River Flood Warning 204, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
322 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Storms will be ongoing through the morning hours as we remain
within a persistent area of H85 moisture transport/mid level
warm air advection. This pattern may persist through much of the
day and perhaps into the overnight hours across southern Kansas
although the better low level moisture transport is progged to
shift into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri as we move
through the night. The airmass is progged to remain very moist
with PWATS in the 2-2.5 inch range while the layer warm cloud
depths approximations are progged to be >4500 meters. This should
support efficient rainfall and a continued threat for flooding and
flash flooding. The flash flood watch will be extended in time
across all of southeast Kansas through tonight where another 2-4
inches appear likely although locally higher amounts will be
possible. Precipitation and lack of insolation will keep high
temperatures below normal with some locations struggling to climb
out of the 70s.

Fri-Sat...tranquil weather should return across the area on Friday
and Friday night as the effective front is forced well south of
the area toward southern OK. Maintained some low pops across
mainly southeast KS but better probabilities should remain well
south and east of our forecast area. Afternoon highs will remain
below normal with most locations seeing highs in the mid and upper
80s. The mid/upper ridge will amplify as it translates eastward
across the Southern Plains which will result in near normal
temperatures and muggy conditions across the area on Saturday.
It'll be hard to rule out some storms late Sat night into early
Sun as another shortwave trough is progged to rotate around the
subtropical ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the area early on
Sunday with another hot and muggy day anticipated as we remain on
the northern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. This ridge may set
up across the Southern Plains through the middle of the week
keeping the Central Plains on the edge of the stronger mid/upper
flow with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Storms and showers will be the rule on an intermittent basis for
KCNU and KSLN and to an extent at KICT and KHUT. This will bring
about fluctuations in the cigs and vsby as the storms move
through. I have kept cigs aoa 3k for most areas and quick
amendments may be needed with the storms or showers that produce
the heavier rains as the dewpoint spreads will shrink rapidly and
cigs will lower as will the vsby's. KRSL and KGBD will see fewer
fluctuations than the other storms.

The NW flow regime along with the LLJ will aid in keeping VCTS and
VCSH in the tafs for much of the period. High moisture content
will also aid in efficient rain producing storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  69  85  70 /  70  50  30  10
Hutchinson      81  68  84  69 /  60  40  30  10
Newton          80  68  84  69 /  80  40  30  10
ElDorado        83  69  84  70 /  80  60  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   87  70  85  71 /  60  60  30  10
Russell         82  67  85  68 /  70  20  30  10
Great Bend      82  67  84  68 /  60  20  30  10
Salina          80  69  85  69 /  70  30  30  10
McPherson       80  67  83  68 /  70  30  30  10
Coffeyville     85  71  86  72 /  80  80  50  20
Chanute         82  70  84  71 /  90  70  40  20
Iola            78  69  85  70 /  90  50  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    84  71  85  72 /  90  80  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ053-070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
458 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
458 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight
across much of the area bringing repeated rounds of heavy rain to
much of the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Flooding and flash
flooding are likely at times and a flash flood watch remains in
effect through tonight for much of the Flint Hills and southeast
Kansas.

A few strong storms with nickel sized hail and wind gusts
to 50 mph will also be possible across much of southern Kansas
through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

After a brief lull, thunderstorms chances will increase again late
Saturday with continued chances through early next week. Some strong
or severe storms with heavy rain will remain possible through the
period. Repeated rounds of heavy rain may lead to localized flooding
concerns. Stay tuned, as daily thunderstorm chances will continue
to be refined with subsequent forecasts.

Heat indices could climb in the 100-105 degree range across
southern Kansas each afternoon from Saturday through early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
216 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

KSZ033-048-049-051-080800-
Ellsworth KS-McPherson KS-Lincoln KS-Saline KS-
216 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Northern McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Eastern Lincoln County in central Kansas...
  Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 300 AM CDT.

* At 214 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall 6 miles southeast
  of Culver, or 6 miles northwest of Salina...moving east at 20 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Lindsborg, Canton, Kanopolis, Lincoln, Marquette, Assaria,
  Gypsum, Brookville, Smolan, Beverly, New Cambria, Falun, Glendale,
  Westfall, Salina Airport, Roxbury, Bridgeport, Kanopolis Lake and
  Kanopolis State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9793 3896 9793 3896 9737 3834 9737
      3851 9793 3888 9834 3922 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 290DEG 16KT 3890 9770

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
218 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     HAIL             4 ENE CHERRYVALE        37.28N 95.48W
08/08/2019  M0.75 INCH       LABETTE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF 20000 AND CHASE

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
429 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W ALTAMONT            37.19N 95.38W
08/08/2019                   LABETTE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            US 160 JUST EAST OF MOUNDVALLEY IS COVERED WITH WATER.

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
432 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CHERRYVALE              37.27N 95.55W
08/08/2019                   MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POLICE VEHICLE FLOODED IN TOWN.

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
437 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE COYVILLE          37.62N 95.86W
08/08/2019                   WILSON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SECTIONS OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 39 BECOMING FLOODED.

&&

METZGER

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