Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1203 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

As of early this afternoon, the MCS that made its way southeast
across eastern Kansas this morning continues to push off into
southwest Missouri with a few lingering showers in far southeast
Kansas. Ahead of this feature, GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows a well defined outflow boundary extending from roughly
Harper County, KS and southeast into Northern Oklahoma north of
the Tulsa metro area. Increasing cumulus development was noted
along and just to the south of this outflow boundary in northern
Oklahoma.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening, as the remainder of the
elevated convection in southeast Kansas exits the forecast area, the
more stable air should dampen any chances of convection across most
areas. As the previous mesoscale discussion mentioned, however, with
increased/significant heating in the vicinity of the outflow
boundary in northern Oklahoma, cannot completely rule out some
convective development along this boundary which has potential to
migrate back northward into the vicinity of southern Kansas. There
is plenty of available buoyancy with MLCAPE in the vicinity of
3500- 4500 J/kg and RAP forecast soundings suggest effective bulk
wind difference of 40-45kts along the southern tier of Kansas
counties over the next several hours. Convective inhibition has
been on a downward trend in the vicinity of the outflow over the
past few hours, and latest radar imagery shows a couple of storms
have already formed in the vicinity of Enid and Ponca City, OK.
Most short term and hi- res guidance favor a dry scenario for
southern Kansas, but think a few storms are certainly possible.
After 00z, convective inhibition significantly increases across
the entire forecast area once again, so although slight chance
pops were maintained in the forecast for the evening and tonight,
it is possible that these are still overdone for most areas within
the forecast area, particularly before 07z or so.

Temperatures have struggled today in the context of convective
activity for much of the morning and early afternoon in southeast
Kansas and portions of south central Kansas that were originally
included in a heat advisory today. As a result, many counties were
removed from the heat advisory early, and latest observations
suggest even those counties that remain (Kingman, Harper, Sumner)
will only reach advisory criteria for a brief time.

Overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning, a similar scenario as
last night/early this morning is expected with a complex of storms
forming in north central and northeast Kansas and then propagating
southeastward across the forecast area. The best chance for higher
precip amounts appears again to be along the Flint Hills corridor
and in southeast Kansas, where a Flash Flood Watch remains in tact
beginning at 01z this evening and lasting through the morning
tomorrow. Much higher rainfall amounts will be possible a little
further northeast of the area, but with precipitable water (PW)
values in excess of 2.0 inches in portions of central and southeast
Kansas, storms will be very efficient rain producers and present a
flood threat. In addition to flooding, with sufficient buoyancy,
moderate mid-level lapse rates, and roughly 40 kts or so of bulk
shear, some storms overnight/early tomorrow morning could be
strong to severe with hail and strong winds as the main threats.

By tomorrow, expect that most of the showers and storms will have
pushed into the southern portions of the area and down into
Oklahoma. However, have maintained POPs throughout the day, as
models hint at another subtle shortwave in the overall synoptic flow
could sustain shower/storm chances throughout the day and into the
evening.

Things should quiet down, at least temporarily, by around midday
on Friday before another shortwave brings more chances of showers
and thunderstorms overnight Friday night and again on Saturday
evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

In the long range, the mid/upper high over the southwest U.S. is
progged to slide slowly eastward across the southern CONUS from
Saturday-Tuesday of next week. A frontal passage looks to continue
the active pattern for the first half of next week, with fairly
decent chances of showers and storms again during the Monday-
Tuesday time frame. Temperatures will be more seasonable, with
afternoon highs averaging in the upper 80s and low 90s each
afternoon Saturday through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Storms and showers will be the rule on an intermittent basis for
KCNU and KSAL and to an extent at KICT and KHUT. This will bring
about fluctuations in the cigs and vsby as the storms move
through. I have kept cigs aoa 3k for most areas and quick
amendments may be needed with the storms or showers that produce
the heavier rains as the dewpoint spreads will shrink rapidly and
cigs will lower as will the vsby's. KRSL and KGBD will see fewer
fluctuations than the other storms.

The NW flow regime along with the LLJ will aid in keeping VCTS and
VCSH in the tafs for much of the period. High moisture content
will also aid in efficient rain producing storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  87  70  86 /  60  70  50  30
Hutchinson      72  86  69  85 /  70  60  30  20
Newton          71  84  70  84 /  70  70  50  30
ElDorado        71  84  70  85 /  70  70  60  30
Winfield-KWLD   73  87  71  87 /  50  50  50  30
Russell         70  85  67  87 /  50  40  20  30
Great Bend      71  86  68  85 /  70  40  30  20
Salina          71  83  69  86 /  60  70  30  20
McPherson       71  84  68  84 /  60  60  30  30
Coffeyville     73  85  72  87 /  60  60  60  40
Chanute         71  82  71  85 /  70  80  50  40
Iola            70  81  71  85 /  60  80  50  40
Parsons-KPPF    72  83  72  85 /  70  80  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ053-070>072-
095-096-099-100.

&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...CWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A chance for storms capable of heavy rainfall and some severe
weather is expected late this evening and overnight, generally
northeast of a Russell to Wichita to Sedan line. Repeated rounds of
heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and a flash flood watch has
been issued for portions of the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periodic chances of thunderstorms will remain in the forecast each
day through early next week. Some strong or severe storms with
heavy rain will remain possible through the period. Repeated rounds
of heavy rain may lead to localized flooding concerns. Stay tuned,
as daily thunderstorm chances will continue to be refined with
subsequent forecasts.

Heat indices could climb in the 100-105 degree range across
southern Kansas each afternoon Thursday through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1044 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

KSZ070>072-094>096-099-100-080415-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-Greenwood KS-Woodson KS-Labette KS-Neosho KS-
Elk KS-Allen KS-
1044 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Central Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Labette County in southeastern Kansas...
  Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...
  Northeastern Elk County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southwestern Allen County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1115 PM CDT.

* At 1041 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall along a
  line extending from 9 miles northwest of Eureka to 5 miles
  northeast of Altamont...and moving southeast at 35 mph.

Hail up to one half inch...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Parsons, Independence, Chanute, Eureka, Neodesha, Fredonia,
  Cherryvale, Oswego, Yates Center, Erie, Chetopa, Altamont, St.
  Paul, Thayer, Edna, Altoona, Mound Valley, Toronto, Hamilton and
  Buffalo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 9558 3752 9612 3803 9653 3805 9652
      3795 9570 3761 9521 3700 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 309DEG 59KT 3795 9638 3725 9523

HAYES

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