Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Latest convective trends and CAM solutions indicate strong
thunderstorm complex will move into northeast Oklahoma during the
04-06Z time frame. IFR conditions will be likely in the stronger
storms with restricted visibility due to heavy rainfall. A few
storms may linger across far northeast Oklahoma early Sunday
morning, otherwise, VFR conditions expected into the day Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern is convective and heavy rain potential
tonight given the delicate hydrologic situation across the region.
Another concern will be severe weather and heavy rain potential
Tuesday into Wednesday with the next storm system and front.

Current surface analysis has the dryline near the NM-TX border
with a synoptic front arcing from western KS northeast into IA.
The outflow boundary from last night's storms has lifted north and
consolidated with the synoptic front. Storms have developed over
the TX Panhandle near the focusing boundaries and there is some
hints that some storms may form over western OK as well per latest
radar and CAM data. Storms will eventually evolve into one or
more clusters and move northeast across KS and OK tonight. The
main uncertainty is the intensity as it moves into eastern OK
tonight. Recent trends of the HRRR have suggested a weakening MCS
moving into the region, though the latest run at 19Z has reversed
that trend, showing a stronger complex with some damaging wind
potential arriving after midnight tonight. The forecast will hedge
between the two solutions. Confidence in this scenario isn't
high, since our area will be so far away from initiation and it
will be well into the night before they arrive. Nevertheless, if
the stronger solution verifies, there will also be a flash flood
threat since the heavier rains could potentially fall on areas
that have been hit hard over the past week. Therefore, a flash
flood watch will be maintained thru tonight.

Much of the day Sunday looks quiet with some convective potential
remaining mainly to our north and well to the west. There again is
some potential for an MCS to graze NE OK by Sunday night. This
proverbial faucet will shut off briefly Monday and Monday night
as mid level ridging builds over the Plains ahead of an
approaching western CONUS upper trough.

A strong shortwave trough, especially this far south at this time
of year, will be ejecting into the Plains on Tuesday.
Strengthening flow aloft over the warm sector ahead of the dryline
suggests supercells with very large hail and tornadoes possible
across central and possibly into eastern OK. At some point, storms
will organize into one or more clusters or complexes and evolve
into a damaging wind and flood threat Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This additional rainfall will only exacerbate the
ongoing hydrologic situation across the region. Storm/heavy rain
potential should shift south of the hardest hit areas Wednesday
and Wednesday night with the front and end by Thursday.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ054>061-064.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....12

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