Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Wilmington, OH

206 
WGUS71 KILN 072205
FFSILN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
505 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

KYC037-OHC017-025-057-061-113-165-072215-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190208T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Campbell KY-Hamilton OH-Butler OH-Clermont OH-Warren OH-Greene OH-
Montgomery OH-
505 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CAMPBELL...HAMILTON...
BUTLER...CLERMONT...WARREN...WESTERN GREENE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended and rapid flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. However, lingering high water remains, as well as 
river flooding. So while the rapid flash flood threat has ended, 
there were still lingering road closures and high water.

Never attempt to drive through a flooded roadway.

Please report previous flash flooding to the National Weather Service
by going to our website at weather.gov/iln and submitting your report
via social media.

LAT...LON 3957 8481 3957 8448 3992 8448 3992 8416
      3991 8417 3988 8415 3988 8405 3985 8405
      3984 8394 3983 8393 3957 8396 3955 8398
      3898 8403 3904 8441 3912 8446 3907 8460
      3910 8468 3915 8474 3911 8482

$$

JDR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1248 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the region today and then
quickly be followed by a cold front this evening. This will keep
wet but unseasonably warm conditions in the area for one more
day. High pressure building in behind the cold front will bring
below normal temperatures but much drier weather for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fairly widespread dense fog was in place across the area this
morning. The visibilities have been gradually improving though
as the next round of rain has been moving northeast. Have
therefore just updated the SPS and tried to indicate that
conditions should be improving in the near term.

Surface low pressure is centered over Arkansas this morning with
a warm front extending northeast from it into the Ohio River
Valley. The surface low is forecast to deepen as it lifts
northeast across the western Great Lakes through late
afternoon/early evening. This will allow for the warm front to
push fairly quickly north across our area through early
afternoon with a trailing cold front then moving in from the
west through this evening. Ahead of the low, a strengthening
60+ knot 850 mb jet will pivot up across our area through this
afternoon. This will continue to pull an unseasonably warm and
moist airmass up across the region through the day. While
instability will be minimal with both surface based and mu capes
generally less than 250 J/KG, it will likely not take much to
get at least some embedded thunderstorms given the strong
forcing. This will result in a conditional severe threat
depending on the amount of instability. Low level wind fields
are fairly impressive so think we could get into a few hour
severe threat window late this afternoon into early evening,
until the cold front moves through. The main threat will be
damaging winds with a low end tornado threat, especially across
southwest portions of our fa. Also, given the saturated soil,
it will likely be possible to down some trees with sub severe
wind values.

Meanwhile, the flash flood/flood threat will remain a concern
into this evening. After yesterday's widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall, soils are saturated and the sub surface soil is
likely still frozen. This will lead to very rapid runoff with
any additional moderate to heavy rainfall. With PW values way
above normal and the possibility of embedded convective pcpn,
will have to keep a close eye on possible flooding as we
progress through the day and into the evening.

As the warm front lifts north today, temperatures will climb to
well above normal readings. Despite a relatively cool start
this morning, highs this afternoon should push well into the 60s
across much of the area with even some lower 70s possible
across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
High pressure will start to build into the region during the
day. Drier air advecting in will allow for clearing skies. Good
low level mixing will result in gusty winds continuing. This
combined with highs in the 20s to lower 30s will keep cold wind
chills in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions will be in place at the start of the long term.  Wind
gusts of 20 to 30 mph at the start of the long term will subside
through the night.  With the combination of the wind and cool
temperatures, a few wind chill values Friday night will be in the
negative single digits. High pressure with cool and dry conditions
will continue Saturday and Saturday night.

Another unsettled pattern develops beginning on Sunday.  Sunday
through Monday night precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow
near and south of the Ohio River and then is expected to be
primarily snow north of this area.  The initial wave of
precipitation moves through Sunday into Sunday night.  Precipitation
then pushes back northward on Monday into Monday night.  Some
snowfall accumulations are expected during the Sunday to Monday
night time frame.

Warmer air works into the region for Tuesday with high temperatures
in the 40s and 50s.  This will allow for precipitation to transition
over to all rain as another push of moisture works into the region.
A cold front will push through Tuesday night transitioning
precipitation over to snow showers.  Winds will pick up with the
cold front and wind gusts over 30 mph will be possible.

Another upper level disturbance will move through Wednesday into
Wednesday night keeping the chance for snow showers in the forecast.
 Models differ on the strength and placement of this disturbance and
therefore kept precipitation mention during the Wednesday into
Wednesday night time frame in the slight chance to chance
categories.  High pressure will shift just south of the region on
Thursday with a return to dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front is lifting north across the area early this
afternoon. Along and north of the front, widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms are continuing. This activity will
continue to lift slowly north through mid afternoon, but
additional showers and storms will spread in from the west
ahead of an approaching cold front. As a result, will continue
with showers with an occasional thunderstorm at the TAF sites
through the first 6 hours or so of the TAF period. The
precipitation and thunder threat will drop off from the west as
the cold front moves through this evening. MVFR to IFR cigs and
vsbys will be possible into early evening. Gusty west winds of
30 to 35 knots will develop on the back side of the front this
evening and continue into the overnight hours. Vsbys will
improve as the pcpn ends and the winds start to pick up, but
MVFR cigs will likely linger into Friday morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Friday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1234 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-081745-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1234 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
into early this evening. Damaging wind gusts, either from straight
line winds or brief tornadoes is possible. After the precipitation
ends, strong gusty winds will occur overnight. Wind gusts of 35 to 45
mph are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
120 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     FLOOD            AURORA                  39.07N 84.90W
02/07/2019                   DEARBORN           IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            US 50 WESTBOUND IN AURORA BLOCKED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
            REPORT RELAYED FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
123 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW AURORA            39.05N 84.96W
02/07/2019                   DEARBORN           IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER FLOWING RAPIDLY OVER LOWER DILLSBORO RD.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     FLOOD            1 N MORROW              39.36N 84.13W
02/07/2019                   WARREN             OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MASON MORROW MILGROVE RD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
135 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     FLOOD            3 SSW WAYNESVILLE       39.50N 84.10W
02/07/2019                   WARREN             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MIDDLETOWN RD AT THE COVERED BRIDGE IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     FLOOD            5 SSE LEBANON           39.36N 84.17W
02/07/2019                   WARREN             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STUBBS MILL RD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

CH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
147 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

INZ058-059-066-073-074-071930-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley IN-Dearborn IN-
147 PM EST THU FEB 7 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN AND RIPLEY
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA...DEARBORN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL 230 PM EST...

At 147 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Greensburg to 13 miles northwest of Osgood to
near North Vernon, moving east at 60 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Aurora, Brookville, Bright, Liberty, Versailles, Milan,
Osgood, Dillsboro, Oldenburg, Moores Hill, Lake Santee, Guilford,
Salem, Wilmington, Logan, Manchester, Blooming Grove, Sunman and
Metamora.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 170.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If these storms become
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3920 8544 3927 8530 3953 8530 3967 8483
      3933 8482 3903 8494 3900 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 256DEG 54KT 3934 8553 3921 8553 3905 8566

AR