is approaching the coast now, with both the Bethel and King
Salmon radars showing the leading edge of snowfall approaching.
This snow will precede the front as some warmer and more moist air
aloft is thrown over this feature (over-running setup), with some
of this warming mixing down to the surface over the next 24
hours. This front will stall by Thursday afternoon from a Hooper
Bay to King Salmon line, as the frontolysis (the weakening of a
front) takes hold due to it out-running its better upper level
support.

This will be short-lived though, as yet another front pushes into
the region on Friday. Like its predecessor, it too will be
accompanied by a band of snow, with this front also maintaining
its integrity longer, reaching a Sleetmute to Homer line by
Saturday before the front once again dissolves. The net affect
will be a couple periods of snowfall followed by a gradual warming
trend over the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A pair of low pressure systems, and their attendant fronts, will
affect all of the Bering Sea and Aleutians over the next few days.
The first storm is an elongated area of low pressure, with two
lows both around ~972 mb, moving through the western Aleutians.
The attendant front stretched from this low through the western
Bering, before bisecting the Pribilof Islands and Alaska
Peninsula. Snow and sustained gales will precede this front as it
continues to lift north, with waves in the 15 to 20 feet range
expected.

Conditions will briefly subside following the frontal passage,
before another low moves into the area. This next low will be
located just east of Shemya Friday morning, as it deepens to ~961
mb, before reaching the western Bering by evening while having
deepened further to less than 950 mb. As this storm wraps us,
sustained storm force winds will precede the surface front, while
also developing just south of the low center itself, as dry
advection helps mix down the colder air aloft. Given a long fetch
length, waves will push 40 feet along the front across the western
Bering, with 20 to 35 feet likely for the western Aleutians.
Further east, look for waves to peak at about 15 feet east of the
Pribilof Islands and Dutch Harbor, as these locations will be
further removed from the stronger winds/best dynamics.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...
A storm in the far Western Bering will bring some storm force
winds through the central and western Aleutians on Saturday. By
Sunday, these winds will have mostly weakened overall and any
storm level winds will remain in the far western Bering. Overall,
winds across the Bering sea will be from the south or southeast
through the period, reducing the risk for ice moving southward and
freezing spray. but these winds will progressively weaken through
the weekend.

Strong north to northwesterly winds will continue across the Gulf
of Alaska through Monday. These winds will be strongest in the
gaps and may reach gale force at times.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sat through Wed)...
Yesterday's long term forecast mentioned a low moving across the
Bering Sea, bringing warmer temperatures to the mainland through
the weekend. Today, the forecast models are indicating that
although the low is still forecast to move across the Bering Sea,
the high currently in place over the mainland remains strong, so
the warm up won't be as dramatic as we thought yesterday. However,
by Sunday, we do have some warmer 850 hPa temperatures moving in,
which will help moderate the cold air mass. The front that moves
across the Bering will bring some upper level clouds with it, so
that will also help moderate the temperatures at the surface.
These factors lead me to believe that the record cold temperatures
for the Copper River Basin mentioned in yesterday's discussion
are pretty unlikely. Realistically we can expect daytime highs
above 0F for most of Southcentral, with the Copper River Basin
reaching near -10F and a low of the lower -30s. West of the
Alaska Range, the warmer temperatures will have much more of an
effect, with temperatures in Southwest Alaska warming into the
mid 20s in some places. The front will also bring a chance of
snow for Southwest and the lower Kuskokwim Valley on Saturday.

After Saturday, the next low to move through skirts the Aleutians
and then progresses across the Gulf of Alaska. This is not a big
weathermaker for most of Alaska, with the main concern being
outflow winds along the coast. Folks living near northerly
oriented valleys should be prepared for a windy start to the
weekend, but these will decrease as we head into early next week.
On Tuesday and Wednesday a front moves into the western Aleutians,
but again, this has been delayed slightly from yesterday's
forecast due to the strength of the high over the eastern half of
the state. For the most part, it looks like a quiet start to next
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121.
 Wind Chill Advisory 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning 176 177.
 Gale Warning 127 130 132 160 170 172>175 178>180 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 119>121 126 127 129 139 140 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED/EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF