Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

688 
WGUS72 KGSP 192240
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
640 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCC121-199-192245-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190419T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell NC-Yancey NC-
640 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND NORTHWESTERN
YANCEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3597 8261 3595 8256
      3598 8250 3595 8248 3591 8249 3589 8245
      3582 8241 3580 8252 3568 8288 3574 8292
      3574 8295 3580 8296 3588 8290 3593 8292
      3594 8290 3593 8281 3600 8277 3606 8264

$$

NCC115-192330-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190419T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison NC-
640 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR
MADISON COUNTY...

At 635 PM EDT, excessive runoff will linger across many tributaries 
of the French Broad River, especially the Ivy River, Spring Creek 
and Laurel Creek. Through mid-evening, lingering flooding is 
expected to become limited to just the French Broad, therefore, the 
Flash Flood Warning will expire on schedule.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly and mountainous terrain, there are hundreds of low-water
crossings which can be dangerous in heavy rain. Low-water crossings
can be submerged by flood waters quickly and without warning. Never
attempt to travel across flooded crossings. Find an alternate route.
It takes only a few inches of swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles
away.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3597 8261 3595 8256
      3598 8250 3595 8248 3591 8249 3589 8245
      3582 8241 3580 8252 3568 8288 3574 8292
      3574 8295 3580 8296 3588 8290 3593 8292
      3594 8290 3593 8281 3600 8277 3606 8264

$$

CSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1051 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the forecast area today
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. There is a
good chance that some of these storms could become severe as
the front moves through the area. Cooler temperatures and
lingering showers are expected behind the front. Temperatures
will warm again by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM: Band of precip with embedded linear convective
segments continues to progress eastward into the CWFA. Previous
thinking w.r.t. severe potential remains essentially the same,
and all of the ingredients for high-shear/low-CAPE impacts still
are present or progged to come together by early afternoon. A
number of minor wind damage reports have already been received
from areas affected by the better organized segments, with minor
flood impacts also having developed in the areas near the southern
facing Blue Ridge Escarpment. A Tornado Watch just was issued to
cover the area that has not already seen the stabilizing impacts
of the rain, and is valid until 5 PM EDT. Have updated timing of
PoPs and thunder mention across the CWFA, and temp/dewpt trends
were closely tied to the HRRR output, which is our best choice in
such a rapidly changing environment.

Overall, a closed upper low in the Mid-South will slow down somewhat
while the surrounding trough begins to acquire a negative tilt. This
will likely do two things. One, it will provide a significant
couplet of strong synoptic ascending and descending air associated
with a 120 kt jet streak overhead. Two, the slowing should allow
for diurnal instability over the eastern half of the area, that is,
the area where activity has not yet really fired, to be able to tap
into strong shear (0-1 km BS of 40+ kts) just above the surface
(two key ingredients for severe weather). The leading line of
convection (QLCS) looks to have the greatest widespread severe
threat prior to 4 pm, with severe winds (in excess of 58 mph)
the primary threat due to the potential for a strong rear inflow
jet associated with the QLCS with a secondary threat for both
tornadoes and severe hail. SPC Moderate Risk remains in effect
for the I-77 corridor including Charlotte meaning that scattered
severe thunderstorms are likely. The severe risk gradually decreases
heading west across the FA, but the latest Day 1 outlook is more
or less identical to the previous issuance within the CWFA. The
mode of convection is more up for debate after the initial line as
model guidance does show a secondary frontal feature following the
main one, but the question remains as to how much instability will
be left and how any convection may organize along or out ahead of
it. There remains enough model support to expect some disorganized
convection moving generally SW to NE as llvl flow veers to the SW
with the upper low nearing the FA later this afternoon. Can't rule
out a few supercell thunderstorms developing ahead or along the
main line of convection (if there are breaks) or mini supercells
behind the system, with instability being limiting factor at
that time.  The slow moving nature of convection with the main
line of convection in particular will cause at least isolated
hydro issues to small streams and roadways (WPC slight risk for
excessive rainfall across the region). The strong southerly winds
along and ahead of this system will support gusty winds across
the high elevations, especially SW mountains where a wind advisory
has been posted and continues through noon.

Most areas will see rain and thunderstorms come to an end by this
evening as the main forcing exits NE of the region. However, the
cold core upper low will support snow levels falling to around 4K
feet and potential for accumulating snows at this level with several
inches possible above 5K feet, especially where the best upslope
flow (from the SW) overlaps with good synoptic lift and moisture
across the SW mtns. As of now the main winter weather impacts
appear to be above 5K feet so any winter products will be shelved
for now, but considered on future shifts. Temps for most areas
will only fall into the 40s and 50s (30s higher mtn elevations)
due to continued breezy conditions, so frost should not be an issue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Friday: the short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Saturday with an impressive upper low centered just to our north
as steep upper ridging spreads over the Western CONUS. Because
this system is essentially cut-off from the northern-stream upper
flow, it will push eastward very slowly and is not expected to
move off the Atlantic Coast until the very end of the period on
Monday. At the sfc, a substantial low pressure system will be
centered to our NNW and over the Ohio River Valley as the cold
front associated with it moves offshore. Over the next 24hrs or
so, the low will remain nearly stationary as a substantial plum
of deep-lyr moisture spreads over much of the CWFA from the west.
The latest model guidance continues to open up the low by Sunday
morning as the system gradually lifts NE of the fcst area and
drier air moves back over the area. For the rest of the period,
drier high pressure centered over the Northern Gulf of Mexico
will persist over the Southeast. As for the sensible fcst, we
will likely have some lingering precip on Sat with the remainder
of the period being dry. With the impressive cold-air advection
expected across the region and unusually low thickness values,
some snow flurries are expected over the higher elevations early
Sat and early Sun. Some accumulating snow is possible above 3500
ft, with a better chance above 5000ft. At this time, I do not
anticipate any winter hazard products will be needed, but if
expected snow amounts trend upwards then hazards cannot be ruled
out. The resulting windy conditions should help inhibit any frost
formation across the active zones (which is everywhere except the
Northern NC Mountains). Temps should warm back into the upper 60s
to low 70s across the lower elevations on Sunday, with more warming
as we move into the extended period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday: Upper low over the Mid-Atlantic will
continue to lift north, with high pressure building in and
increasing thicknesses. Temperatures will increase through the
extended, 5 to maybe even 10 degrees above seasonal. A shortwave
spinning around the upper low may bring some showery activity or
even possible thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, GFS a little stronger
with this idea than ECMWF. Next system gearing up over the Rockies
will push off into the Plains sometime midweek, but there are some
very significant timing differences between the global models, so
frankly opted to keep a fairly generic blend through the end of the
period and into the new day 7. As a note to readers, depending on
how near-term activity shapes up tonight, the extended forecast may
not be updated until Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Rapidly deteriorating conds expected between
12Z and 18Z associated with a dynamic storm system to move through
the region. Model guidance shows that the strong line of showers and
thunderstorms (QLCS) approaching across the deep south will hold
together and even intensify east of I-26 and especially near the I-
77 corridor, including KCLT. Brief SW/W gusts in excess of 40 kts
is possible with the QLCS. Light to occasionally moderate LLWS is
possible, especially between 15Z and 20Z. LLWS issues may linger at
KAVL behind this time as winds veer to the SW. A secondary impulse
of showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with the leading
edge of the upper low are possible just about anywhere between 18Z
and 00Z.

Outlook: Improving conditions are expected early Saturday. Spotty
restrictions cannot be ruled out over the mtns as an upper low
passes by on Saturday.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High  85%     High  87%     High  91%     High  87%
KGSP       Med   71%     High  89%     Med   77%     High  80%
KAVL       Med   75%     High  89%     Med   64%     High  90%
KHKY       High  91%     High  87%     Med   75%     High  84%
KGMU       Med   73%     High  91%     Med   77%     High  82%
KAND       Med   79%     Med   77%     High  87%     High  82%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ033-048>052-058-059-
     062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Munroe/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...Munroe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ002-003-005>014-
019-201500-
Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Additionally, periods of heavy rain will occur through this
afternoon. Isolated flash flooding may occur, especially in poorly
drained areas, areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ048>053-058-059-062>064-201500-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Periods of heavy rain also will occur through early afternoon.
Isolated flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams,
areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flash flooding to
our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ065-SCZ001-004-201500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Henderson-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavy rain will occur through early afternoon. Isolated
flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams, areas of
hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flooding to our
office.

NCZ033-201500-
Avery-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Periods of heavy rain also will occur through early afternoon.
Isolated flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams,
areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1225 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FAIRVIEW                35.52N 82.40W
04/19/2019                   BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ALONG CANE CREEK WHICH IS FLOODING FIELDS AND
            ROADWAYS.

&&

SWILKINS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1258 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ501-502-504-191745-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
1258 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 1257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Morganton, or near Drexel, moving north at 40 mph.
This storm was part of a larger line of strong thunderstorms moving
across the northern foothills of North Carolina.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Morganton, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Valdese, Gamewell,
Hudson, Icard, Cajah's Mountain and Drexel.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and torrential rainfall rates
up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for western and
the Piedmont of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8145 3607 8144
      3607 8141 3604 8139 3602 8134 3600 8133
      3592 8134 3556 8154 3556 8158 3557 8160
      3556 8166 3557 8167 3558 8169 3558 8170
      3561 8172 3561 8175 3612 8163 3612 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 195DEG 35KT 3573 8160

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
113 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ082-191745-
Union NC-
113 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 145
PM EDT...

At 113 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Monroe, or 4 miles southeast of Mineral Springs,
moving north at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Unionville, Wesley Chapel, Wingate, Lake Park, Mineral
Springs, Hemby Bridge, Fairview In Union County, Indian Trail and
Stallings.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3482 8052 3482 8074 3512 8066 3520 8055
      3520 8053 3518 8049 3518 8048 3517 8047
      3516 8044 3517 8042 3516 8041 3518 8037
      3517 8036 3517 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 195DEG 35KT 3489 8062

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
117 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ001-004-191815-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
117 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN
STEPHENS...NORTHWESTERN HART AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
215 PM EDT...

At 116 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Carnesville, or 5 miles southwest of Victoria Bryant
State Park, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Seneca, Carnesville, Walhalla, Royston, Westminster, Lavonia, Gumlog,
Canon, Franklin Springs and Bowersville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3425 8334 3428 8335 3482 8302 3479 8288
      3474 8290 3473 8286 3470 8286 3470 8285
      3467 8285 3464 8283 3449 8299 3448 8299
      3449 8294 3426 8311 3427 8312 3424 8318
      3424 8325 3426 8330 3423 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 203DEG 35KT 3427 8325

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
122 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

SCZ007-191745-
Spartanburg SC-
122 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM EDT...

At 122 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Spartanburg, or over Moore, moving north at 45
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Cowpens, Mayo, Roebuck, Chesnee,
Croft State Park, Moore, USC Upstate and Cedar Springs.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for western North
Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3479 8212 3519 8201 3519 8189 3518 8187
      3506 8181 3504 8181 3503 8179 3499 8177
      3472 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 198DEG 40KT 3484 8199

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
133 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ057-072-191800-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
133 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CABARRUS AND ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kannapolis, moving north at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Salisbury, Downtown Concord, China Grove, Spencer,
Landis, Enochville, Granite Quarry, Cleveland and Faith.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3541 8053 3544 8064 3551 8074 3586 8069
      3584 8067 3583 8061 3582 8061 3583 8060
      3582 8059 3582 8058 3578 8051 3578 8050
      3577 8049 3578 8048 3573 8045 3572 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 195DEG 35KT 3550 8063

MOORE