River Flood Warning 25, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
349 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers will taper off overnight as a cold front
moves east across the region. A dry but much colder airmass
will settle into the area on Friday. A low pressure system will
lift northeast across the Great Lakes Sunday, leading to a
warming trend and an increasing chance of showers by the second
half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Surface low now over southern Lake Michigan with the warm front
north of our area and the trailing cold front pushing into far
western Indiana. Widespread pcpn is continuing across about the
northwest half of our area with a pre frontal pseudo qlcs along
the I-71 corridor. Although the instability has been muted so
far, still tough to rule out an isolated severe threat with
this line as it moves across the southeast half of our fa over
the next few hours where the instability may be slightly
better.

The bigger concern heading into tonight will continue to be the
ongoing flooding as we will see widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms working east across the area into this evening.
Another 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts will be
possible along and south of the I-70 corridor into this evening.
The axis of heaviest rain will then shift into our southeast
before tapering off later tonight as the cold front moves east.

As we get into CAA on the back side of the front, winds will
increase and become westerly. Momentum transfer techniques from
the forecast soundings are suggesting wind gusts in the 30 to
35 knot range across our north and 25 to possibly 30 knot range
across our south. While this is below wind advisory criteria,
opted to go with a wind advisory across much of the area as
even sub advisory winds may be enough to knock down some trees
given the saturated soils.

Much colder air will filter into the area behind the front with
temperatures dropping below freezing from west to east
overnight. By morning temperatures will range from the mid teens
in the northwest to the mid 20s in the southeast. It looks like
the bulk of the pcpn should be out of our area by this time so
ptype should not be much of an issue. However, the rapidly
falling temperatures may lead to some flash freezing concerns
given the amount of rain that has fallen across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will begin to build into the region from the
northwest Friday into Friday night. With a drier airmass working
into the area, expect to see clearing skies through the day on
Friday. This will allow for some mixing with gusty winds
persisting through much of the day. Highs on Friday will range
from the lower 20s in the northwest to the lower 30s in the
southeast. Lows Friday night will range from the single digits
in the northwest to the mid teens in the southeast. The
combination of winds and temperatures will lead to single digit
wind chills Friday into Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday begins cold and dry in the wake of the late week shortwave
trough allowing a glancing blow of arctic air to move through the
Great Lakes with 1045+mb surface high pressure building through the
Great Lakes during the day. Wind chills will start the day near or
slightly below zero thanks to air temperatures in the teens and
upper single digits.  Plenty of sunshine is expected through the day
with a gradual increase in clouds as flow starts to increase on the
backside of the high.

Next disturbance to shift through the Ohio Valley on Sunday as
strong height falls dig down the west coast and eject energy out of
the deep western longwave trough through increasing wswly flow atop
the anomalous southeast CONUS subtropical ridge. Increasing warm
advection/isentropic ascent spreading precipitation chances in
through the day, especially the afternoon. Low level thermal
profiles will be critical during this time period - and guidance is
relatively stable over the last 24 hours that enough warming will
move into the Ohio River counties to allow snow-to-rain transition,
with areas further north remaining either all snow, or oscillate
from snow, to rain, and then back to snow as the thermal ribbon
oscillates/pivots across the heart of the ILN forecast area. SLRs
with this event don't appear to be especially favorable for any
significant accumulations even for those areas that remain all snow,
so for right now have indicated some light snow accumulations on
Sunday north of the Ohio River which can be refined as things become
more clear.

The aforementioned height falls eject out through Plains and into
the Upper Mississippi River Valley by Tuesday. The increasing warm
advection and persistent thermal boundary in the area will maintain
high precipitation chances across the southern half of the ILN CWA -
and while much of this should be rain - there is still critical
transition zone across the ILN CWA that suggests the northern fringe
of the precipitation may be snow or a rain/snow mix.  With boundary
layer temperatures largely in the low-mid 30s, again it appears
right now that any accumulations would be minor.

As the core of the strongest height falls move into the Great Lakes
on Tuesday/Tuesday night, strong warm advection should move all
precipitation phases to rain for the forecast area.

Strong cold advection and signature and subsidence on Wednesday,
with a notably drier signal in the models for this day.  Thus,
removed precipitation chances for Wednesday with highs in the 30s.
And this dry air will linger into Thursday, though there are some
subtle hints of a little light rain or snow per a few of the
ensemble members as a weak system moves through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front is lifting north across the area early this
afternoon. Along and north of the front, widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms are continuing. This activity will
continue to lift slowly north through mid afternoon, but
additional showers and storms will spread in from the west
ahead of an approaching cold front. As a result, will continue
with showers with an occasional thunderstorm at the TAF sites
through the first 6 hours or so of the TAF period. The
precipitation and thunder threat will drop off from the west as
the cold front moves through this evening. MVFR to IFR cigs and
vsbys will be possible into early evening. Gusty west winds of
30 to 35 knots will develop on the back side of the front this
evening and continue into the overnight hours. Vsbys will
improve as the pcpn ends and the winds start to pick up, but
MVFR cigs will likely linger into Friday morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>055-060>062.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Friday for
     OHZ063-070>072-077>080.
KY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ089>100.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Friday for
     KYZ089>098.
IN...Flood Watch through Friday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for
     INZ050-058-059.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Friday for
     INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Binau
AVIATION...JGL

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