Storm Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

485 
FZAK62 PAFC 100041
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-101430-
341 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low at 47N 174E moves to 57N 173E at 948 mb Fri night 
and continues to 60N 175E at 963 mb by Sat afternoon. Its front 
pushes across the Aleutians and Bering into the Alaska Peninsula 
through Sat afternoon. A 1004 mb North Pacific low moves with the 
front to 53N 168W at 1006 mb for Sat afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-101430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Snow and rain 
showers.
.SAT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 34 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-101430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S to E wind increasing to 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-101430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S to E wind increasing to 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-101430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

939 
FZAK62 PAFC 101219
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
319 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110215-
319 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 mb at 54N 176E moves to 58N 173E Sat morning at 950 mb then
to 62N 177E at 971 mb by Sun morning. Its front pushes across the
Aleutians and Bering into the Alaska Peninsula through Sat 
afternoon. A 1006 mb North Pacific low moves to 53N 166W at 1007 
mb Sat afternoon then to 56N 159W at 1013 mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-110215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
319 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
319 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
319 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
319 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

256 
FZAK62 PAFC 110031
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111415-
331 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 mb low at 57N 174E moves to 58N 173E at 952 mb Sat
morning then continues to 65N 179W at 985 mb for Sun afternoon.
Its front pushes across the Bering and Alaska Peninsula into
Western Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-111415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
331 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
331 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
331 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
331 PM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Snow.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A deep 500 mb closed low over the southeastern Alaskan mainland
is allowing for weak flow in the upper-levels over the Copper
River Basin. Upper-level flow remains stronger across Bristol Bay
and the Gulf of Alaska as 500 mb height gradients remain steepest
in this region. Upper- level ridging is moving across the Bering
towards the Kuskokwim Delta today. An occluded front is moving
across the ALeutians into the southern Bering Sea. Water vapor
imagery shows a well defined area of low pressure near 49N 177E
moving northeastward toward the western Aleutians/Bering.
Middleton radar shows snow showers associated with a weak polar
low moving southeastward in the central Gulf. Observations across
Thompson Pass, the Lowe River Valley, Port of Valdez and Prince
William Sound show gusty conditions from the localized funneling
of northeasterly winds associated with the aforementioned off-
shore polar low. Gusty conditions are also observed throughout the
greater Seward area including Resurrection Bay due to the
localized funneling of northerly winds. A large thermal gradient
exists across the AKPEN as southerly flow brings above freezing
temperatures across the Aleutians and western AKPEN. Observations
across the AKPEN from late this morning ranged between -18F at
King Salmon to 37F in Cold Bay. The warmest temperatures are
located in the western Aleutians with Adak and Atka.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement at this time with respect to the
overall synoptic pattern. All models have similar solutions over
the next 84hrs with respect to the low pressure system southwest
of the Aleutians. Guidance also remains consistent with the
predominant storm track remaining far to the south as high
pressure remains in place across the Alaska mainland. The NAMNest
was favored for the wind forecast across the Copper Delta, Mat-Su
Valley and Prince William Sound as this model resolved the current
mesoscale conditions the better than the rest of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog will be in and out overnight again. Increasing
northerly winds tomorrow give the hope that there will be less fog
around by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold air continues to pile up in the Copper River Basin. While
there are minimal disturbances in the upper levels, this cold air
will continue to "drain" through the usual gaps and passes along
the northern Gulf coast. This will allow for continued gusts
through the Valdez coastal waters, Thompson Pass, and the Copper
River Delta. Gusty northerly winds will also persist through
Passage Canal and Resurrection Bay. By Thursday night, the
Matanuska Valley will likely see gusty northeasterly winds through
the usual gaps as the pressure gradient strengthens. With
increased winds and cold temperatures still in place, a Wind Chill
Advisory remains in effect for Thompson Pass where wind chills
may drop to 50 below zero at times through noon on Friday.

The next low moving across the Gulf Thursday still looks to be
tracking farther south, and minimal changes to the forecast were
made regarding this feature. However as the pressure gradient
tightens along the northern Gulf coast on Friday, gap flow is
expected to increase again, especially through the Valdez coastal
waters and Copper River Delta through Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A pair of lows moving through the western Bering, will help bring
warmer air to southwest Alaska over the next few days. This will
occur as each system sends an attendant front in the occlusion
process (essentially when the cold front catches up to the warm
front, and the two fronts merge, before weakening). The first such
front is approaching the coast now, with both the Bethel and King
Salmon radars showing the leading edge of snowfall approaching.
This snow will precede the front as some warmer and more moist air
aloft is thrown over this feature (over-running setup), with some
of this warming mixing down to the surface over the next 24
hours. This front will stall by Thursday afternoon from a Hooper
Bay to King Salmon line, as the frontolysis (the weakening of a
front) takes hold due to it out-running its better upper level
support.

This will be short-lived though, as yet another front pushes into
the region on Friday. Like its predecessor, it too will be
accompanied by a band of snow, with this front also maintaining
its integrity longer, reaching a Sleetmute to Homer line by
Saturday before the front once again dissolves. The net affect
will be a couple periods of snowfall followed by a gradual warming
trend over the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A pair of low pressure systems, and their attendant fronts, will
affect all of the Bering Sea and Aleutians over the next few days.
The first storm is an elongated area of low pressure, with two
lows both around ~972 mb, moving through the western Aleutians.
The attendant front stretched from this low through the western
Bering, before bisecting the Pribilof Islands and Alaska
Peninsula. Snow and sustained gales will precede this front as it
continues to lift north, with waves in the 15 to 20 feet range
expected.

Conditions will briefly subside following the frontal passage,
before another low moves into the area. This next low will be
located just east of Shemya Friday morning, as it deepens to ~961
mb, before reaching the western Bering by evening while having
deepened further to less than 950 mb. As this storm wraps us,
sustained storm force winds will precede the surface front, while
also developing just south of the low center itself, as dry
advection helps mix down the colder air aloft. Given a long fetch
length, waves will push 40 feet along the front across the western
Bering, with 20 to 35 feet likely for the western Aleutians.
Further east, look for waves to peak at about 15 feet east of the
Pribilof Islands and Dutch Harbor, as these locations will be
further removed from the stronger winds/best dynamics.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...
A storm in the far Western Bering will bring some storm force
winds through the central and western Aleutians on Saturday. By
Sunday, these winds will have mostly weakened overall and any
storm level winds will remain in the far western Bering. Overall,
winds across the Bering sea will be from the south or southeast
through the period, reducing the risk for ice moving southward and
freezing spray. but these winds will progressively weaken through
the weekend.

Strong north to northwesterly winds will continue across the Gulf
of Alaska through Monday. These winds will be strongest in the
gaps and may reach gale force at times.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sat through Wed)...
Yesterday's long term forecast mentioned a low moving across the
Bering Sea, bringing warmer temperatures to the mainland through
the weekend. Today, the forecast models are indicating that
although the low is still forecast to move across the Bering Sea,
the high currently in place over the mainland remains strong, so
the warm up won't be as dramatic as we thought yesterday. However,
by Sunday, we do have some warmer 850 hPa temperatures moving in,
which will help moderate the cold air mass. The front that moves
across the Bering will bring some upper level clouds with it, so
that will also help moderate the temperatures at the surface.
These factors lead me to believe that the record cold temperatures
for the Copper River Basin mentioned in yesterday's discussion
are pretty unlikely. Realistically we can expect daytime highs
above 0F for most of Southcentral, with the Copper River Basin
reaching near -10F and a low of the lower -30s. West of the
Alaska Range, the warmer temperatures will have much more of an
effect, with temperatures in Southwest Alaska warming into the
mid 20s in some places. The front will also bring a chance of
snow for Southwest and the lower Kuskokwim Valley on Saturday.

After Saturday, the next low to move through skirts the Aleutians
and then progresses across the Gulf of Alaska. This is not a big
weathermaker for most of Alaska, with the main concern being
outflow winds along the coast. Folks living near northerly
oriented valleys should be prepared for a windy start to the
weekend, but these will decrease as we head into early next week.
On Tuesday and Wednesday a front moves into the western Aleutians,
but again, this has been delayed slightly from yesterday's
forecast due to the strength of the high over the eastern half of
the state. For the most part, it looks like a quiet start to next
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121.
 Wind Chill Advisory 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning 176 177.
 Gale Warning 127 130 132 160 170 172>175 178>180 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 119>121 126 127 129 139 140 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED/EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF