Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS St. Louis, MO

407 
WWUS53 KLSX 302042
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
342 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

MOC055-221-302050-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-190830T2115Z/
Crawford MO-Washington MO-
342 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area.  Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3841 9136 3874 9082 3821 9078 3820 9132
      3834 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 243DEG 21KT 3826 9112 

$$

MOC071-183-219-302115-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-190830T2115Z/
St. Charles MO-Franklin MO-Warren MO-
342 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN
COUNTIES...

At 340 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Miramiguoa
Park, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.  Ping pong sized hail and 60 mph 
         winds were reported in Sullivan at 331 pm.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Union, Sullivan, St. Clair, Gray Summit, Villa Ridge,
Gerald, New Melle, Parkway, Augusta, Miramiguoa Park, Beaufort,
Dutzow, Lonedell, Leslie, Noser Mill, Japan, Stanton, Lyon and
Robertsville.

This also includes Robertsville State Park and Meramec State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 225 and 253.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 9136 3874 9082 3821 9078 3820 9132
      3834 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 243DEG 21KT 3826 9112 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Britt

383 
WWUS53 KLSX 302058
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
358 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

MOC071-183-219-302115-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-190830T2115Z/
St. Charles MO-Franklin MO-Warren MO-
358 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN
COUNTIES...

At 356 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Parkway, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.  Up to 2 inch diameter hail was 
         reported in Sullivan with this storm.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Union, Sullivan, St. Clair, Gray Summit, Villa Ridge,
Gerald, New Melle, Parkway, Augusta, Miramiguoa Park, Beaufort,
Dutzow, Lonedell, Leslie, Noser Mill, Japan, Stanton, Lyon and
Robertsville.

This also includes Robertsville State Park and Meramec State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 225 and 253.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 9136 3874 9082 3821 9078 3820 9132
      3834 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 248DEG 24KT 3831 9102 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Britt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
317 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

A low amplitude NW flow pattern is continues over the central CONUS.
The main item of interest currently is a MCV over central MO that is
tracking very slowly east-southeastward and is carrying with it an
area of showers with isolated thunderstorms around it.  New
convection is developing to the south of the MCV where the air has
destabilized.  A synoptic cold front extended from southern Indiana
to just south of Saint Louis City into southwest Missouri.
Temperatures ranged from the 60s behind the front to the mid 80s
ahead of the front.

The latest model guidance tracks the MCV east-southeast through the
forecast area into southern IL, not fully exiting until between 06-
12z/Sat late tonight.  The MCV will be accompanied by rich moisture
through the column of just under 2" PWs along with warm cloud depths
of close to 4km.  The slow movement of the MCV should ultimately
favor localized heavy rainfall potential, especially if it can be
tied to thunderstorms.  This supports high PoPs and an elevated risk
for flooding rainfall through early this evening, with this risk
decreasing through the night as thunderstorm potential markedly goes
down.  Speaking of, a risk for severe weather is also possible,
especially for areas south and east of STL metro where higher
dewpoints and surface based convection can be initiated but it
appears this window for severe storms rapidly closes around sunset
or just before.  Damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible
through early this evening are the main threats.

After tonight, rain chances look to linger but should be much more
spotty as the cold front pushes further south and any additional
disturbances have less moisture/instability to work with to initiate
rain.  Gradually reduced PoPs on Saturday and into early Sunday
morning leading to what should be a dry day finally on Sunday in
response to rising heights from the southwest CONUS upper RIDGE.

Max temps on Saturday will range from the 70s north/west of STL
metro to the low 80s south/east.  Min temps tonight and Saturday
night are expected to be in the 60s.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Drier weather should finally be seen on Sunday in response to rising
H500 heights and surface high pressure in control.  High temps on
Sunday will be warmer without any real displacement of airmasses
because of what should be sunnier skies and no rain, with readings
peaking in the 80s.

A bit of a pattern change is then expected Monday and Tuesday as the
upper RIDGE over the southwestern CONUS strengthens and extends its
influence towards our region as southerly flow gets going again at
the surface.  Look for a pair of very warm and mainly dry days.
Humidity levels should be in check, though, and keep heat index
values below 100F most places, save around 100F in STL metro on
Tuesday afternoon.

A surface cold front looks set to move through on Tuesday night
with a brief chance for showers and thunderstorms with a cool high
pressure moving in for Wednesday through Friday dropping temps back
to normal or slightly below normal levels.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Area of rain with some imbedded TSRA over central MO is expected
to grow this afternoon as it heads east and should affect the STL
metro site TAFs by 20z. Best chances for thunder will be on the
SE flank of this area of rain with thunder chances really falling
off either on the NW half of the anticipated pcpn area or after
sundown this evening. Rain chances themselves should really drop
by midnight for the STL metro site TAFs as lower CIGs advance into
KCOU. For now, have kept the non-VFR CIGs confined to just KCOU,
and even have conditions deteriorating to IFR before sunrise
Saturday morning there. Otherwise, NE surface winds will veer
gradually to E by Saturday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-311700-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected until early this evening mainly
for areas around the Saint Louis metro area as well as southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois, where a few strong to severe storms
are possible. Damaging winds are the primary severe threat, but
isolated weak tornadoes are also possible. Additionally, some of the
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed until early this evening for areas
around the Saint Louis metro area as well as southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois.

TES