Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
208 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the forecast area through this
evening bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. Cooler
temperatures and lingering showers are expected behind the front.
Temperatures will warm again by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM: A deep trough extends across the Mississippi
Valley, with an embedded upper low centered over northern
Mississippi. Within a moist and moderately unstable airmass
over our area, and the strongly divergent flow aloft downstream
of the trough, widespread convection will affect the CWFA this
afternoon. Storms within the CWFA range from discrete cells in
the more unstable I-77 corridor, to linear segments with embedded
circulations. Exceptionally strong low-level shear will continue
to support a tornado threat through the afternoon. A Tornado Watch
remains in effect for most of the Piedmont.

Additional details will be added shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Friday: the short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Saturday with an impressive upper low centered just to our north
as steep upper ridging spreads over the Western CONUS. Because
this system is essentially cut-off from the northern-stream upper
flow, it will push eastward very slowly and is not expected to
move off the Atlantic Coast until the very end of the period on
Monday. At the sfc, a substantial low pressure system will be
centered to our NNW and over the Ohio River Valley as the cold
front associated with it moves offshore. Over the next 24hrs or
so, the low will remain nearly stationary as a substantial plum
of deep-lyr moisture spreads over much of the CWFA from the west.
The latest model guidance continues to open up the low by Sunday
morning as the system gradually lifts NE of the fcst area and
drier air moves back over the area. For the rest of the period,
drier high pressure centered over the Northern Gulf of Mexico
will persist over the Southeast. As for the sensible fcst, we
will likely have some lingering precip on Sat with the remainder
of the period being dry. With the impressive cold-air advection
expected across the region and unusually low thickness values,
some snow flurries are expected over the higher elevations early
Sat and early Sun. Some accumulating snow is possible above 3500
ft, with a better chance above 5000ft. At this time, I do not
anticipate any winter hazard products will be needed, but if
expected snow amounts trend upwards then hazards cannot be ruled
out. The resulting windy conditions should help inhibit any frost
formation across the active zones (which is everywhere except the
Northern NC Mountains). Temps should warm back into the upper 60s
to low 70s across the lower elevations on Sunday, with more warming
as we move into the extended period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Mid level ridging and surface high pressure
will be in place across the region for Monday through Wednesday.
Conditions should be dry and warm with highs reaching into the lower
80s in the Piedmont by Wednesday. A mid level trof and associated
cold front will appreach the area from the northwest late in the
week with an increasing chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Multiple rounds of convection will affect
aviation across the region this aftn and early evening. For KCLT
and KHKY impacts most likely will come from a band of mostly
stratiform RA with embedded TSRA. KGSP and KGMU will start off
dry and VFR, but a well developed QLCS will push thru early in
the period, possibly surviving to KHKY/KCLT. The SHRA/TSRA are
likely to bring brief gusts above 30 kt, mainly out of the W or
SW. The QLCS poses a risk of damaging wind and a tornado cannot be
ruled out along it. Even following the departure of these events,
an upper low passing near the area this evening may access enough
remnant instability to drive a few showers and possibly TSRA,
which would still be capable of at least gusty winds. Mainly
MVFR cigs are expected thru tonight, with IFR to LIFR vsby likely
with the stronger TSRA. A continuing chance for SHRA (even SHSN
in very high elevations) exists overnight across the mtns, with
winds remaining breezy across the region. The upper low will drift
across the area during the day and ISO/SCT SHRA should redevelop
across the Piedmont, perhaps bringing MVFR cigs/vsby.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Sunday and early
next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  87%     Med   78%     Med   70%     Low   59%
KGSP       High  90%     Med   77%     Med   70%     High  88%
KAVL       High  90%     High  89%     Med   77%     High  83%
KHKY       Med   68%     High  85%     High  82%     High  84%
KGMU       High  85%     High  81%     Med   70%     High  87%
KAND       High  82%     High  82%     Med   71%     High  90%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ002-003-005>014-
019-201500-
Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Additionally, periods of heavy rain will occur through this
afternoon. Isolated flash flooding may occur, especially in poorly
drained areas, areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ048>053-058-059-062>064-201500-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Periods of heavy rain also will occur through early afternoon.
Isolated flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams,
areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flash flooding to
our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ065-SCZ001-004-201500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Henderson-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavy rain will occur through early afternoon. Isolated
flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams, areas of
hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flooding to our
office.

NCZ033-201500-
Avery-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Periods of heavy rain also will occur through early afternoon.
Isolated flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams,
areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E BRYSON CITY         35.43N 83.37W
04/19/2019                   SWAIN              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG CONNELLY CREEK.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE NINE TIMES         34.90N 82.83W
04/19/2019  M6.29 INCH       PICKENS            SC   COCORAHS

&&

CSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ049-050-053-065-503>510-SCZ002-003-192000-
Buncombe NC-Greater Burke NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Eastern Polk NC-Greater Rutherford NC-
McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Burke Mountains NC-Henderson NC-
Polk Mountains NC-Mitchell NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
306 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN
RUTHERFORD...HENDERSON...WESTERN POLK...MITCHELL...EASTERN
BUNCOMBE...EASTERN YANCEY...WESTERN BURKE...NORTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE
AND NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 306 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles northeast of Downtown Asheville to 15
miles southeast of Brevard, and moving northeast at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Marion, Spruce Pine, Burnsville, Downtown Asheville,
East Asheville, Arden, Black Mountain, Fletcher and Swannanoa.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for western North
Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3611 8213 3610 8208 3601 8204 3599 8206
      3595 8204 3591 8198 3600 8190 3598 8187
      3597 8182 3596 8180 3569 8180 3495 8259
      3494 8262 3514 8259 3514 8258 3516 8259
      3561 8253 3613 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 210DEG 48KT 3563 8245 3508 8254

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
308 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ508-510-SCZ003-006-007-010>012-019-192015-
Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern Polk NC-Laurens SC-Anderson SC-
Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
308 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...EASTERN
POLK...WESTERN LAURENS...GREENVILLE...WESTERN SPARTANBURG...
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 12 miles south of Greenville Downtown to 13 miles
east of Washington, and moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenwood, Laurens, Abbeville, Rutherfordton,
Columbus, Spartanburg, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville and
Greer.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for western North
Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3399 8215 3397 8218 3399 8221
      3402 8224 3397 8231 3406 8233 3406 8244
      3408 8248 3407 8253 3492 8248 3553 8195
      3553 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 227DEG 24KT 3469 8245 3376 8251

WJM