Gale Warning 46, NWS Anchorage, AK

856 
FZAK51 PAFC 100101
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101400-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front dissipates over the North Gulf Coast for Fri afternoon. 
High pressure moves across the Gulf by Sat morning. A 1008 mb low
forms 95 nm West of Sitkinak on Fri night and exits the Southeast
Gulf at 1005 mb Sat afternoon. Its front stretches across the 
Gulf through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-101400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. 
Freezing spray. Gusts up to 45 kt near the Copper River Delta. Heavy
freezing spray near the Copper River Delta. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Gusts up to 50 kt 
near the Copper River Delta. Heavy freezing spray near the Copper 
River Delta.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Gusts up to 
40 kt near the Copper River Delta. Heavy freezing spray near the 
Copper River Delta.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-101400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt becoming variable 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-101400-
Resurrection Bay-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft...highest seas S of Caines Head. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-101400-
Prince William Sound-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-101400-
Port Valdez-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 6 
ft...except 4 ft near the Port. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts up to 55 kt in the morning, diminishing
to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft...except 4 ft near the Port.
Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft...except 4 ft near the Port. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-101400-
Valdez Narrows-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 45 kt. Gusts up to 55 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-101400-
Valdez Arm-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY..

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-101400-
Passage Canal-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up
to 40 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt near Whittier in the morning. 
Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-101400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-101400-
Barren Islands East-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 9 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-101400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, E wind 15 kt. Seas 
12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-101400-
Chiniak Bay-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-101400-
Marmot Bay-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-101400-
Shelikof Strait-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-101400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-101400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
Patchy freezing fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
Patchy freezing fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-101400-
Kachemak Bay-
401 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A deep 500 mb closed low over the southeastern Alaskan mainland
is allowing for weak flow in the upper-levels over the Copper
River Basin. Upper-level flow remains stronger across Bristol Bay
and the Gulf of Alaska as 500 mb height gradients remain steepest
in this region. Upper- level ridging is moving across the Bering
towards the Kuskokwim Delta today. An occluded front is moving
across the ALeutians into the southern Bering Sea. Water vapor
imagery shows a well defined area of low pressure near 49N 177E
moving northeastward toward the western Aleutians/Bering.
Middleton radar shows snow showers associated with a weak polar
low moving southeastward in the central Gulf. Observations across
Thompson Pass, the Lowe River Valley, Port of Valdez and Prince
William Sound show gusty conditions from the localized funneling
of northeasterly winds associated with the aforementioned off-
shore polar low. Gusty conditions are also observed throughout the
greater Seward area including Resurrection Bay due to the
localized funneling of northerly winds. A large thermal gradient
exists across the AKPEN as southerly flow brings above freezing
temperatures across the Aleutians and western AKPEN. Observations
across the AKPEN from late this morning ranged between -18F at
King Salmon to 37F in Cold Bay. The warmest temperatures are
located in the western Aleutians with Adak and Atka.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement at this time with respect to the
overall synoptic pattern. All models have similar solutions over
the next 84hrs with respect to the low pressure system southwest
of the Aleutians. Guidance also remains consistent with the
predominant storm track remaining far to the south as high
pressure remains in place across the Alaska mainland. The NAMNest
was favored for the wind forecast across the Copper Delta, Mat-Su
Valley and Prince William Sound as this model resolved the current
mesoscale conditions the better than the rest of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog will be in and out overnight again. Increasing
northerly winds tomorrow give the hope that there will be less fog
around by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold air continues to pile up in the Copper River Basin. While
there are minimal disturbances in the upper levels, this cold air
will continue to "drain" through the usual gaps and passes along
the northern Gulf coast. This will allow for continued gusts
through the Valdez coastal waters, Thompson Pass, and the Copper
River Delta. Gusty northerly winds will also persist through
Passage Canal and Resurrection Bay. By Thursday night, the
Matanuska Valley will likely see gusty northeasterly winds through
the usual gaps as the pressure gradient strengthens. With
increased winds and cold temperatures still in place, a Wind Chill
Advisory remains in effect for Thompson Pass where wind chills
may drop to 50 below zero at times through noon on Friday.

The next low moving across the Gulf Thursday still looks to be
tracking farther south, and minimal changes to the forecast were
made regarding this feature. However as the pressure gradient
tightens along the northern Gulf coast on Friday, gap flow is
expected to increase again, especially through the Valdez coastal
waters and Copper River Delta through Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A pair of lows moving through the western Bering, will help bring
warmer air to southwest Alaska over the next few days. This will
occur as each system sends an attendant front in the occlusion
process (essentially when the cold front catches up to the warm
front, and the two fronts merge, before weakening). The first such
front is approaching the coast now, with both the Bethel and King
Salmon radars showing the leading edge of snowfall approaching.
This snow will precede the front as some warmer and more moist air
aloft is thrown over this feature (over-running setup), with some
of this warming mixing down to the surface over the next 24
hours. This front will stall by Thursday afternoon from a Hooper
Bay to King Salmon line, as the frontolysis (the weakening of a
front) takes hold due to it out-running its better upper level
support.

This will be short-lived though, as yet another front pushes into
the region on Friday. Like its predecessor, it too will be
accompanied by a band of snow, with this front also maintaining
its integrity longer, reaching a Sleetmute to Homer line by
Saturday before the front once again dissolves. The net affect
will be a couple periods of snowfall followed by a gradual warming
trend over the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A pair of low pressure systems, and their attendant fronts, will
affect all of the Bering Sea and Aleutians over the next few days.
The first storm is an elongated area of low pressure, with two
lows both around ~972 mb, moving through the western Aleutians.
The attendant front stretched from this low through the western
Bering, before bisecting the Pribilof Islands and Alaska
Peninsula. Snow and sustained gales will precede this front as it
continues to lift north, with waves in the 15 to 20 feet range
expected.

Conditions will briefly subside following the frontal passage,
before another low moves into the area. This next low will be
located just east of Shemya Friday morning, as it deepens to ~961
mb, before reaching the western Bering by evening while having
deepened further to less than 950 mb. As this storm wraps us,
sustained storm force winds will precede the surface front, while
also developing just south of the low center itself, as dry
advection helps mix down the colder air aloft. Given a long fetch
length, waves will push 40 feet along the front across the western
Bering, with 20 to 35 feet likely for the western Aleutians.
Further east, look for waves to peak at about 15 feet east of the
Pribilof Islands and Dutch Harbor, as these locations will be
further removed from the stronger winds/best dynamics.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...
A storm in the far Western Bering will bring some storm force
winds through the central and western Aleutians on Saturday. By
Sunday, these winds will have mostly weakened overall and any
storm level winds will remain in the far western Bering. Overall,
winds across the Bering sea will be from the south or southeast
through the period, reducing the risk for ice moving southward and
freezing spray. but these winds will progressively weaken through
the weekend.

Strong north to northwesterly winds will continue across the Gulf
of Alaska through Monday. These winds will be strongest in the
gaps and may reach gale force at times.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sat through Wed)...
Yesterday's long term forecast mentioned a low moving across the
Bering Sea, bringing warmer temperatures to the mainland through
the weekend. Today, the forecast models are indicating that
although the low is still forecast to move across the Bering Sea,
the high currently in place over the mainland remains strong, so
the warm up won't be as dramatic as we thought yesterday. However,
by Sunday, we do have some warmer 850 hPa temperatures moving in,
which will help moderate the cold air mass. The front that moves
across the Bering will bring some upper level clouds with it, so
that will also help moderate the temperatures at the surface.
These factors lead me to believe that the record cold temperatures
for the Copper River Basin mentioned in yesterday's discussion
are pretty unlikely. Realistically we can expect daytime highs
above 0F for most of Southcentral, with the Copper River Basin
reaching near -10F and a low of the lower -30s. West of the
Alaska Range, the warmer temperatures will have much more of an
effect, with temperatures in Southwest Alaska warming into the
mid 20s in some places. The front will also bring a chance of
snow for Southwest and the lower Kuskokwim Valley on Saturday.

After Saturday, the next low to move through skirts the Aleutians
and then progresses across the Gulf of Alaska. This is not a big
weathermaker for most of Alaska, with the main concern being
outflow winds along the coast. Folks living near northerly
oriented valleys should be prepared for a windy start to the
weekend, but these will decrease as we head into early next week.
On Tuesday and Wednesday a front moves into the western Aleutians,
but again, this has been delayed slightly from yesterday's
forecast due to the strength of the high over the eastern half of
the state. For the most part, it looks like a quiet start to next
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121.
 Wind Chill Advisory 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning 176 177.
 Gale Warning 127 130 132 160 170 172>175 178>180 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 119>121 126 127 129 139 140 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED/EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF