Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

036 
WGUS52 KGSP 191843
FFWGSP
NCC175-200100-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190420T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Transylvania County in western North Carolina...

* Until 900 PM EDT Friday.

* At 242 PM EDT, Doppler Radar has indicated heavy rainfall 
  continues over central and eastern Transylvania County. Widespread 
  storm-total rainfall of 5-7 inches with isolated areas of 7-8 
  inches of rainfall has occurred since this morning (over the past 
  8-10 hours). The last round of heavy rain is moving through 
  eastern Transylvania County where another quick inch of rainfall 
  is expected, exacerbating ongoing flooding and rising rivers. 
  Additional rainfall is possible as new rounds of showers and 
  storms develop over central and western Georgia, but at this time 
  it is believed the heaviest rainfall has already occurred and any 
  additional rainfall should not cause new flooding to develop.

* Several streamgauges are above Minor Flood Stage and are 
  continuing to rise.  The French Broad River at Rosman is currently 
  at 10.60 feet and is rising rapidly.  Expect the French Broad 
  River to reach 12-13 feet before cresting.  At these levels, the 
  French Broad River is approaching homes along Depot St. in Rosman 
  and evacuations may be needed. Additionally, floodwaters will 
  likely inundate US 178 and portions of Main St. adjacent to the 
  gauge site and require closure.  

* Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause landslides near 
  steep terrain. The landslides can consist of rock, mud, vegetation 
  and other loose materials.  

* Elsewhere down the French Broad River, Davidson River, Little 
  River, and other streams and tributaries, expect widespread and 
  significant low-lying area flooding to worsen over the next 
  several hours.  Significant flooding of common flood areas 
  including Island Ford Rd, Hannah Ford Rd, Cascade Lake Rd, River 
  Rd, Big Willow Rd, Wilson Rd, and Davidson River Rd, among many
  others is ongoing.

* Significant runoff continues as the rainfall works through the 
  soils and into streams. Streams will continue to rise and will 
  stay elevated for several hours! Therefore, even after the heavy 
  rain ends, people in are urged to stay away from low-water 
  crossings, low-lying roadways adjacent to streams, and all areas 
  adjacent to streams including parks, greenways, farmland, and 
  residences including apartment buildings and campgrounds. Please 
  obey all barricades and evacuation orders!

* Some locations that will continue to experience flooding include...
  Brevard, Rosman, Lake Toxaway, Looking Glass, Dupont State Forest,
  Gorges State Park, Balsam Grove, Penrose, Connestee and Little
  River In Transylvania County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The heavy rainfall has increased the risk of landslides, especially 
in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be especially alert 
if you are near a stream, especially at the base of a mountain or in 
a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a sudden increase 
in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is observed. When 
driving along roads where the terrain is steep or rocky, watch and 
listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other debris.

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

Numerous roads and bridges are threatened by rapidly rising streams 
and creeks. Please pay close attention to road signs indicating a 
flood-prone area. Obey all barricades, even if water is not 
currently over the road. Barricades are in place for your protection 
and indicate areas where flooding can occur rapidly and without 
warning.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 8298 3516 8300 3519 8299 3524 8293
      3529 8292 3531 8288 3532 8283 3542 8274
      3530 8262 3514 8258 3512 8266 3513 8268
      3510 8270 3509 8273 3507 8275 3507 8278
      3509 8279 3503 8301 3505 8306

$$

JMP

775 
WGUS72 KGSP 192325
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
725 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCC175-200100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190420T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Transylvania NC-
725 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY...

At 723 PM EDT, Streamgauges were indicating falling levels across 
most tributaries of the upper French Broad River. Through mid-
evening, expect flood conditions to become increasing limited to 
just the French Broad River itself, therefore the Flash Flood 
Warning is expected to expire on schedule.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please pay close attention to road signs indicating a flood-prone 
area. Obey all barricades, even if water is not currently over the 
road. Barricades are in place for your protection and indicate areas 
where flooding can occur rapidly and without warning.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 8287 3514 8291 3516 8291 3519 8289
      3521 8285 3526 8278 3531 8269 3530 8262
      3514 8258 3512 8266 3513 8268 3513 8269
      3511 8270 3510 8273 3510 8276 3509 8279
      3508 8285 3509 8287

$$

CSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
654 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the forecast area today
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. There is a
good chance that some of these storms could become severe as
the front moves through the area. Cooler temperatures and
lingering showers are expected behind the front. Temperatures
will warm again by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM...Latest radar imagery showed a well defined line
thunderstorms extending north out of the Gulf fo Mexico into the
Southern Appalachians. Some thunderstorms have been strong to severe
with a couple of warnings already issued this morning (no damage
reports so far). Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour raise some
hydro concerns, but the line is moving just fast enough to alleviate
these concerns somewhat. However, there is the potential that this
line will slow down or training of storms could become more
prevalent, increasing this risk. Have tweaked PoPs and other avn
grids to match the latest trends.

Otherwise, the big story continues to be the dynamic upper low
pressing east into the Deep South and the associated severe weather
potential for our area later today. The latest radar showed an
organized line of convection (QLCS) stretching north to south from
the Gulf of Mexico into eastern TN. The upper low responsible for
this line of convection is expected to close off across northern MS
this afternoon before curling east and then northeast into the
southern to mid Appalachian mtns tonight. The closed low will slow
down somewhat while beginning to acquire a negative tilt. This will
likely do two things. One, it will provide a significant couplet of
strong synoptic ascending and descending air associated with a 120
kt jet streak overhead. Two, the slowing should allow for diurnal
instability (especially for the I-77 corridor) to be able to tap
into strong shear (0-1 km BS of 40+ kts) just above the surface (two
key ingredients for severe weather). The leading line of convection
(QLCS) looks to have the greatest widespread severe threat after 11
am with severe winds (in excess of 58 mph) the primary threat due to
the potential for a strong rear inflow jet associated with the QLCS
with a secondary threat for both tornadoes and severe hail. In fact
SPC has issued an moderate risk of severe weather for the I-77
corridor including Charlotte meaning that scattered severe
thunderstorms are likely. The severe risk gradually decreases
heading west across the FA. The mode of convection is more up for
debate after the initial line as model guidance does show a
secondary frontal feature following the main one, but the question
remains as to how much instability will be left and how any
convection may organize along or out ahead of it. Leaning towards
more disorganized convection moving generally SW to NE as llvl flow
veers to the SW with the upper low nearing the FA later this
afternoon. Can't rule out a few supercell thunderstorms developing
ahead or along the main line of convection (if there are breaks) or
mini super cells behind the system (mini due to the relative lack of
instability. The slow moving nature of convection with the main line
of convection in particular will likely cause at least some hydro
issues to small streams and roadways (WPC slight risk for excessive
rainfall across the region). The strong southerly winds along and
ahead of this system will support gusty winds across the high
elevations, especially SW mountains where a wind advisory has been
posted and continues through noon.

Most areas will see rain and thunderstorms come to an end by this
evening as the main forcing exits NE of the region. However, the
cold core upper low will support snow levels falling to around 4K
feet and potential for accumulating snows at this level with several
inches possible above 5K feet, especially where the best upslope
flow (from the SW) overlaps with good synoptic lift and moisture
across the SW mtns. As of now the main winter weather impacts appear
to be above 5K feet so any winter products will be shelved for now,
but considered on future shifts. Temps for most areas will only fall
into the 40s and 50s (30s higher mtn elevations) due to continued
breezy conditions, so frost should not be an issue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Friday: the short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Saturday with an impressive upper low centered just to our north
as steep upper ridging spreads over the Western CONUS. Because
this system is essentially cut-off from the northern-stream upper
flow, it will push eastward very slowly and is not expected to
move off the Atlantic Coast until the very end of the period on
Monday. At the sfc, a substantial low pressure system will be
centered to our NNW and over the Ohio River Valley as the cold
front associated with it moves offshore. Over the next 24hrs or
so, the low will remain nearly stationary as a substantial plum
of deep-lyr moisture spreads over much of the CWFA from the west.
The latest model guidance continues to open up the low by Sunday
morning as the system gradually lifts NE of the fcst area and
drier air moves back over the area. For the rest of the period,
drier high pressure centered over the Northern Gulf of Mexico
will persist over the Southeast. As for the sensible fcst, we
will likely have some lingering precip on Sat with the remainder
of the period being dry. With the impressive cold-air advection
expected across the region and unusually low thickness values,
some snow flurries are expected over the higher elevations early
Sat and early Sun. Some accumulating snow is possible above 3500
ft, with a better chance above 5000ft. At this time, I do not
anticipate any winter hazard products will be needed, but if
expected snow amounts trend upwards then hazards cannot be ruled
out. The resulting windy conditions should help inhibit any frost
formation across the active zones (which is everywhere except the
Northern NC Mountains). Temps should warm back into the upper 60s
to low 70s across the lower elevations on Sunday, with more warming
as we move into the extended period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday: Upper low over the Mid-Atlantic will
continue to lift north, with high pressure building in and
increasing thicknesses. Temperatures will increase through the
extended, 5 to maybe even 10 degrees above seasonal. A shortwave
spinning around the upper low may bring some showery activity or
even possible thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, GFS a little stronger
with this idea than ECMWF. Next system gearing up over the Rockies
will push off into the Plains sometime midweek, but there are some
very significant timing differences between the global models, so
frankly opted to keep a fairly generic blend through the end of the
period and into the new day 7. As a note to readers, depending on
how near-term activity shapes up tonight, the extended forecast may
not be updated until Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Rapidly deteriorating conds expected between
12Z and 18Z associated with a dynamic storm system to move through
the region. Model guidance shows that the strong line of showers and
thunderstorms (QLCS) approaching across the deep south will hold
together and even intensify east of I-26 and especially near the I-
77 corridor, including KCLT. Brief SW/W gusts in excess of 40 kts
is possible with the QLCS. Light to occasionally moderate LLWS is
possible, especially between 15Z and 20Z. LLWS issues may linger at
KAVL behind this time as winds veer to the SW. A secondary impulse
of showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with the leading
edge of the upper low are possible just about anywhere between 18Z
and 00Z.

Outlook: Improving conditions are expected early Saturday. Spotty
restrictions cannot be ruled out over the mtns as an upper low
passes by on Saturday.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  81%     Med   75%     High  93%
KGSP       High  85%     Low   56%     Med   75%     Med   71%
KAVL       High  93%     High  94%     High  87%     High  85%
KHKY       High 100%     High  87%     High  87%     Med   64%
KGMU       Med   71%     Low   56%     High  81%     Med   71%
KAND       Med   71%     High  87%     High  81%     High  85%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ033-048>052-058-059-
     062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Munroe
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...Munroe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
804 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-201215-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
804 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A band of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will also
move over the mountains. The primary threat from these showers and
storms will be from very heavy rainfall leading to rapid water rises
on small streams and in areas of poor drainage. Localized flash
flooding will be possible. In addition, brief, damaging wind gusts
cannot be ruled out during any heavier showers or thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds or
flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>014-019-201215-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
804 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A band of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected
to move across the foothills and Piedmont today. Isolated severe
thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and
isolated brief tornadoes will be possible, especially across the
Piedmont, and especially in the late morning and afternoon. In
addition, localized excessive rainfall may cause flash flooding of
small streams and urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds,
tornadoes, large hail, or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
506 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ010-NCZ051-058-059-062>064-191000-
Rabun GA-Transylvania NC-Graham NC-Swain NC-Southern Jackson NC-
Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
506 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
RABUN...MACON...SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...JACKSON...SOUTHWESTERN
SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM EDT...

At 504 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking isolated thunderstorms with
torrential rainfall southeast of Franklin, or 5 miles
northwest of Highlands, moving north at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Franklin, Sylva, Bryson City, Robbinsville, Brevard, Cullowhee,
Highlands, Webster, Dillard and Sky Valley.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8399 3555 8378 3533 8296 3529 8292
      3531 8288 3526 8271 3497 8312 3494 8360
      3495 8355 3499 8355 3499 8349 3500 8352
      3515 8365 3515 8374 3523 8369 3526 8371
      3522 8397 3524 8401 3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 193DEG 39KT 3510 8329

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ010-018-026-028-NCZ052-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-191130-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Rabun GA-Transylvania NC-
Northern Jackson NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Anderson SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FRANKLIN...EASTERN
STEPHENS...NORTHEASTERN RABUN...NORTHWESTERN HART...SOUTHEASTERN
MACON...WESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN
HAYWOOD...NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON...WESTERN PICKENS AND OCONEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 730 AM EDT...

At 645 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southeast of
Sylva to 8 miles northeast of Carnesville, and moving northeast at 45
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clemson, Seneca, Walhalla, Carnesville, Central, Pendleton,
Westminster, Lavonia, Gumlog and Highlands.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3425 8327 3514 8325 3546 8279 3543 8277
      3457 8273 3424 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 1045Z 208DEG 64KT 3526 8312 3447 8314

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
729 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ010-NCZ052-053-063>065-507-509-510-SCZ001>006-191215-
Rabun GA-Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern Polk NC-Haywood NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Southern Jackson NC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Oconee Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
729 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...
TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON...POLK...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN
HAYWOOD...WESTERN BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN GREENVILLE...PICKENS AND
EASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM EDT...

At 728 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 11
miles west of Pickens, or near Keowee Toxaway State Park, moving
northeast at 110 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, Hendersonville, Seneca, Brevard, Walhalla,
Pickens, Columbus, Clemson, East Asheville and Arden.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8205 3519 8214 3520 8222 3514 8222
      3456 8302 3499 8319 3500 8311 3505 8315
      3528 8300 3529 8292 3532 8296 3573 8268
      3576 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1128Z 209DEG 98KT 3494 8291

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
730 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ010-NCZ052-053-063>065-507-509-510-SCZ001>006-191215-
Rabun GA-Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern Polk NC-Haywood NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Southern Jackson NC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Oconee Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
730 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...
TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON...POLK...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN
HAYWOOD...WESTERN BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN GREENVILLE...PICKENS AND
EASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM EDT...

At 728 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 11
miles west of Pickens, or near Keowee Toxaway State Park, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, Hendersonville, Seneca, Brevard, Walhalla,
Pickens, Columbus, Clemson, East Asheville and Arden.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8205 3519 8214 3520 8222 3514 8222
      3456 8302 3499 8319 3500 8311 3505 8315
      3528 8300 3529 8292 3532 8296 3573 8268
      3576 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1128Z 209DEG 98KT 3494 8291

KRENTZ