Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
914 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Area of showers and storms moving from north central Oklahoma into
northeast Oklahoma this evening. Most unstable environment at
this time for severe weather is to the northwest of I-44. Heaviest
rain is also expected across these areas, and will be subject to
quick onset flash flooding.

Main update elements to the forecast was to raise pops across
northeast Oklahoma, and to add severe watch 247. Storms are
expected to weaken late tonight along with decreasing areal
coverage.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>061-064.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
940 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
940 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma,especially northwest of I 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are moving into northeast Oklahoma this evening, with
some storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind.
Storms are expected to undergo a weakening trend as they move east
later tonight, thus the greatest severe weather potential will
remain northwest of I-44. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected,
especially locations northwest of Interstate 44 and likely will
result localized, quick-onset flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential
       ...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday across parts of
northeast Oklahoma, but overall storm coverage looks to be lower.
A strong upper level storm system will move across the central
Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. Organized thunderstorm activity with
this system will have the potential for significant severe
weather and flooding threat.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
928 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

OKZ054-260300-
Osage OK-
928 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

At 927 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles north of Chilocco to near Ponca City. Movement
was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Southern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Apperson...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9653 3680 9652 3668 9706 3669 9706
      3670 9703 3670 9698 3672 9692 3675 9689
      3675 9687 3674 9683 3677 9682 3677 9679
      3678 9679 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 263DEG 38KT 3702 9706 3670 9706