Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
305 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible ahead of a cold front through this evening.
An isolated strong or severe storm remains possible near the
coast. However, locally heavy rain will remain the greatest
threat. A colder and drier airmass will move into the area this
tonight as the front moves east of the area and continues through
Thursday as high pressure builds into the area. /13

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A cold and
dry pattern continues through the end of the week as an area of
high pressure moves across the area. Highs will be in the low to
mid 50s. Thursday night will feature lows in the low 30s inland
to mid and upper 30s along the coast. Colder Friday night as high
pressure settles over the area, with mid and upper 20s inland to
mid 30s along the coast. Saturday night's lows will be in the mid
and upper 30s. /13

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The dry period will persist
through Monday as a strong surface high pressure area continues
across the region. The GFS and ECMWF models both still develop a
weak surface low pressure area over the southern Gulf of Mexico by
the end of the weekend that moves east into the early part of
next week. With ridging still over our area and with this weak low
passing so far to the south, still looking at precipitation
chances continuing near zero through Monday. The next chance of
light rain showers looks to be on Tuesday ahead of the next system
that will be approaching from the west. Yet another shot of cold
air is expected to follow this front for the middle of next week.
/13

&&

.MARINE...Strong southerly winds switch to the northwest late this
afternoon into this evening as a strong cold front moves through,
with frequent gusts to gale force over much of the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will also be likely ahead and along the front with a
few strong to severe thunderstorms possible.  The offshore flow
gradually subsides to a light northerly flow by Friday. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      36  53  34  55  31  57  37  62 /  80   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pensacola   40  53  38  55  34  55  40  61 /  90   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Destin      44  54  41  55  37  55  43  60 / 100   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Evergreen   37  51  32  53  27  56  34  62 / 100   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  32  51  31  50  26  55  33  61 /  70   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Camden      35  49  32  48  26  54  34  60 /  90   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Crestview   40  52  33  55  28  55  33  61 / 100   0   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for ALZ054>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

     Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ631-632-650-655-
     670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
759 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-241400-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
759 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight to marginal risk for severe weather across the
forecast area today. The greatest risk for severe weather will be
over the coastal counties of Alabama stretching east over parts of
northwest Florida and west over parts of southeast Mississippi.
Damaging straight line winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes will
be possible with some of the stronger storms.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-241400-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
759 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight to marginal risk for severe weather across the
forecast area today. The greatest risk for severe weather will be
over the coastal counties of Alabama stretching east over parts of
northwest Florida and west over parts of southeast Mississippi.
Damaging straight line winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes will
be possible with some of the stronger storms.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GMZ630-241400-
Northern Mobile Bay-
759 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675-241400-
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
759 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ633>636-241400-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
759 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous conditions for small craft mainly Thursday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
236 PM CST WED JAN 23 2019

ALZ052-053-261-232130-
Clarke AL-Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-
236 PM CST WED JAN 23 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CST...

At 235 PM CST, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of Chatom to near Deer Park to 9 miles
northeast of Lucedale, and moving east at 30 mph.

Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Citronelle, Wagarville, Leroy, Gulfcrest, Deer Park, Tibbie,
Mount Vernon, Calvert, McIntosh and Movico.

LAT...LON 3162 8761 3125 8784 3115 8792 3116 8793
      3094 8808 3093 8842 3111 8843 3118 8837
      3149 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 261DEG 25KT 3144 8814 3120 8829 3100 8846

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
251 PM CST WED JAN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RURAL                   31.87N 87.74W
01/23/2019                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER RURAL RD, DUMMY LINE RD, AND
            GATES DR IN THOMASVILLE PER EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT.

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CST WED JAN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE COFFEEVILLE       31.77N 88.09W
01/23/2019                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER JIM YORK RD, ALABAMA HIGHWAY 154
            AND HIGHWAY 69 N IN COFFEEVILLE.

&&

BB

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