Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
405 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A major flooding event is ongoing across northeast Oklahoma early
this morning, and this will only be exacerbated by the final wave
of precipitation which is now beginning to spread into the far
western part of our forecast area. This final wave will sweep
across the entire forecast area this morning into early afternoon.
A damaging wind threat will exist with the leading edge of this
complex, and an isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out,
especially within the undisturbed warm sector. Will maintain the
flash flood watch for today as is.

Skies will clear later this afternoon and early evening, but the
quiet weather will not last long. Scattered convection is likely
to redevelop as early as Wednesday afternoon as low level moisture
surges back north across the area. A warm and humid airmass will
then reside over the area for the rest of the forecast period
under persistent southwest flow aloft. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will exist each day through at least Sunday, especially
across northeast Oklahoma, where additional rainfall is not
needed.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  57  85  71 / 100  10  20  30
FSM   78  59  88  72 / 100  10  20  20
MLC   78  60  87  73 / 100   0  20  20
BVO   76  53  84  69 / 100  10  20  30
FYV   73  57  84  67 / 100  10  20  20
BYV   76  58  86  68 / 100  10  10  20
MKO   77  59  86  71 / 100  10  20  20
MIO   72  57  84  69 / 100  10  20  30
F10   78  59  85  71 / 100   0  30  20
HHW   77  60  88  73 / 100   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ054>074.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
515 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...Severe Storms Possible This Morning and Afternoon...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing eastern Oklahoma...late morning for northwest
    Arkansas.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing eastern Oklahoma...late morning for northwest
    Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing eastern Oklahoma...late morning for northwest
    Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Oklahoma
was moving into eastern Oklahoma early this morning. Locally
damaging winds gusts and leading edge tornadoes will be possible
early across eastern Oklahoma, with the threat shifting farther
east into far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas later this
morning.

Widespread flooding and flash flooding is ongoing this morning
across much of northeast Oklahoma. Additional heavy rainfall will
occur this morning and into the afternoon, which will further
worsen the flooding situation.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue this week mainly across parts
of northeast Oklahoma. Organized severe weather does not appear
likely however.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
717 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     HAIL             2 WSW FOYIL             36.42N 95.55W
05/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       ROGERS             OK   PUBLIC

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
721 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HAIL             CLAREMORE               36.31N 95.62W
05/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       ROGERS             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 1 INCH HAIL NORTH OF CLAREMORE NEAR
            HIGHWAY 88 AND 420 RD.

0635 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
05/21/2019                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DAMAGE AT NEWTON AND ST. LOUIS ST IN TULSA. POLICE AND
            FIRE ON SCENE. PICTURES RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0657 AM     HAIL             1 NNW CLAREMORE         36.33N 95.62W
05/21/2019  E0.88 INCH       ROGERS             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER OBSERVED 1 INCH HAIL FALLING NEAR BLUESTARR DRIVE
            IN CLAREMORE. HAIL LASTED 2 MINUTES.

0652 AM     TORNADO          OWASSO                  36.27N 95.85W
05/21/2019                   TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NEAR
            TCC/TULSA TECH NEAR 106TH STREET AND HIGHWAY 169.

0637 AM     TORNADO          TULSA INTERNATIONAL AIR 36.21N 95.90W
05/21/2019                   TULSA              OK   OTHER FEDERAL

            RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR TULSA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
            TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE NOTED IN RADAR DATA.

0635 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
05/21/2019                   TULSA              OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TULSA FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS THAT LARGE TREE IS DOWN
            BLOCKING NEWTON STREET NEAR N. ST. LOUIS STREET. RECEIVED
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
725 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N BIXBY               36.00N 95.88W
05/21/2019  E60.00 MPH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 60 MPH WIND GUSTS NORTH OF BIXBY.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
736 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
05/21/2019                   TULSA              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TULSA POLICE DEPT REPORTED MAN TRAPPED IN A HOUSE NEAR ST
            LOUIS/NEWTON IN TULSA. ROADS ARE BLOCKED BY DEBRIS AND
            TREES. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
747 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 AM     FLOOD            1 W VINITA              36.64N 95.17W
05/21/2019                   CRAIG              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 69 AND HIGHWAY 60 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
748 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TORNADO          SAPULPA                 36.00N 96.11W
05/21/2019                   CREEK              OK   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT 6 AM ON HIGHWAY
            97 NEXT TO 71 STREET IN SAPULPA. PICTURES RECEIVED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SJC