Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS St. Louis, MO

475 
WWUS53 KLSX 302001
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
301 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

MOC055-071-073-302030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-190830T2030Z/
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
301 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 300 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Owensville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sullivan, Gerald, Beaufort, Leslie, Noser Mill, Japan, Stanton and
Oak Hill.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri near exit 230.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 9120 3829 9100 3811 9150 3815 9150
      3820 9151 3826 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 230DEG 21KT 3825 9138 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Britt

618 
WWUS53 KLSX 302013
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
313 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

MOC055-071-073-302030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-190830T2030Z/
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
313 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 312 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Gerald, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sullivan, Gerald, Beaufort, Leslie, Noser Mill, Japan, Stanton and
Oak Hill.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri near exit 230.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 9120 3829 9100 3813 9144 3816 9145
      3822 9146 3830 9148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 231DEG 21KT 3830 9131 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Britt

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Primary concern in the short term is convective trends today.  Most
short range guidance including the convective allowing models (CAMs)
move the northern end of the MCS currently over western Missouri
into central Missouri later this morning.  This is supported by the
mass fields on the RAP and GFS as the 850mb flow turns to the
southwest ahead of the MCV back over the eastern Plains.  The large
scale upper level flow is forecast to become more quasi-zonal today
which should allow the MCV to drift in a more easterly direction
rather than southeast.  The combination of low level moisture
convergence and lift from the MCV should maintain a threat of
convection through the afternoon and into the evening primarily
across central into east central and southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Additional lift from the surface cold front which should
slowly drift south to near the I-70 corridor by early evening will
help focus convection in the aforementioned areas. RAP is forecasting
2000-3000 J/Kg CAPE this afternoon at max heating in the vicinity of
the front...though deep layer shear in the pre-storm environment is
only 20-30kts.  Certainly can't rule out some strong or isolated
severe storms in that environment...but organized/widespread severe
weather seems unlikely.  Temperatures today will be greatly affected
by cloud cover and precipitation, but generally speaking should be
cooler than yesterday with highs only reaching the 70s across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois...low to
mid 80s further to the southeast.

Ongoing thunderstorms from this afternoon should weaken during the
evening after sunset, and the diminishment in activity should
continue through the evening as the MCV continues moving east, and
low level wind fields weaken.  The front is forecast to remain
nearly stationary tonight...and then drift back to the north on
Saturday.  Weak low level southerly flow will allow dew point
temperatures to increase south of the front back into the mid and
upper 60s, and the front will be a focus for additional convective
development Saturday afternoon.  Unsure at this time how widespread
the storms might be, so I stuck with chance PoPs for much of the
area long and north of I-70.

Carney

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Not a lot of changes from what has been talked previously. At the
beginning of the period, would expect a surface front and likely
residual outflow boundaries lingering across some portion of the
CWA. Aloft, a trof remains in place that should lift to the east
through the day on Sunday. Have kept PoPs through the day Sun,
albeit low during the day. The rain chances and clouds should help
keep temps cooler.

The upper ridge builds into the region on Mon, however, model solns
suggest the thermal ridge remaining further west. By Tues, deep SW
flow sets up across the region. Have trended warmer, but going
forecast may still be too cool. With a surface ridge extending
across the southern U.S. and somewhat deep mixing, dewpoints should
remain relatively cool, keeping heat index values around the century
mark or cooler.

Models still prog a cold front pushing through the region Tues night
into Wed. The threat for precip still looks low given the low
moisture available as mentioned above. However, have kept some low
PoPs for Tues night.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Area of rain with some imbedded TSRA over central MO is expected
to grow this afternoon as it heads east and should affect the STL
metro site TAFs by 20z. Best chances for thunder will be on the
SE flank of this area of rain with thunder chances really falling
off either on the NW half of the anticipated pcpn area or after
sundown this evening. Rain chances themselves should really drop
by midnight for the STL metro site TAFs as lower CIGs advance into
KCOU. For now, have kept the non-VFR CIGs confined to just KCOU,
and even have conditions deteriorating to IFR before sunrise
Saturday morning there. Otherwise, NE surface winds will veer
gradually to E by Saturday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-311700-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected until early this evening mainly
for areas around the Saint Louis metro area as well as southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois, where a few strong to severe storms
are possible. Damaging winds are the primary severe threat, but
isolated weak tornadoes are also possible. Additionally, some of the
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed until early this evening for areas
around the Saint Louis metro area as well as southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois.

TES