River Flood Warning 210, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
656 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Storms will be ongoing through the morning hours as we remain
within a persistent area of H85 moisture transport/mid level
warm air advection. This pattern may persist through much of the
day and perhaps into the overnight hours across southern Kansas
although the better low level moisture transport is progged to
shift into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri as we move
through the night. The airmass is progged to remain very moist
with PWATS in the 2-2.5 inch range while the layer warm cloud
depths approximations are progged to be >4500 meters. This should
support efficient rainfall and a continued threat for flooding and
flash flooding. The flash flood watch will be extended in time
across all of southeast Kansas through tonight where another 2-4
inches appear likely although locally higher amounts will be
possible. Precipitation and lack of insolation will keep high
temperatures below normal with some locations struggling to climb
out of the 70s.

Fri-Sat...tranquil weather should return across the area on Friday
and Friday night as the effective front is forced well south of
the area toward southern OK. Maintained some low pops across
mainly southeast KS but better probabilities should remain well
south and east of our forecast area. Afternoon highs will remain
below normal with most locations seeing highs in the mid and upper
80s. The mid/upper ridge will amplify as it translates eastward
across the Southern Plains which will result in near normal
temperatures and muggy conditions across the area on Saturday.
It'll be hard to rule out some storms late Sat night into early
Sun as another shortwave trough is progged to rotate around the
subtropical ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the area early on
Sunday with another hot and muggy day anticipated as we remain on
the northern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. This ridge may set
up across the Southern Plains through the middle of the week
keeping the Central Plains on the edge of the stronger mid/upper
flow with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will dominate the region
throughout the TAF period. VFR conditions can be expected in areas
where thunderstorms are not occurring but MVFR and IFR
conditions are likely during thunderstorms. LIFR conditions can
also be expected with the stronger thunderstorms during the
afternoon and overnight hours. This risk for thunderstorm activity
is expected at all terminals at various times of the TAF period.
This thunderstorm activity is expected to abate some during the
late overnight period and into the morning Friday.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  69  85  70 /  50  50  30  10
Hutchinson      81  68  84  69 /  50  40  30  10
Newton          80  68  84  69 /  70  40  30  10
ElDorado        83  69  84  70 /  70  60  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   87  70  85  71 /  60  60  30  10
Russell         82  67  85  68 /  70  20  30  10
Great Bend      82  67  84  68 /  60  20  30  10
Salina          80  69  85  69 /  70  30  30  10
McPherson       80  67  83  68 /  70  30  30  10
Coffeyville     85  71  86  72 /  80  80  50  20
Chanute         82  70  84  71 /  90  70  40  20
Iola            78  69  85  70 /  90  60  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    84  71  85  72 /  90  80  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ053-070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
458 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
458 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight
across much of the area bringing repeated rounds of heavy rain to
much of the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Flooding and flash
flooding are likely at times and a flash flood watch remains in
effect through tonight for much of the Flint Hills and southeast
Kansas.

A few strong storms with nickel sized hail and wind gusts
to 50 mph will also be possible across much of southern Kansas
through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

After a brief lull, thunderstorms chances will increase again late
Saturday with continued chances through early next week. Some strong
or severe storms with heavy rain will remain possible through the
period. Repeated rounds of heavy rain may lead to localized flooding
concerns. Stay tuned, as daily thunderstorm chances will continue
to be refined with subsequent forecasts.

Heat indices could climb in the 100-105 degree range across
southern Kansas each afternoon from Saturday through early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
718 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E IOLA                37.93N 95.38W
08/08/2019  M4.35 INCH       ALLEN              KS   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
748 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE IOLA              37.89N 95.38W
08/08/2019  M4.14 INCH       ALLEN              KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

ADK

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