Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
856 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Large complex of storms continues generally along and north of
I-44 at this time, with a potentially significant flash flooding
threat developing as individual cells continue to train along and
north of the outflow boundary as it slowly pushes south. OUN
soundings from 21z and from 00z did show strengthening subsidence
layer in the mid levels likely resulting from the large MCS, which
has largely inhibited convection in the warm sector through the
evening. A recent uptick in coverage has occurred however and
given still-favorable sever weather parameters, the threat of
severe storms is by no means over. Later tonight a complex of
storms is still expected to form over west Texas and eventually
lift northeast into eastern OK roughly y09-12z, and into western
AR Tuesday morning. This line of storms will pose a damaging wind
and QLCS tornado threat.

Main forecast updates were to adjust POP and QPF forecast as
areas of NE OK and possibly extreme NW AR could see 3-5 inch rain
amounts. Lesser amounts anticipated to the south but rainfall
rates should support at least a limited flooding threat and thus
the Flash Flood Warning will be maintained.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur at the northeast
Oklahoma sites overnight, with more isolated convection elsewhere.
A squall line will then sweep through the area Tuesday morning
into early afternoon. Mainly MVFR to low VFR conditions will
prevail, with some lower conditions in storms. All sites will
become VFR later Tuesday afternoon. LLWS will be mentioned at KFSM
overnight into Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

.A few strong tornadoes possible this afternoon/evening...
.Significant flash flooding likely across NE OK into tonight...

DISCUSSION...
Warm front currently located near a Drumright, Bixby, Inola line.
Elevated strong convection continues north of the front with
mainly a large hail/heavy rainfall threat. Atmosphere is very
unstable along and south of boundary and a few isolated supercells
are still expected to develop near warm front and/or south in the
warm sector. All modes of severe weather are possible, including
a few strong tornadoes. In addition, very heavy rainfall expected
in the stronger storms overnight with a significant flooding
threat, especially north of I-44 and west of highway 75. Numerous
rivers are forecast to go into flood based on the forecast
rainfall amounts expected through Tuesday across the northern
basins.

Thunderstorms over western/central Oklahoma should become more
linear with time overnight, moving into eastern Oklahoma late
tonight. Very strong low level wind fields are expected and QLCS
tornadoes and damaging downburst winds will remain possible. The
severe threat will likely persist as convective line pushes east
into far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day
Tuesday with additional surface heating. The main thunderstorm
line is forecast to move east of northwest Arkansas by mid
afternoon with the severe threat ending.

Strong upper high will build over the southeast CONUS mid to late
week. Short waves embedded in stronger southwest flow aloft will
continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the
best chance remaining over northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  63  88 / 100  80  10  20
FSM   68  79  62  90 /  40  90  10  20
MLC   72  83  65  86 /  60  80  10  20
BVO   65  82  58  83 / 100  80  10  20
FYV   68  72  59  84 /  50  90  10  20
BYV   66  75  61  86 /  60  90  10  10
MKO   68  79  61  88 /  60  80  10  20
MIO   68  77  61  85 / 100  80  10  20
F10   69  82  63  85 /  60  80  10  20
HHW   69  79  65  86 /  30  80  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OKZ054>074.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...Significant Severe Weather Likely Including Strong Tornadoes...
...Life Threatening Flooding Possible This Evening and Overnight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...West of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...North of I-40 .

DISCUSSION...
Conditions remain favorable for significant severe weather
including the potential for strong or violent tornadoes and
damaging winds. Supercell storms have developed across western and
central Oklahoma this afternoon, and these storms will build into
eastern Oklahoma early this evening. These storms may interact
with a stationary boundary from near Miami to Pawnee in northeast
Oklahoma, which will enhance the tornadic potential. The risk of
supercells will continue into the evening hours and possibly
spread eastward through western Arkansas. A brief lull in severe
weather is possible toward the early morning hours on Tuesday,
however a line of storms is expected to re-intensify while
spreading eastward. This line of storms is likely to move into
eastern Oklahoma after 3 AM with potential for leading edge
tornadoes and locally damaging winds.

Significant flooding is likely to develop through tonight,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Flash flooding
will develop quickly due to the saturated soils, and there remains
potential for life threatening flooding across portions of
northeast Oklahoma where recent excessive rains have fallen.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning as the
line of storms advances eastward. The risk for tornadoes and
locally damaging winds will continue. Any additional heavy
rainfall will further worsen any ongoing flooding. Flooded
roadways are likely to remain an issue for several days as waters
will be slow to recede. Thunderstorm chances continue through the
week, however an organized severe weather threat is not apparent
at this time.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Weather warnings highlighting significant severe potential
are likely this evening. The severe weather risk will remain
present through Tuesday morning.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
923 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW COLLINSVILLE       36.40N 95.88W
05/20/2019                   TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEMORIAL DRIVE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20, NORTHWEST OF
            COLLINSVILLE IS IMPASSABLE. OVER A FOOT OF WATER OVER THE
            ROADWAY AND FLOWING SWIFTLY, AND RISING RAPIDLY.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPERRY                  36.30N 95.99W
05/20/2019                   TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING ON OSAGE DRIVE FROM 96TH ST N TO 106TH ST
            N IN SPERRY.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
946 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SKIATOOK                36.37N 96.00W
05/20/2019                   OSAGE              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            FLOODING NEAR PERRIER DRIVE AND TALL CHEIF STREET. WATER
            HAS GOTTEN INTO OCCUPIED STRUCTURES.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NOWATA                  36.70N 95.64W
05/20/2019                   NOWATA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 169 CLOSED IN NOWATA FROM 19TH TO 21ST STREET DUE
            TO HIGH WATER.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1023 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             VERDIGRIS               36.23N 95.69W
05/20/2019  E1.00 INCH       ROGERS             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL OBSERVED VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 66 AND HIGHWAY 266.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1029 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
05/20/2019                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR FLOODING IN PRYOR ON HIGHWAY 69, AND ON GRAHAM AVE
            EAST OF HIGHWAY 69.

&&

JDS