Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
208 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the forecast area through this
evening bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. Cooler
temperatures and lingering showers are expected behind the front.
Temperatures will warm again by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM: A deep trough extends across the Mississippi
Valley, with an embedded upper low centered over northern
Mississippi. Within a moist and moderately unstable airmass
over our area, and the strongly divergent flow aloft downstream
of the trough, widespread convection will affect the CWFA this
afternoon. Storms within the CWFA range from discrete cells in
the more unstable I-77 corridor, to linear segments with embedded
circulations. Exceptionally strong low-level shear will continue
to support a tornado threat through the afternoon. A Tornado Watch
remains in effect for most of the Piedmont.

Additional details will be added shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Friday: the short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Saturday with an impressive upper low centered just to our north
as steep upper ridging spreads over the Western CONUS. Because
this system is essentially cut-off from the northern-stream upper
flow, it will push eastward very slowly and is not expected to
move off the Atlantic Coast until the very end of the period on
Monday. At the sfc, a substantial low pressure system will be
centered to our NNW and over the Ohio River Valley as the cold
front associated with it moves offshore. Over the next 24hrs or
so, the low will remain nearly stationary as a substantial plum
of deep-lyr moisture spreads over much of the CWFA from the west.
The latest model guidance continues to open up the low by Sunday
morning as the system gradually lifts NE of the fcst area and
drier air moves back over the area. For the rest of the period,
drier high pressure centered over the Northern Gulf of Mexico
will persist over the Southeast. As for the sensible fcst, we
will likely have some lingering precip on Sat with the remainder
of the period being dry. With the impressive cold-air advection
expected across the region and unusually low thickness values,
some snow flurries are expected over the higher elevations early
Sat and early Sun. Some accumulating snow is possible above 3500
ft, with a better chance above 5000ft. At this time, I do not
anticipate any winter hazard products will be needed, but if
expected snow amounts trend upwards then hazards cannot be ruled
out. The resulting windy conditions should help inhibit any frost
formation across the active zones (which is everywhere except the
Northern NC Mountains). Temps should warm back into the upper 60s
to low 70s across the lower elevations on Sunday, with more warming
as we move into the extended period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Mid level ridging and surface high pressure
will be in place across the region for Monday through Wednesday.
Conditions should be dry and warm with highs reaching into the lower
80s in the Piedmont by Wednesday. A mid level trof and associated
cold front will appreach the area from the northwest late in the
week with an increasing chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Multiple rounds of convection will affect
aviation across the region this aftn and early evening. For KCLT
and KHKY impacts most likely will come from a band of mostly
stratiform RA with embedded TSRA. KGSP and KGMU will start off
dry and VFR, but a well developed QLCS will push thru early in
the period, possibly surviving to KHKY/KCLT. The SHRA/TSRA are
likely to bring brief gusts above 30 kt, mainly out of the W or
SW. The QLCS poses a risk of damaging wind and a tornado cannot be
ruled out along it. Even following the departure of these events,
an upper low passing near the area this evening may access enough
remnant instability to drive a few showers and possibly TSRA,
which would still be capable of at least gusty winds. Mainly
MVFR cigs are expected thru tonight, with IFR to LIFR vsby likely
with the stronger TSRA. A continuing chance for SHRA (even SHSN
in very high elevations) exists overnight across the mtns, with
winds remaining breezy across the region. The upper low will drift
across the area during the day and ISO/SCT SHRA should redevelop
across the Piedmont, perhaps bringing MVFR cigs/vsby.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Sunday and early
next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  87%     Med   78%     Med   70%     Low   59%
KGSP       High  90%     Med   77%     Med   70%     High  88%
KAVL       High  90%     High  89%     Med   77%     High  83%
KHKY       Med   68%     High  85%     High  82%     High  84%
KGMU       High  85%     High  81%     Med   70%     High  87%
KAND       High  82%     High  82%     Med   71%     High  90%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ002-003-005>014-
019-201500-
Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Additionally, periods of heavy rain will occur through this
afternoon. Isolated flash flooding may occur, especially in poorly
drained areas, areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ048>053-058-059-062>064-201500-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Periods of heavy rain also will occur through early afternoon.
Isolated flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams,
areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flash flooding to
our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ065-SCZ001-004-201500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Henderson-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavy rain will occur through early afternoon. Isolated
flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams, areas of
hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flooding to our
office.

NCZ033-201500-
Avery-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Periods of heavy rain also will occur through early afternoon.
Isolated flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams,
areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
143 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ057-071-072-082-191815-
Rowan NC-Union NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
143 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CABARRUS...SOUTHEASTERN
MECKLENBURG AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 142 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monroe, or near Unionville, moving north at 40 mph. Other strong
thunderstorm cells were located over Cabarrus County east of
Harrisburg and over Mecklenburg County near Mint Hill...also moving
north at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Monroe, South Charlotte, East
Charlotte, West Concord, Matthews, Mint Hill, Indian Trail and
Weddington.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3518 8050 3516 8044
      3517 8042 3517 8039 3518 8037 3517 8036
      3517 8034 3484 8048 3485 8072 3513 8079
      3551 8066 3551 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 195DEG 35KT 3504 8052

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
151 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ028-029-SCZ002-004-005-010-011-191815-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-
151 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ELBERT...HART...WESTERN
ANDERSON...CENTRAL PICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 150 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of
Pickens to near Seneca to 6 miles west of Elberton, and moving
northeast at 60 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Clemson, Seneca, Elberton, Hartwell, Pickens, Homeland
Park, Central, Northlake and Pendleton.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3397 8264 3399 8265 3397 8278 3399 8283
      3398 8286 3401 8291 3401 8294 3403 8294
      3408 8301 3459 8302 3480 8292 3481 8290
      3484 8290 3498 8283 3506 8276 3505 8274
      3506 8266 3403 8258 3401 8260 3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 207DEG 52KT 3499 8282 3468 8297 3408 8297

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
203 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ037-057-191845-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-
203 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN DAVIE AND ROWAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Mocksville, or 4 miles southeast of Cooleemee,
moving north at 50 mph. Other strong cells will move from Cabarrus
County and into Rowan County through 230 pm.

Locations to be impacted include...
Salisbury, Mocksville, Kannapolis, China Grove, Spencer, Landis,
Enochville, Granite Quarry, Rockwell and Bermuda Run.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3551 8067 3605 8051 3604 8049 3606 8046
      3601 8042 3599 8042 3596 8038 3590 8037
      3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039 3585 8042
      3583 8043 3583 8049 3577 8045 3574 8046
      3571 8033 3568 8033 3559 8021 3551 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 199DEG 42KT 3579 8049

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
215 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ028-029-NCZ064-SCZ001>005-010-011-191915-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Transylvania NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
215 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ELBERT...EASTERN HART...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...ANDERSON...PICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE
AND EASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 215 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 9 miles west of Pickens to 9 miles south of
Elberton, and moving north at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Easley, Clemson, Elberton, Pickens, Homeland Park, Central,
Northlake, Pendleton and Liberty.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3399 8283 3398 8286 3400 8288 3401 8290
      3499 8294 3517 8259 3515 8258 3515 8256
      3408 8248 3407 8253 3405 8256 3401 8260
      3399 8258 3397 8264 3399 8265 3398 8273
      3397 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 163DEG 17KT 3490 8288 3397 8283

WJM

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