River Flood Warning 18, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1007 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the region today and then
quickly be followed by a cold front this evening. This will keep
wet but unseasonably warm conditions in the area for one more
day. High pressure building in behind the cold front will bring
below normal temperatures but much drier weather for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fairly widespread dense fog was in place across the area this
morning. The visibilities have been gradually improving though
as the next round of rain has been moving northeast. Have
therefore just updated the SPS and tried to indicate that
conditions should be improving in the near term.

Surface low pressure is centered over Arkansas this morning with
a warm front extending northeast from it into the Ohio River
Valley. The surface low is forecast to deepen as it lifts
northeast across the western Great Lakes through late
afternoon/early evening. This will allow for the warm front to
push fairly quickly north across our area through early
afternoon with a trailing cold front then moving in from the
west through this evening. Ahead of the low, a strengthening
60+ knot 850 mb jet will pivot up across our area through this
afternoon. This will continue to pull an unseasonably warm and
moist airmass up across the region through the day. While
instability will be minimal with both surface based and mu capes
generally less than 250 J/KG, it will likely not take much to
get at least some embedded thunderstorms given the strong
forcing. This will result in a conditional severe threat
depending on the amount of instability. Low level wind fields
are fairly impressive so think we could get into a few hour
severe threat window late this afternoon into early evening,
until the cold front moves through. The main threat will be
damaging winds with a low end tornado threat, especially across
southwest portions of our fa. Also, given the saturated soil,
it will likely be possible to down some trees with sub severe
wind values.

Meanwhile, the flash flood/flood threat will remain a concern
into this evening. After yesterday's widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall, soils are saturated and the sub surface soil is
likely still frozen. This will lead to very rapid runoff with
any additional moderate to heavy rainfall. With PW values way
above normal and the possibility of embedded convective pcpn,
will have to keep a close eye on possible flooding as we
progress through the day and into the evening.

As the warm front lifts north today, temperatures will climb to
well above normal readings. Despite a relatively cool start
this morning, highs this afternoon should push well into the 60s
across much of the area with even some lower 70s possible
across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
High pressure will start to build into the region during the
day. Drier air advecting in will allow for clearing skies. Good
low level mixing will result in gusty winds continuing. This
combined with highs in the 20s to lower 30s will keep cold wind
chills in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions will be in place at the start of the long term.  Wind
gusts of 20 to 30 mph at the start of the long term will subside
through the night.  With the combination of the wind and cool
temperatures, a few wind chill values Friday night will be in the
negative single digits. High pressure with cool and dry conditions
will continue Saturday and Saturday night.

Another unsettled pattern develops beginning on Sunday.  Sunday
through Monday night precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow
near and south of the Ohio River and then is expected to be
primarily snow north of this area.  The initial wave of
precipitation moves through Sunday into Sunday night.  Precipitation
then pushes back northward on Monday into Monday night.  Some
snowfall accumulations are expected during the Sunday to Monday
night time frame.

Warmer air works into the region for Tuesday with high temperatures
in the 40s and 50s.  This will allow for precipitation to transition
over to all rain as another push of moisture works into the region.
A cold front will push through Tuesday night transitioning
precipitation over to snow showers.  Winds will pick up with the
cold front and wind gusts over 30 mph will be possible.

Another upper level disturbance will move through Wednesday into
Wednesday night keeping the chance for snow showers in the forecast.
 Models differ on the strength and placement of this disturbance and
therefore kept precipitation mention during the Wednesday into
Wednesday night time frame in the slight chance to chance
categories.  High pressure will shift just south of the region on
Thursday with a return to dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR ceilings at most locations will slowly lift but not get to
IFR until after 18Z. Variable visibilities are expected to
improve a bit faster as showers spread across the region during
the early part of the TAF period. Expect showers to move north
of the Cincinnati terminals for a while which would allow
ceilings to lift to MVFR. winds will be veering to south over
time with some increase in speed and perhaps even a few gusts.

A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a cold
front will sweep across the region between 21Z and 02Z. Very
heavy rain will result in IFR visibilities, likely more often
than not. Some showers may linger for an hour or two after the
front passes, but the big change will be in wind as they veer to
the west and strengthen considerably with gusts at or above 30
kt. Ceilings will become MVFR area wide. Winds will be slow to
diminish through the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will likely continue into Friday
morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Friday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
508 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-081015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
508 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Patchy dense fog will dissipate this morning as rain spreads in. A
few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
early this evening. Damaging wind gusts, either from straight line
winds or brief tornadoes is possible. After the precipitation ends,
strong gusty winds will occur overnight. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
850 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-071600-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown,
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville,
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada,
Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney,
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City,
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City,
Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek,
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster,
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason,
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro,
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
850 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...

Areas of fog persist across the region this morning. Patchy dense
spots will be observed where visibility is reduced to one quarter
mile or less. As rain spreads back into the area, there will be
some improvement in visibility.

Motorists should be prepared for rapid changes in visibility
this morning. Exercise extra caution and only use low beam
headlights.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST THU FEB 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     FLOOD            S IDAHO                 39.09N 83.14W
02/07/2019                   PIKE               OH   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

ALANR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
912 AM EST THU FEB 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLOOD            2 ENE RICHMOND DALE     39.21N 82.78W
02/07/2019                   ROSS               OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CONTINUED FLOODING, WEST JUNCTION ROAD NEAR SALT CREEK
            STILL FLOODED.

&&

JDR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1103 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-064-065-074-071815-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-
Hocking-
Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana,
Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus,
Newark, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, and Logan
1103 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...

Areas of fog will persist into early afternoon. Patchy dense
spots will be observed where visibility is reduced to one quarter
mile or less. As rain continues to spread back into the area,
there will be some improvement in visibility.

Motorists should be prepared for rapid changes in visibility
this morning. Exercise extra caution and only use low beam
headlights.