Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

As of early this afternoon, the MCS that made its way southeast
across eastern Kansas this morning continues to push off into
southwest Missouri with a few lingering showers in far southeast
Kansas. Ahead of this feature, GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows a well defined outflow boundary extending from roughly
Harper County, KS and southeast into Northern Oklahoma north of
the Tulsa metro area. Increasing cumulus development was noted
along and just to the south of this outflow boundary in northern
Oklahoma.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening, as the remainder of the
elevated convection in southeast Kansas exits the forecast area, the
more stable air should dampen any chances of convection across most
areas. As the previous mesoscale discussion mentioned, however, with
increased/significant heating in the vicinity of the outflow
boundary in northern Oklahoma, cannot completely rule out some
convective development along this boundary which has potential to
migrate back northward into the vicinity of southern Kansas. There
is plenty of available buoyancy with MLCAPE in the vicinity of
3500- 4500 J/kg and RAP forecast soundings suggest effective bulk
wind difference of 40-45kts along the southern tier of Kansas
counties over the next several hours. Convective inhibition has
been on a downward trend in the vicinity of the outflow over the
past few hours, and latest radar imagery shows a couple of storms
have already formed in the vicinity of Enid and Ponca City, OK.
Most short term and hi- res guidance favor a dry scenario for
southern Kansas, but think a few storms are certainly possible.
After 00z, convective inhibition significantly increases across
the entire forecast area once again, so although slight chance
pops were maintained in the forecast for the evening and tonight,
it is possible that these are still overdone for most areas within
the forecast area, particularly before 07z or so.

Temperatures have struggled today in the context of convective
activity for much of the morning and early afternoon in southeast
Kansas and portions of south central Kansas that were originally
included in a heat advisory today. As a result, many counties were
removed from the heat advisory early, and latest observations
suggest even those counties that remain (Kingman, Harper, Sumner)
will only reach advisory criteria for a brief time.

Overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning, a similar scenario as
last night/early this morning is expected with a complex of storms
forming in north central and northeast Kansas and then propagating
southeastward across the forecast area. The best chance for higher
precip amounts appears again to be along the Flint Hills corridor
and in southeast Kansas, where a Flash Flood Watch remains in tact
beginning at 01z this evening and lasting through the morning
tomorrow. Much higher rainfall amounts will be possible a little
further northeast of the area, but with precipitable water (PW)
values in excess of 2.0 inches in portions of central and southeast
Kansas, storms will be very efficient rain producers and present a
flood threat. In addition to flooding, with sufficient buoyancy,
moderate mid-level lapse rates, and roughly 40 kts or so of bulk
shear, some storms overnight/early tomorrow morning could be
strong to severe with hail and strong winds as the main threats.

By tomorrow, expect that most of the showers and storms will have
pushed into the southern portions of the area and down into
Oklahoma. However, have maintained POPs throughout the day, as
models hint at another subtle shortwave in the overall synoptic flow
could sustain shower/storm chances throughout the day and into the
evening.

Things should quiet down, at least temporarily, by around midday
on Friday before another shortwave brings more chances of showers
and thunderstorms overnight Friday night and again on Saturday
evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

In the long range, the mid/upper high over the southwest U.S. is
progged to slide slowly eastward across the southern CONUS from
Saturday-Tuesday of next week. A frontal passage looks to continue
the active pattern for the first half of next week, with fairly
decent chances of showers and storms again during the Monday-
Tuesday time frame. Temperatures will be more seasonable, with
afternoon highs averaging in the upper 80s and low 90s each
afternoon Saturday through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

VFR conditions for all sites except for KCNU where their is a
possibility of a low CIG deck overnight and early tomorrow.
Anticipate VCSH and VCTS for KCNU and KSAL much of the overnight
and morning hours tommorow due to the NW flow aloft and
instability that is in place. Likely seeing another MCS type
system roll through. It is possible this could seep as far south
at KICT, however, I have kept mention out for now. Better TSRA
chances will creep in tomorrow but not confident with timing with
this fcst so I will keep out for now and add with later run.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  87  70  86 /  50  70  50  30
Hutchinson      72  86  69  85 /  40  60  30  20
Newton          71  84  70  84 /  60  70  50  30
ElDorado        71  84  70  85 /  60  70  60  30
Winfield-KWLD   73  87  71  87 /  40  50  50  30
Russell         70  85  67  87 /  50  40  20  30
Great Bend      71  86  68  85 /  40  40  30  20
Salina          71  83  69  86 /  60  70  30  20
McPherson       71  84  68  84 /  50  60  30  30
Coffeyville     73  85  72  87 /  50  60  60  40
Chanute         71  82  71  85 /  60  80  50  40
Iola            70  81  71  85 /  60  80  50  40
Parsons-KPPF    72  83  72  85 /  60  80  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ053-070>072-
095-096-099-100.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-091-092.

&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...CWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A chance for storms capable of heavy rainfall and some severe
weather is expected late this evening and overnight, generally
northeast of a Russell to Wichita to Sedan line. Repeated rounds of
heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and a flash flood watch has
been issued for portions of the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periodic chances of thunderstorms will remain in the forecast each
day through early next week. Some strong or severe storms with
heavy rain will remain possible through the period. Repeated rounds
of heavy rain may lead to localized flooding concerns. Stay tuned,
as daily thunderstorm chances will continue to be refined with
subsequent forecasts.

Heat indices could climb in the 100-105 degree range across
southern Kansas each afternoon Thursday through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
454 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

KSZ072-072230-
Allen KS-
454 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Allen County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 450 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall over Moran, or
  near La Harpe...moving southeast at 40 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  La Harpe, Gas, Moran, Savonburg, Elsmore and Mildred.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9524 3804 9543 3804 9508 3773 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 315DEG 42KT 3790 9522

HAYES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
705 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

KSZ096-080030-
Neosho KS-
705 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 730 PM CDT.

* At 701 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near St. Paul...moving southeast at
  25 mph.

Hail as large as nickels and 40 to 50 mph winds are possible with
this thunderstorm.

* Locations impacted include...
  St. Paul and South Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this thunderstorm and
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9518 3746 9526 3759 9510 3758 9509
      3739 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 313DEG 20KT 3748 9513

ES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
848 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

KSZ070-080215-
Greenwood KS-
848 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 842 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Hamilton, or 9
  miles southwest of Madison...moving east at 15 mph. The
  thunderstorm is developing rapidly! If you live Northern Greenwood
  County you should be alert for threatening weather and listen for
  possible warnings.

Hail around the size of nickels and wind around 50 mph are possible
with this thunderstorm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Madison, Hamilton, Virgil and Thrall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9601 3795 9637 3809 9636 3813 9636
      3817 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 272DEG 14KT 3805 9628

ES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
936 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

KSZ071-095-080300-
Wilson KS-Woodson KS-
936 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  South central Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1000 PM CDT.

* At 932 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall 6 miles west of
  Buffalo, or 9 miles south of Yates Center...moving southeast at 35
  mph.

Hail up to the size of one half inch...and wind gusts up to 50 mph
will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Buffalo, Benedict and Coyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 9596 3781 9583 3771 9554 3752 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 308DEG 30KT 3774 9580

HAYES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1034 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

KSZ071-095-080400-
Wilson KS-Woodson KS-
1034 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  South central Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1100 PM CDT.

* At 1031 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles northwest of Buffalo, or 9
  miles south of Yates Center...moving southeast at 15 mph.

Hail as large as nickels and 40 to 50 mph gusts are possible with
this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Buffalo, Benedict, Coyville and Toronto Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this thunderstorm and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 9575 3772 9595 3786 9579 3771 9553
      3770 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 316DEG 15KT 3775 9581

ES