Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS St. Louis, MO

270 
WWUS53 KLSX 302127
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
427 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

MOC071-099-189-302215-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-190830T2215Z/
Jefferson MO-Franklin MO-St. Louis MO-
427 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ST. LOUIS COUNTIES...

At 426 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Dittmer, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Chesterfield, Wildwood, Ballwin, Manchester, Creve Coeur, Town and
Country, Union, Eureka, Ellisville, Des Peres, Pacific, Valley Park,
Pevely, St. Clair, Fenton, Byrnes Mill, Clarkson Valley, Gray Summit,
Villa Ridge and High Ridge.

This also includes Route 66 State Park, Castlewood State Park, Sandy
Creek Covered Bridge Historic Site, and Robertsville State Park.
 
This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 240 and 274.
 Interstate 55 in Missouri near exit 180.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 9093 3843 9103 3869 9049 3828 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 251DEG 27KT 3839 9076 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Britt

757 
WWUS53 KLSX 302144
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
444 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

MOC071-099-189-302215-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-190830T2215Z/
Jefferson MO-Franklin MO-St. Louis MO-
444 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ST. LOUIS COUNTIES...

At 444 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Byrnes Mill,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Chesterfield, Wildwood, Ballwin, Manchester, Creve Coeur, Town and
Country, Union, Eureka, Ellisville, Des Peres, Pacific, Valley Park,
Pevely, St. Clair, Fenton, Byrnes Mill, Clarkson Valley, Gray Summit,
Villa Ridge and High Ridge.

This also includes Route 66 State Park, Castlewood State Park, Sandy
Creek Covered Bridge Historic Site, and Robertsville State Park.
 
This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 240 and 274.
 Interstate 55 in Missouri near exit 180.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 9093 3843 9103 3869 9049 3828 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 250DEG 23KT 3842 9065 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Britt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
317 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

A low amplitude NW flow pattern is continues over the central CONUS.
The main item of interest currently is a MCV over central MO that is
tracking very slowly east-southeastward and is carrying with it an
area of showers with isolated thunderstorms around it.  New
convection is developing to the south of the MCV where the air has
destabilized.  A synoptic cold front extended from southern Indiana
to just south of Saint Louis City into southwest Missouri.
Temperatures ranged from the 60s behind the front to the mid 80s
ahead of the front.

The latest model guidance tracks the MCV east-southeast through the
forecast area into southern IL, not fully exiting until between 06-
12z/Sat late tonight.  The MCV will be accompanied by rich moisture
through the column of just under 2" PWs along with warm cloud depths
of close to 4km.  The slow movement of the MCV should ultimately
favor localized heavy rainfall potential, especially if it can be
tied to thunderstorms.  This supports high PoPs and an elevated risk
for flooding rainfall through early this evening, with this risk
decreasing through the night as thunderstorm potential markedly goes
down.  Speaking of, a risk for severe weather is also possible,
especially for areas south and east of STL metro where higher
dewpoints and surface based convection can be initiated but it
appears this window for severe storms rapidly closes around sunset
or just before.  Damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible
through early this evening are the main threats.

After tonight, rain chances look to linger but should be much more
spotty as the cold front pushes further south and any additional
disturbances have less moisture/instability to work with to initiate
rain.  Gradually reduced PoPs on Saturday and into early Sunday
morning leading to what should be a dry day finally on Sunday in
response to rising heights from the southwest CONUS upper RIDGE.

Max temps on Saturday will range from the 70s north/west of STL
metro to the low 80s south/east.  Min temps tonight and Saturday
night are expected to be in the 60s.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Drier weather should finally be seen on Sunday in response to rising
H500 heights and surface high pressure in control.  High temps on
Sunday will be warmer without any real displacement of airmasses
because of what should be sunnier skies and no rain, with readings
peaking in the 80s.

A bit of a pattern change is then expected Monday and Tuesday as the
upper RIDGE over the southwestern CONUS strengthens and extends its
influence towards our region as southerly flow gets going again at
the surface.  Look for a pair of very warm and mainly dry days.
Humidity levels should be in check, though, and keep heat index
values below 100F most places, save around 100F in STL metro on
Tuesday afternoon.

A surface cold front looks set to move through on Tuesday night
with a brief chance for showers and thunderstorms with a cool high
pressure moving in for Wednesday through Friday dropping temps back
to normal or slightly below normal levels.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Area of rain with some imbedded TSRA over central MO is expected
to grow this afternoon as it heads east and should affect the STL
metro site TAFs by 20z. Best chances for thunder will be on the
SE flank of this area of rain with thunder chances really falling
off either on the NW half of the anticipated pcpn area or after
sundown this evening. Rain chances themselves should really drop
by midnight for the STL metro site TAFs as lower CIGs advance into
KCOU. For now, have kept the non-VFR CIGs confined to just KCOU,
and even have conditions deteriorating to IFR before sunrise
Saturday morning there. Otherwise, NE surface winds will veer
gradually to E by Saturday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-312100-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
340 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected into this evening mainly for
areas south and southeast of Saint Louis City, including portions of
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. A few strong to severe
storms are possible, with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes. Additionally, some of the storms may produce locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Sunday morning.

The chance for thunderstorms returns Tuesday night north of
Interstate 70 in association with a cold front dropping through.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed until early this evening for areas
around the Saint Louis metro area as well as southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             SULLIVAN                38.22N 91.16W
08/30/2019  E0.70 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME-SIZED HAIL COVERING GROUND WITH 40MPH
            WIND GUSTS.

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SULLIVAN                38.22N 91.16W
08/30/2019                   FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FOUR FOOT DIAMETER TREE SNAPPED.

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E SULLIVAN            38.21N 91.15W
08/30/2019                   FRANKLIN           MO   PUBLIC

            TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED; ROOF BLOWN OFF.

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             1 E SULLIVAN            38.21N 91.15W
08/30/2019  U2.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM MPING: HEN EGG (2.00 IN.).

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             SULLIVAN                38.22N 91.17W
08/30/2019  E2.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             3 NE STANTON            38.31N 91.07W
08/30/2019  U1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

JPG