Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
914 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Area of showers and storms moving from north central Oklahoma into
northeast Oklahoma this evening. Most unstable environment at
this time for severe weather is to the northwest of I-44. Heaviest
rain is also expected across these areas, and will be subject to
quick onset flash flooding.

Main update elements to the forecast was to raise pops across
northeast Oklahoma, and to add severe watch 247. Storms are
expected to weaken late tonight along with decreasing areal
coverage.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>061-064.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
448 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
448 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have developed across the Texas panhandle and
western Oklahoma again this afternoon This activity will move east
into mainly northeast Oklahoma by mid to late evening. A few
storms later this evening may be severe, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threat. Storms are expected to
undergo a weakening trend as they move east, thus the greatest
severe weather potential will remain northwest of I-44. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be possible with the storms across
northeast Oklahoma, and this may result in some localized, quick-
onset flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential
       ...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday across parts of
northeast Oklahoma, but overall storm coverage looks to be lower.
A strong upper level storm system will move across the central
Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. Organized thunderstorm activity with
this system will have the potential for significant severe
weather and flooding threat.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.