Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight at
the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites. A squall
line will then sweep through the area Tuesday morning into early
afternoon. Mainly MVFR to low VFR conditions will prevail, with
some lower conditions in storms. All sites will become VFR later
Tuesday afternoon through the end of the forecast period. LLWS
will continue at KFSM through mid morning Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 856 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Large complex of storms continues generally along and north of
I-44 at this time, with a potentially significant flash flooding
threat developing as individual cells continue to train along and
north of the outflow boundary as it slowly pushes south. OUN
soundings from 21z and from 00z did show strengthening subsidence
layer in the mid levels likely resulting from the large MCS, which
has largely inhibited convection in the warm sector through the
evening. A recent uptick in coverage has occurred however and
given still-favorable sever weather parameters, the threat of
severe storms is by no means over. Later tonight a complex of
storms is still expected to form over west Texas and eventually
lift northeast into eastern OK roughly y09-12z, and into western
AR Tuesday morning. This line of storms will pose a damaging wind
and QLCS tornado threat.

Main forecast updates were to adjust POP and QPF forecast as
areas of NE OK and possibly extreme NW AR could see 3-5 inch rain
amounts. Lesser amounts anticipated to the south but rainfall
rates should support at least a limited flooding threat and thus
the Flash Flood Warning will be maintained.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur at the northeast
Oklahoma sites overnight, with more isolated convection elsewhere.
A squall line will then sweep through the area Tuesday morning
into early afternoon. Mainly MVFR to low VFR conditions will
prevail, with some lower conditions in storms. All sites will
become VFR later Tuesday afternoon. LLWS will be mentioned at KFSM
overnight into Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

A few strong tornadoes possible this afternoon/evening...
Significant flash flooding likely across NE OK into tonight...

DISCUSSION...
Warm front currently located near a Drumright, Bixby, Inola line.
Elevated strong convection continues north of the front with
mainly a large hail/heavy rainfall threat. Atmosphere is very
unstable along and south of boundary and a few isolated supercells
are still expected to develop near warm front and/or south in the
warm sector. All modes of severe weather are possible, including
a few strong tornadoes. In addition, very heavy rainfall expected
in the stronger storms overnight with a significant flooding
threat, especially north of I-44 and west of highway 75. Numerous
rivers are forecast to go into flood based on the forecast
rainfall amounts expected through Tuesday across the northern
basins.

Thunderstorms over western/central Oklahoma should become more
linear with time overnight, moving into eastern Oklahoma late
tonight. Very strong low level wind fields are expected and QLCS
tornadoes and damaging downburst winds will remain possible. The
severe threat will likely persist as convective line pushes east
into far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day
Tuesday with additional surface heating. The main thunderstorm
line is forecast to move east of northwest Arkansas by mid
afternoon with the severe threat ending.

Strong upper high will build over the southeast CONUS mid to late
week. Short waves embedded in stronger southwest flow aloft will
continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the
best chance remaining over northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ054>074.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

AVIATION.....05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1042 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Mainly East Central Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of I-44 and North of I-40 .

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered severe storms will continue especially southeast of
I-44 and north of I-40. Conditions continue to support the threat
for all modes of severe weather through early Tuesday morning. A
brief lull in severe weather is possible toward the early morning
hours on Tuesday, however a line of storms is expected to re-
intensify while spreading eastward. This line of storms is likely
to move into eastern Oklahoma after 3 AM with potential for
leading edge tornadoes and locally damaging winds.

Significant flooding is likely to develop through tonight,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Flash flooding
will develop quickly due to the saturated soils, and there remains
potential for life threatening flooding across portions of
northeast Oklahoma where recent excessive rains have fallen.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning as the
line of storms advances eastward. The risk for tornadoes and
locally damaging winds will continue. Any additional heavy
rainfall will further worsen any ongoing flooding. Flooded
roadways are likely to remain an issue for several days as waters
will be slow to recede. Thunderstorm chances continue through the
week, however an organized severe weather threat is not apparent
at this time.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Weather warnings highlighting significant severe and flooding potential
are likely through the night. The severe weather risk will remain
present through Tuesday morning.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N MOUNDS              35.91N 96.06W
05/21/2019                   CREEK              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WEST 181ST STREET JUST EAST OF ALT HIGHWAY 75 NORTH OF
            MOUNDS IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TORNADO          6 N BALD HILL           35.83N 95.84W
05/20/2019                   OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A TORNADO. DEBRIS WAS OBSERVED
            IN THE ASSOCIATED RADAR DATA.

&&

SFP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

OKZ064-065-210600-
Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
1232 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CREEK AND
NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1232 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast
of Davenport, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Depew...                          Welty...
Milfay...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 189.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3584 9662 3594 9648 3564 9628 3556 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 236DEG 30KT 3564 9672

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE LIBERTY            35.84N 95.95W
05/21/2019                   OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HECTORVILLE ROAD AND 230 ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

KAH

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